If Romney ran as an independent (user search)
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  If Romney ran as an independent (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Romney ran as an independent  (Read 4030 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,615
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« on: March 13, 2016, 11:15:01 AM »
« edited: March 13, 2016, 11:19:25 AM by White Light »

I think that Romney should pick a moderate (center-left or center-right) as VP. If his goal is to take the election to the House, he needs to win over some center-left voters too. He'll need to win at least a couple of blue states (like Virginia or Colorado).

Here's a semi-realistic map where no one gets over 270 EVs:

Hillary Clinton: 268 EV's, 47%
Donald Trump: 160 EV's, 30%
Mitt Romney: 110 EV's, 20%

NOTE: I don't think that this map will happen.
I'm just saying that this is a possible map where no one gets over 270.
The reason I shaded Arizona and NC red is because of vote splitting.
AZ and NC could certainly go blue/green.
You guys have to remember that Colorado and Iowa absolutely hate Clinton and Trump.
I could see Romney winning these two states.
What do you guys think.

Why on Earth would Romney win here or Wisconsin? And you can't just say "vote splitting". The Democratic floor here is about 40% (basically Al Franken's 2008 numbers), so even if Trump collapsed here and ended in the single digits Romney would still need at least a quarter of Obama 2012 voters.

And those numbers don't reflect the popular vote at all. Hillary would be winning over 40 states if she had a 17 point lead on the second place candidate. You basically just took the 2012 map and colored some states green.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,615
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2016, 11:21:13 AM »

I think that Romney should pick a moderate (center-left or center-right) as VP. If his goal is to take the election to the House, he needs to win over some center-left voters too. He'll need to win at least a couple of blue states (like Virginia or Colorado).

Here's a semi-realistic map where no one gets over 270 EVs:

Hillary Clinton: 268 EV's, 47%
Donald Trump: 160 EV's, 30%
Mitt Romney: 110 EV's, 20%

NOTE: I don't think that this map will happen.
I'm just saying that this is a possible map where no one gets over 270.
The reason I shaded Arizona and NC red is because of vote splitting.
AZ and NC could certainly go blue/green.
You guys have to remember that Colorado and Iowa absolutely hate Clinton and Trump.
I could see Romney winning these two states.
What do you guys think.

Why on Earth would Romney win here or Wisconsin? And you can't just say "vote splitting". The Democratic floor here is about 40% (basically Al Franken's 2008 numbers), so even if Trump collapsed here and ended in the single digits Romney would still need at least a quarter of Obama 2012 voters.

I don't think this map will happen. I know that Romney wouldn't even come close to winning Wisconsin/Minnesota (he might win Iowa though). I just couldn't think of any other ways Hillary could fall below 270 EV's.

Well if Hillary wins the popular vote by 17 points over second place, she's not falling under 270. That map is basically just 2008 with two states flipped red and a bunch flipped green.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,615
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2016, 12:23:16 PM »

Can we, as a forum, stop trying to push this whole "MODERATE HERO THIRD PARTY" narrative?

How about no. If Trump is the nominee, theirs a large chance of a centrist third party candidate running (IE A JOHN ANDERSON).

Much more possible then another scenarios and discussions involving third parties. If any election is to have a major third party, its this one.

Yes, and could have an impact similar to how John Anderson got a double digit percentage and won electoral votes!

Also Romney is not a centrist.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,615
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2016, 03:32:27 PM »

I'm going to very blunt here: Did any of you pass math classes in high school? Because most of these maps are mathematically impossible, even if you ignore the shading levels.

The map of this scenario if Romney does as well as most of you have him, would not simply be 2008/2012 with a few states flipped to green.
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