French Deparmental and Regional elections - 20th/27th June 2021

[FredLindq]

Projections  based on the latest opinion polls

Île-de-France
Candidate              Party                 Opinion polls First round/Second round
Nathalie Arthaud   LO                      1,7%, -      
Clémentine Autain   LFI-PCF              10%, -, Supports EELV
Audrey Pulvar      PS-PRG-GRS      10,3%, Supports EELV
Julien Bayou      EÉLV-G·s-CÉ-GÉ            11,8%, 27,3%      
Victor Pailhac      REV                       0,5%, -      
Éric Berlingen      UDMF               0,3%, -      
Fabiola Conti      Volt-PACE-NC-ANLD   0,5%, -      
Laurent Saint-Martin   LREM-MoDem-Agir   13,5%, 15,8%         
Valérie Pécresse    SL-LR-UDI-MEI      33,8%, 38,3%      
Jordan Bardella           RN-LDP              17,8%, 19,0%   
                  
Incumbent: Xavier Valérie Pécresse (SL)
Leans: Xavier Valérie Pécresse (SL)
Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Chantal Gomez13   LO      1,5%, -
Cécile Cukierman   PCF-LFI-E!      5,7%, EELV
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem   PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ-PCF diss.   11,0%, EELV
Farid Omeir      UDMF      0,5%, -      
Fabienne Grébert   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-MdP-ND-AE   11,0%, 24,0%      
Bruno Bonnell      MR-LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP   14,0%, 15,7%      
Laurent Wauquiez   LR-UDI-LC-LMR    34,3%, 38%      
Andréa Kotarac   PL-RN-LDP-LAF   22,0%, 22,3%
               
Incumbent: Laurent Wauquiez (LR)
Leans: Laurent Wauquiez (LR)
Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold

Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Guillaume Perchet   LO      1,5%,-   
Clémence Guetté   LFI-NPA diss.-PCF diss.   4,0%, PS
Alain Rousset      PS-PRG-PCF-PP-LEF   25,0%, 36,5%      
Nicolas Thierry   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-CÉ-GRS-PA   10,0%, PS
Geneviève Darrieussecq    MoDem-LREM-Agir-TdP-UDI-MR 18,0%, 21,5%   
Eddie Puyjalon   LMR-RES-MDC-UPF-RPF   3,0%, -      
Nicolas Florian   LR-LC-UDI diss.-MR diss.   13,5%, 16,0%      
Edwige Diaz   RN-LDP-PL-LAF      25,0%, 26,0%   

If Nicolas Florian (LR) withdraws and support Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem) in the second round would be PS 42%, LREM 30% and FN 28% so still safe PS.               

Incumbent: Alain Rousset (PS)
Leans: Alain Rousset (PS)
Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold

Occitanie
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Malena Adrada   LO      1,5%, -
Myriam Martin   LFI-PG-E!-GDS-NPA   4,3%, PS
Carole Delga      PS-PRG-PCF-PP-MRC-GRS-OE  29,5%, 40,5%
Antoine Maurice   EÉLV-G•s-GÉ-CÉ-PA-RPS-MEI-POC 9,0%, PS      
Jean-Luc Davezac   OPN-RES      1,0%, -      
Vincent Terrail-Novès   DVC-LREM-MoDem-Agir-MR-TdP 11,0%, 13,5%
Aurélien Pradié   LR-UDI-LC-LMR   11,5%, 13,0%      
Jean-Paul Garraud   LDP-RN-PL-LAF   32,0%, 33,0%                        

Incumbent: Carole Delga (PS)
 Leans: Carole Delga (PS)
Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold
         

Hauts-de-France
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Éric Pecqueur      LO      1,7%,  -            
Karima Delli      EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-G·s-LFI-GÉ    19%, 19,3%,    
Laurent Pietraszewski   LREM-MoDem-Agir   10,7%, 10,7%,      
Xavier Bertrand    LR-UDI-SL-LMR   34%, 35,7 %      
José Evrard      DLF      2,3%, -,       
Sébastien Chenu   RN-LDP-CNIP      32%, 34,3%

If Laurent Pietraszewski (LREM) withdraws and support Xavier Bertrand (LR) in the second round would be LR 44%, RN 35% and EELV 21% so it would be safe LR.

Incumbent: Xavier Bertrand (LR)
Leans: Xavier Bertrand (LR)
Projection: Toss up or  Leans LR (Right) - Right Hold

Grand Est
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Louise Fève      LO      1,5%, -
Aurélie Filippetti    G·s-LFI-GRS-LRDG-GDS-PS diss.-PCF diss. 6,0%, EELV
Éliane Romani      EÉLV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GÉ-MdP   14,0%, 20,0%
Martin Meyer      UL      3,0%, -   
Adil Tyane      UDMF      1,0%, -      
Brigitte Klinkert   DVD-LREM-TdP-MoDem-Agir    15,0%, 19,0%
Jean Rottner      LR-UDI-MR-MHAN-LMRNote    27,5%, 30,0%   
Laurent Jacobelli   RN-LDP-CNIP-PL-DR-LAF   25,0%, 31%
Florian Philippot   LP-VIA      7,0%, -      

Brigitte Klinkert (DVD) withdraws and support Jean Rottner (LR) in the second round, it would be LR 45%, RN 31% and EELV 24%, so it would be safe LR.

Incumbent: Jean Rottner    (LR)
Leans: Toss up between Jean Rottner (LR) right and Laurent Jacobelli (RN) Ext. R
Projection: Toss up or Leans LR (Right) - Right Hold


Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Isabelle Bonnet   LO      1,3%, -   
Jean-Laurent Félizia   EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-GRS-G.s-GÉ 16,3%, 21%
Jean-Marc Governatori   CÉ      3,0%, -
Hervé Guerrera   POC      0,4%, -   
Mikael Vincenzi   DIV      0,8%, -, -   
Renaud Muselier *   LR-UDI-LREM-MoDem-Agir-LMR 33,3%. 34,5%
Noël Chuisano      DLF      1,8%, -   
Thierry Mariani   LDP-RN-CNIP      41,8%. 44,5%
Valérie Laupies   LS      1,6%,

if Jean-Laurent Félizia (EELV) withdraws and support  Renaud Muselier(LR) in the second round, it would be LDP 51,3% and LR 48,7%, so the scond round so it would be a toss up

Incumbent: Renaud Muselier (LR)
Leans: Toss up beteende Renaud Muselier (LR) and Thierry Mariani (LDP)
Projection: Toss up, or Leans LDP (Extreme Right) – Extreme Right gain
         
Pays de la Loire
Second round: Left 32%, LREM  22,5%, Right 25%, Ext Right 20,5%
Incumbent:  Christelle Morançais (LR)
Leans: Mattgieu Orphelin (EELV)
Projection: Leans EELV (Left) – Left gain


Bretagne
Second round: Left 39%, LREM  21%, Right 16%, Ext Right 24%
Incumbent: Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS)
Leans: Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS)
Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold

Normandie
Scond round: Left 25,7%, LREM  15%, Right 31,3%, Ext Right 28%
If Bonnaterre (TdP), centre supports Hervé Morin (LC) in the second round, it would be Right 42%, Ext right 29% and left 29%, and it would be a safe Right
Incumbent: Hervé Morin (LC), right
Leans: Toss up between Hervé Morin (LC), right and Nicolas Bay (RN) extreme right
Projection: Tossup or Leans LC (Right) - Right Hold


Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Second round: Left 27%, LREM  17%, Right 24%, Ext Right 32%
If Thuriot (LREM), centre support Platret (LR), right in the second round would be Left 35%, Right 33% and 42% and Ext right 32%, so it would be clear toss up
Incumbent:   Marie-Guite Dufay (PS)
Leans: Toss up between Marie-Guite Dufay (PS) and Julien Odoul (RN), extre right or even Platret (LR), right.
Projection: Tossup

Centre-Val de Loire
Second round: Left 29%, MoDem, centre 25%, Right 16%, Ext Right 30%
If  Nicolas Forissier (LR), right, withdraws and supports Marc Fesneau MoDem, centre, in the second round, it would be Left 34%, Centre 33% and Ext right 33%, and iit would be clear toss up
Incumbent: François Bonneau (PS)
Leans: Toss up between Marie-Guite Dufay (PS) and JNikolic (RN), extrme right, or even  Marc Fesneau MoDem, centre.
Projection: Tossup


Corse
First round: Reginalists 50%, Left 13%, TDP, centre 9%, Right 23%, Ext Right 5%
Incumbent: Président de l'assemblée de Corse   Jean-Guy Talamoni (CL), regonalist Sepatarist, Left,
and Président du conseil exécutif de Corse  Gilles Simeoni (FC), regionalist, autonomist, nationalist
Leans: Gilles Simeoni (FC), autonomist, nationalist
Projection: Safe FC (Regionalist)– Regionalist Hold

[FredLindq]

Updated.

Summary of the first round

Île-de-France
Candidate              Party                 First round
Valérie Pécresse    SL-LR-UDI-MEI     35,9%
Jordan Bardella           RN-LDP              13,1%
 Julien Bayou      EÉLV-G·s-CÉ-GÉ            13,0 (34,3% in total)
(Merged list with    Audrey Pulvar, PS-PRG-GRS 11,1% and Clémentine Autain  LFI-PCF 10,2%)    
Laurent Saint-Martin   LREM-MoDem-Agir  11,8%
 
It seems like Laurent Saint-Martin   LREM-MoDem-Agir  11,8% will not withdraw and support Valérie Pécresse   in the second round.
                
Projection: Toss up between Right and Left, Left might gain


Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Candidate              Party                 First round
Laurent Wauquiez   LR-UDI-LC-LMR  43,8%
Fabienne Grébert   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-MdP-ND-AE 14,5% (32,0% in total)
(Merged with Cécile Cukierman   PCF-LFI-E! 5,6% Najat Vallaud-Belkacem  PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ-PCF diss. 11,4%)
Andréa Kotarac   PL-RN-LDP-LAF   12,3%

Bruno Bonnell  from MR-LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP got 9,9% and failed to enter the second round which will mainly benefit Laurent Wauquiez.

Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold


Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Candidate              Party                 First round
Alain Rousset      PS-PRG-PCF-PP-LEF   28,8%
Edwige Diaz   RN-LDP-PL-LAF      18,2%
Geneviève Darrieussecq    MoDem-LREM-Agir-TdP-UDI-MR 13,7%
Nicolas Florian   LR-LC-UDI diss.-MR diss.   12,5%
Nicolas Thierry   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-CÉ-GRS-PA 12,1%

Nota bene. No merger between PS and EELV lists or the list lead by Clémence Guetté  LFI-NPA diss.-PCF diss. 5,7%)

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Occitanie
Candidate              Party                 First round
Carole Delga      PS-PRG-PCF-PP-MRC-GRS-OE 39,6% (53,5% in total)
Jean-Paul Garraud   LDP-RN-PL-LAF    22,6%
Aurélien Pradié   LR-UDI-LC-LMR   12,2%

Nota bene. No merger between  PS and the lists led by Antoine Maurice, EÉLV-G•s-GÉ-CÉ-PA-RPS-MEI-POC 8,8%, and  and Myriam Martin, LFI-PG-E!-GDS-NPA 5,1%.
Vincent Terrail-Novès  from DVC-LREM-MoDem-Agir-MR-TdP  got 8,8% % and failed to enter the second round which will mainly benefit Aurélien Pradié  

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Hauts-de-France
Candidate              Party                 First round
Xavier Bertrand    LR-UDI-SL-LMR    41,4%
Sébastien Chenu   RN-LDP-CNIP    24,4%
Karima Delli      EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-G·s-LFI-GÉ  19,0%

Laurent Pietraszewski  from  LREM-MoDem-Agir got 9,1% % and failed to enter the second round which will mainly benefit Xavier Bertrand  

Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold


Grand Est
Candidate              Party                 First round
Jean Rottner      LR-UDI-MR-MHAN-LMRNote  31,2%
Laurent Jacobelli   RN-LDP-CNIP-PL-DR-LAF  21,1%
Éliane Romani      EÉLV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GÉ-MdP  14,6%
Brigitte Klinkert   DVD-LREM-TdP-MoDem-A 10,8%
  
Nota bene. No merger between PS and the list led by Aurélie Filippetti  G·s-LFI-GRS-LRDG-GDS-PS diss.-PCF diss. 8,6%.
It seems like Brigitte Klinkert (DVD) will not withdraw and support Jean Rottner (LR) in the second round.

Projection: Leans LR (Right) - Right Hold


Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Candidate              Party                 First round
Thierry Mariani      LDP-RN-CNIP  36,4%
Renaud Muselier    LR-UDI-LREM-MoDem-Agir-LMR 31,9%


Jean-Laurent Félizia   EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-GRS-G.s-GÉ 16,9% decided to withdraw and support Renaud Muselier (LR) in the second round so the second round so it would be a toss up.

Projection: Toss up between extreme right and right, Extreme right might gain


Pays de la Loire
Into the Second round: Left 35,0% (18,7%+16,3% merger between PS and EELV), Right 34,3%, Extreme right 12,5%, LREM 12,0%
Nota bene.  It seems like LREM will not withdraw and support LR in the second round.

Projection: Toss up between Right and Left, Left might gain


Bretagne
Into the Second round: Left 27,5% (21,0%+Daniel Cueff, Ecologist,  6,3%), Right 16,3%, LREM 15,5%, EELV 14,8%, Extreme right 14,3%
Nota bene. No merger between PS a EELV or LFI 5,6%.

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Normandie
Into the Second round: Right 36,9%, Extreme Right 19,9%, Left 18,4%, LREM 11,1%

Nota bene. No merger between PS and the EELV 9,6%
Projection: Safe LC (Right) - Right Hold


Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Into the Second round: Left 36,8%% (26,5%+10,3%, merger between PS and EELV), Extreme Right 23,2%, Right 21,0%, LREM 11,7%
Nota bene. No merger between PS and LFI 4,5%
Nota bene.  It seems like LREM will not withdraw and support LR in the second round.

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Centre-Val de Loire
Into the Second round: Left 35,7% (24,8%+10,9% merger between PS and EELV), Extreme Right 22,2%, Right 18,8%, LREM 16,7%
No merger between PS and LFI 4,1%
Nota bene.  It seems like LREM will not withdraw and support LR in the second round.

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Corse
First round: FC (Regionalist, nationalist) 29,2%, Right 24,9%, PNC (regionalist, left, autonomist) 13,2%, R (regionalist, left, autonomist) 8,4%, Left 7,0% (3,8%+3,2%). CL (regionalist, extreme left, nationalist) 6,9%, TDP-LREM 5,9%, Extreme Right 4,6% (4,0%+0,6%)

Into the Second round (8%-threshold): FC (Regionalist, nationalist) 29,2%, Right 24,9%, PNC (regionalist, left, autonomist) 13,2% and R (regionalist, left, autonomist) 8,4%,

Nota bene. Talks about merging lists are ongoing.


Projection: Safe FC (Regionalist)– Regionalist Hold


Summary:
Safe or leans right: 4
Safe left: 5
Safe: Regionalist 1
Toss up: 3 (Île-de-France and Pays de la Loire between right and left and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur between Right and Extreme Right)

[FredLindq]

Opinion polls before the second round

Île-de-France
Candidate              Party                 First round       Opinion polls (2)
Valérie Pécresse    SL-LR-UDI-MEI     35,9%             43,5%
 Julien Bayou      EÉLV-G·s-CÉ-GÉ            13,0 (34,3% in total) 31,0%
(Merged list with    Audrey Pulvar, PS-PRG-GRS 11,1% and Clémentine Autain  LFI-PCF 10,2%)  
Jordan Bardella           RN-LDP              13,1%.        13,0%
Laurent Saint-Martin   LREM-MoDem-Agir  11,            12,5%

Projection : Leans LR - Right holds

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Candidate              Party                 First round       Opinion polls (1)
Laurent Wauquiez   LR-UDI-LC-LMR  43,8%              58%
Fabienne Grébert   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-MdP-ND-AE 14,5% (32,0% in total) 29%
(Merged with Cécile Cukierman   PCF-LFI-E! 5,6% Najat Vallaud-Belkacem  PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ-PCF diss. 11,4%)
Andréa Kotarac   PL-RN-LDP-LAF   12,3%                  13%

Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold

Hauts-de-France
Candidate              Party                 First round       Opinion polls (1)
Xavier Bertrand    LR-UDI-SL-LMR    41,4%.             53%
Sébastien Chenu   RN-LDP-CNIP    24,4%.                26%
Karima Delli      EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-G·s-LFI-GÉ  19,0% 21%

Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Candidate              Party                 First round       Opinion polls (2)
Renaud Muselier    LR-UDI-LREM-MoDem-Agir-LMR 31,9% 50,5%
Thierry Mariani      LDP-RN-CNIP  36,4%.                         49,5%

Projection: Toss up between extreme right and right, Extreme right might gain