Republicans fear Midterm losses-In the House

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What district are you in dazzleman?

Christopher Shays, the most endangered Republican incumbent.

I don't know about that. Gerlach had the toughest challenge for an incumbent this past year and his challenger will be back. He better get a better campaign team in 2006/a good amount of money or he might be gone after 2006.

I think he means in CT.

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

I'm betting we get Nussle's seat in Iowa even if he ends up as governor. Nussle is way too right wing for that district.

We can also get MN-1, my district, if Gutknecht runs for Senate, although that's unlikely because the Republicans are trying to talk him out of it to clear the way for Kennedy. Very stupid since Kennedy is obviously a far weaker candidate. Last election:

Gutknecht - breaks 60% in a swing district
Kennedy - only won by 6 points in a comfortably Republican district

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not really that conservative, after all it's got Austin, Albert Lea and Mankato in it. Bush only won it by about 3 points last year and Dayton won it in 2000.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rochester is trending Dem pretty quickly, the DFL gained one of its two House seats last election and is likely to hold Kiscaden's seat since she'll almost certainly run as a DFLer next election. The rural southeast isn't anywhere near as socially conservative as western rural Minnesota (places like Redwood, Otter Tail and Roseau), although the southwest part of that district has some very socially conservative parts (I could actually name towns and how they seem perfectly since I drive through the area a bunch on my way to Sioux Falls and back) they aren't too populated and the area is losing population.

If the GOP loses Rochester (which is very likely in the next 10 years), they lose the district. Rochester as it is now could even be offset if Rice county is added back to the district, hopefully we'll control the next redistricting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

If Kanjorski retires, we have an excellent chance to take down whatever state rep the Democrats put up.  Mayor Barletta, who ran in 2002, lost by 18 points, and could easily get 50% against someone like John Yudichak or Kevin Blaum.

Losing by 18 point is not a very strong showing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not to mention it was basically gerrymandered to increase GOP strength in neighboring districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not to mention it was basically gerrymandered to increase GOP strength in neighboring districts.

And PA 13 and PA 6 were supposed to be good Republican districts. Gerrymandering actions don't necessarily end the way people intend.

well did this one fail? All of the surrounding districts that were supposed to be Republican are pretty safely Republican since this one took in all the Democratic areas.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MD - 2 and MD- 5 may go Republican if Ruppersberger and Hoyer run for senate.

Isn't the Ruppersberger seat Ehlrich's old one that he decided to vacate and run for governor instead because he was almost confident he'd lose in the new district? Although Ruppersberger won the open seat easily.

Both are gerrymandered as hell, so the Democrats screwed up bad if they go Republican. But since Hoyer is the #2 House Democrat, I'd be very suprised if he runs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ruppersberger is already running. Does the GOP really have a shot at those seats? I couldn't imagine Hoyer's seat switching.

Ehrlich used to be the congressman in MD-2, so its definitley possible.

yeah, but wasn't the seat gerrymandered to get rid of him so he decided to run for governor since he thought he'd have no chance in the new district?

man, this is the 2nd district:


If the Democrats went through the trouble of creating that piece of work, I really hope we don't lose it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

wasn't Steele basically a nobody previously anyway?