If Romney ran as an independent

[RR1997]

If Romney ran as an independent, what would happen?

Do you think Romney will move to the center? I think he'll have to move left on issues like immigration in order to have a broader appeal. He could also become more socially/fiscally moderate. There is a problem with this though. He will be attacked as a flip-flopper. There are upsides and downsides of Romney running a more moderate campaign.

How would he do? I think he'd get 5% of the vote or so.

Who would his VP pick be?

[Famous Mortimer]

He would obviously campaign as pro-immigration since 1) he is actually pro-immigration and 2) that's the establishment's whole reason for not liking Trump

[SingingAnalyst]

Clinton/Castro 49% / 347 EV
Trump/Ventura 44% / 185 EV
Romney/Rubio 5% / 6 EV

[This account no longer in use.]

Can we, as a forum, stop trying to push this whole "MODERATE HERO THIRD PARTY" narrative?

[RR1997]

Can we, as a forum, stop trying to push this whole "MODERATE HERO THIRD PARTY" narrative?

Romney is not a moderate.

[RR1997]

Can we, as a forum, stop trying to push this whole "MODERATE HERO THIRD PARTY" narrative?

Also, I agree that we should stop trying to push the whole "MODERATE HERO THIRD PARTY' narrative, especially when it involves a candidate who hasn't expressed any interest in running, but this is different. There is proof that Romney may run

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The ideal position for Romney would be to go to Trump's right fiscally but have a softer tone on immigration (while still stressing enforcement) and stay away from social issues. This would draw a contrast, give Romney a defensible claim to being the "real" Republican in the race, and keep some conservatives from going Libertarian and some on the moderate fringe from voting Hillary or not at all.

[standwrand]

Fixed it:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/HUD Secretary Julian Castro - 42% / 347 EV
Businessman Donald Drumpf/Gov. Chris Christie - 35% / 168 EV
Former Gov. Mitt Romney/Senator Marco Rubio - 24% / 23 EV

[Fuzzy Bear]

Can we, as a forum, stop trying to push this whole "MODERATE HERO THIRD PARTY" narrative?

Romney is not a moderate.

Romney WAS a moderate, but he made a Faustian bargain with the Movement Conservatives in order to be a viable Presidential candidate in today's GOP.

[Nichlemn]

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/HUD Secretary Julian Castro - 46% / 347 EV
Businessman Donald Drumpf/Gov. Chris Christie - 40% / 168 EV
Former Gov. Mitt Romney/Senator Marco Rubio - 36% / 23 EV

Who's the fourth candidate earning -12% of the vote?

[SingingAnalyst]

wow I messed up

The math and map make sense if you change Romney's 36% to 13%.

[ElectionsGuy]

Romney would probably get something like 15% of the vote and would win one state - Utah. He might have a chance in places like Idaho and Wyoming as well, but that's it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I can't see Romney running as an independent.  I could see some state Republican Parties naming Romney as their Presidential candidate in the vein that George Wallace was the Democratic candidate for President in Alabama in 1968 and Strom Thurmond was the Democratic candidate for President in the Southern states that he won in 1948.

If the GOP got the most electors, the only way to stop Trump would be for enough Faithless Electors to throw the election into the House of Representatives, and for there be more Faithless Electors for some other Republican than for Trump.  Then, the GOP House could elect some other Republican the next President.  It would be raw power politics, and it wouldn't go down well with lots of voters, but it IS, very much, what the Founders had in mind.

[SingingAnalyst]

Here's another possibility:

Clinton/Castro 49% / 512 EV
Trump/Christie 35% / 13 EV
Romney/Kasich 14% / 13 EV

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Fixed it:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/HUD Secretary Julian Castro - 42% / 347 EV
Businessman Donald Drumpf/Gov. Chris Christie - 35% / 168 EV
Former Gov. Mitt Romney/Senator Marco Rubio - 24% / 23 EV

vote splitting doesn't exist in this timeline

[muon2]

If Romney ran as an independent in all 50 states that only works to help Hillary in many swing states with solid Dem constituencies. His best strategy is to run in selected states that give him a few EV while denying both Hillary and Trump 270 EV.

This was part of the analysis Bloomberg did. He concluded that he could throw the election to the House, but then he couldn't win there. If it's Romney in selected states he has a much better path to win in the House than Bloomberg.

[Orser67]

Clinton/Castro 436 EV, 48% PV
Trump/S. Brown 62 EV, 30% PV
Romney/D. Nunes 40 EV, 20% PV

[RaphaelDLG]

Fixed it:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/HUD Secretary Julian Castro - 42% / 347 EV
Businessman Donald Drumpf/Gov. Chris Christie - 35% / 168 EV
Former Gov. Mitt Romney/Senator Marco Rubio - 24% / 23 EV

It's insane to think that two far right candidates would combine for 59% of the vote in a Presidential year.  Democrats can certainly lose, but against modern Republicans they just aren't going below 45%. 

The only way your proposal is possible is if Trump's tax plan and social programs change WAY far to the left.  Recently in an attempt to appeal to donors Trump's been toning down his populist economic rhetoric (which still wasn't terribly left-wing) and tacking to the right.  Unless he totally flip-flops and becomes a liberal as the Republican nominee they will NOT combine for 59% of the country.

[P123]

Can we, as a forum, stop trying to push this whole "MODERATE HERO THIRD PARTY" narrative?

How about no. If Trump is the nominee, theirs a large chance of a centrist third party candidate running (IE A JOHN ANDERSON).

Much more possible then another scenarios and discussions involving third parties. If any election is to have a major third party, its this one.

[P123]

Anyways, if Romney runs third (which honestly is possible based off this years election climate) he would win Utah only and maybe Idaho.

However, if hes lucky this throws the election into the house, were if a majority is not gained he could easily become the next president.

If he was smart and wanted to run third, he'd just get on the ballot in a few western states and blue states (were Trump has no chance) and hope no one gets the 270+ needed to win.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Anyways, if Romney runs third (which honestly is possible based off this years election climate) he would win Utah only and maybe Idaho.

However, if hes lucky this throws the election into the house, were if a majority is not gained he could easily become the next president.

If he was smart and wanted to run third, he'd just get on the ballot in a few western states and blue states (were Trump has no chance) and hope no one gets the 270+ needed to win.

A national campaign would definitely be difficult. If he ran as a third party, Utah would be a lock for Romney. Idaho could be close, but I could see it going for Romney. Trump didn't even break 30% in Idaho. Getting on the ballot in somewhere like California could help boost his popular vote numbers. Trump definitely appears to be less popular in the West. Maybe he could try for somewhere else like Wyoming or Montana. Arizona would go for the Dems if he went there, so that would probably be frowned upon. Maybe a few big states back east like New York and Massachusetts.

I would focus on getting EVs over popular vote, so Rommey should stick to the West. Maybe try to name a moderate VP, potentially a Western moderate, perhaps even a Dem like Brian Schweitzer? The more EVs he has, the better position he's in to bargain. Realistically, he would struggle to break 13 (Utah, Idaho, and maybe Wyoming). That's a whole 2.4% of the Electoral College. At that rate, he'd probably be at about 7-9% of the popular vote assuming he gets on the ballot in some big blue states (which is a decent idea).

Utah is about 69% Mormon, Idaho is about 26% Mormon, Wyoming is third at 11%

[SillyAmerican]

Romney would be (and is) inconsequential this cycle. He had his chance; let's move on...

[LLR]

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 371 EVs, 51%
Donald Trump/Chris Christie: 154 EVs, 39%
W. Mitt Romney/Marco Rubio: 13 EVs, 10%

Closest States:
Alaska decided by 2,700 votes
Arizona decided by 75,000 votes
Georgia decided by 103,000 votes
Idaho decided by 27,000 votes between Trump and Romney
Indiana decided by 20,000 votes
Missouri decided by 69,000 votes
South Carolina decided by 63,000 votes
Wyoming decided by 1,900 votes Trump/Romney

[Ljube]

If Romney ran as an independent in all 50 states that only works to help Hillary in many swing states with solid Dem constituencies. His best strategy is to run in selected states that give him a few EV while denying both Hillary and Trump 270 EV.

This was part of the analysis Bloomberg did. He concluded that he could throw the election to the House, but then he couldn't win there. If it's Romney in selected states he has a much better path to win in the House than Bloomberg.

Which selected states should he run in? Remember, his goal is to stop both Hillary and TRUMP. One would be Utah, of course, which he would win, but which other states?

[RR1997]

I think that Romney should pick a moderate (center-left or center-right) as VP. If his goal is to take the election to the House, he needs to win over some center-left voters too. He'll need to win at least a couple of blue states (like Virginia or Colorado).

Here's a semi-realistic map where no one gets over 270 EVs:

Hillary Clinton: 268 EV's, 47%
Donald Trump: 160 EV's, 30%
Mitt Romney: 110 EV's, 20%

NOTE: I don't think that this map will happen.
I'm just saying that this is a possible map where no one gets over 270.
The reason I shaded Arizona and NC red is because of vote splitting.
AZ and NC could certainly go blue/green.
You guys have to remember that Colorado and Iowa absolutely hate Clinton and Trump.
I could see Romney winning these two states.
What do you guys think?