North Carolina White Democrats (corrected version...)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Miller was one of the architects of the current gerrymander a decade ago; he actually drew his own district. He's f***ed.

Not necessarily. Greensboro has a ton of Democrats and you have to stuff them somewhere.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not like moving is that hard.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My point is more that there's a max number of Republican districts that can be drawn. Schuler can be beat just by splitting Asheville, removing the Raleigh parts from NC-2 will help shore up that crazy lady, completely redrawing how the Charlotte area is districted can eliminate Kissell. But while you can shove all the Democratic parts of Raleigh into Price's seat, you still have to put all the Democrats in Greensboro and High Point somewhere. Watt's seat can't extend that far, I guess you could redraw it and find some way to split up Winston-Salem but that would just put the black parts of Winston-Salem somewhere else and create another problem for Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127790.msg2727615#msg2727615

Why wouldn't the Republicans swing for the fences and try for a 10-3 map? Pretty much every gerrymander they did in 2000 tried to maximize Republican gains at the possible expense of endangering other seats.

Problem is it wouldn't be too hard for a Shuler/McIntyre type Democrat to win many of those ~53% McCain seats. Renee Elmers is such a bad candidate she needs more than a 54% McCain seat to be truly safe.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No they wouldn't. But obviously not every year from 2012-2020 would be like 2010, if any were in fact.

Shuler won only four years ago against a very flawed incumbent. So there you go, Democratic year + lousy candidate = something more likely than not to pop up in the next decade.

I suppose its worth noting that basically all the Republicans from North Carolina except Walter Jones (who now will probably have to deal with constant primary challenges and attacks from the far right...though then again maybe not since his anti-war stance isn't as prominent anymore) are pretty bad candidates. Not a big deal when their seats are drawn as is but dilute them like that and you might have trouble. And that green district is a pretty good example of a seat that could flip if Jones was primaried.

On a side note, anyone find it amusing htmldon would no doubt mope constantly if Jones was primaried even though he would almost certainly be closer to the victorious Republican than Jones with all his neocon views? Has don ever NOT supported a GOP incumbent come to think of it?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's what I would do if I were a GOP gerrymanderer:

-Remove the part of Raleigh from NC-02 to shore up that crazy lady. I can get it to about 57% McCain. That's probably enough for the short term at least though go much lower and she could go down considering how awful of a candidate she is (She's basically up there with O'Donnell and Angle.)
-Split Asheville to take out Shuler.
-Redraw the entire Charlotte area and shove most of the white liberal areas into Watt's district as well. You can then get two other Republican Charlotte area seats. I was able to get one 56% and one 57% McCain.

McIntyre has enough of a base that a 55% or so McCain seat would be survivable for him, and even if Miller drew his own seat, the truth is it does do a good job of putting a bunch of Democrats in Raleigh and Greensboro somewhere that isn't a Republican seat. Obviously Price's seat is going to move from suburban Wake County to Raleigh proper, but there's still that huge black population in Greensboro. It wouldn't be so much of a problem if NC Republicans pretty much always tend to be wretched (must be residual from Jesse Helms or something.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also North Carolina has primary runoffs.