Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking

[eric82oslo]

Do we really think going off approvals, for example, Virginia is going to vote to the right of Iowa? Wisconsin and Michigan to vote to the left of Nevada?

Together with Colorado and Massachusetts, I suppose Virginia has the most well-educated Democratic electorate, which should explain that they tend to have higher Democratic turnout than most other states. Though there are exceptions, like in 2014 when Mark Warner almost lost reelection.

[eric82oslo]

Morning Consult has added the month of May to their Trump approval website - the 29th month counting. And once more we are seeing a handful of states with their worst Trump approval ever, this time the furious six are Maryland (-31%), Washington (-30%), New Hampshire (-19%), Alaska (+/-0%), North Dakota (+1%) and Wyoming (+22%).

Pennsylvania is getting awfully close to overtake Nevada as the ultimate tipping point state, something that will probably happen in 3 or 4 more months if current trends continue.

Also, Arizona for the first time tipped from a positive to a negative overall Trump approval, even if it's basically up for grabs for the moment.

Expect changes in the map below next month, as Ohio is more than 50% likely to go from toss up status to lean Democratic, while North Carolina is more than 50% likely to go from lean Republican to toss up. Exciting days ahead.

Iowa, Wisconsin and South Dakota moved in an even more partisan direction in May, colouring them one shade darker:

No change in the EV count:

Dem: 285
Rep: 224
Toss up: 29





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till May 2019:

1. D.C.: -1624















2. Hawaii: -792
3. Vermont: -782
4. Massachusetts: -758


5. Maryland: -682

6. California: -642

7. Washington: -591

8. Rhode Island: -546
9. Connecticut: -502
10. Oregon: -501

11. Illinois: -494
12. New York: -479

13. New Jersey: -409

14. Minnesota: -389

15. New Hampshire: -349
16. Delaware: -338
17. Colorado: -322
18. Wisconsin: -307

19. Michigan: -279
20. New Mexico: -265

21. Maine: -222
22. Iowa: -201


23. Pennsylvania: -123
24. Nevada: -113 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -90

26. Ohio: -47
27. Arizona: -3


28. North Carolina: +52
29. Florida: +96

30. Utah: +108
31. Georgia: +118

32. Indiana: +169
33. Missouri: +172
34. Nebraska: +190

35. Texas: +206
36. Kansas: +206
37. Montana: +208
38. North Dakota: +224


39. Alaska: +303
40. South Carolina: +330

41. South Dakota: +353
42. Arkansas: +388

43. Idaho: +448
44. Kentucky: +449

45. Oklahoma: +455
46. Tennessee: +475

47. Mississippi: +541

48. Louisiana: +575


49. West Virginia: +684

50. Alabama: +735



51. Wyoming: +861



Here are the twelve states which have changed the most times between a monthly approval and disapproval of the president, thus making them very competitive in 2020, one would imagine:

1. North Carolina: 14 approvals/5 tied/10 disapprovals (48% Trumpian, 34.5% Democratic)
2. Utah: 17/2/10 (59% Trumpian, 34.5% Democratic)
3. Arizona: 9/3/17 (59% Democratic, 31% Trumpian)
4. Florida: 18/3/8 (62% Trumpian, 28% Democratic)
5. Ohio: 6/3/20 (69% Democratic, 24% Trumpian)
6. Virginia: 6/0/22 (76% Democratic)
7. Nevada: 5/1/23 (79% Democratic, 17% Trumpian)
8. Georgia: 23/2/4 (79% Trumpian, 14% Democratic)
9. New Mexico: 5/0/24 (83% Democratic)
10. Pennsylvania: 4/1/24 (83% Democratic, 14% Trumpian)
11. Iowa: 4/0/25 (86% Democratic)
12. Delaware: 4/0/25 (86% Democratic)



Here are the 10 most stable states in the polling so far (least difference between high and low approval):

1. Maryland: 19%
2. Pennsylvania: 20%
2. South Carolina: 20%
2. New Hampshire: 20%
5. Georgia: 21%
5. New Jersey: 21%
5. Virginia: 21%
8. Ohio: 22%
8. North Carolina: 22%
8. Wisconsin: 22%
8. Alabama: 22%


And here are the 10 most volatile states:

1. New Mexico: 43%
2. Alaska: 37%
3. Utah: 36%
4. Vermont: 35%
(Washington D.C.: 35%)
5. Illinois: 33%
5. Connecticut: 33%
7. New York: 32%
8. Washington: 31%
8. Delaware: 31%
10. Nevada: 30%


As we can observe from these two lists, most battlegrounds appear to be rather stable, not changing around much from month to month. Pennsylvania is a good example of that, which almost every single month has given Trump a disapproval number in the single digits.

[eric82oslo]

Another half a dozen states had their worst Trump approval ever in June, Trump's 30th month in office: New York (-24), New Hampshire (-22%), Arizona (-7%), South Dakota (+4), Arkansas (+6) and Wyoming (+22%). Additionally we saw two sets of states changing places in the ranking: Kansas inching out Texas for the 34th most Democratic/anti-Trump state (35th with DC) and Kentucky overtaking Idaho's 43rd place.

Among the battlegrounds, two major changes occurred; North Carolina went from leaning Republican to toss up, while Ohio went from toss up to leaning Democratic! That still leaves us with two toss up states right now; Arizona and North Carolina.

Tipping point Nevada's average Trump disapproval during his first 30 months has been -4.1%. Over the last 7 months, however, that disapproval has increased to -10%, on average.

Finally some major changes in the EV count:

Democratic: 303 (+18)
Republican: 209 (-15)
Toss up: 26 (-3)





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till June 2019:

1. D.C.: -1683















2. Hawaii: -815
3. Vermont: -810

4. Massachusetts: -784


5. Maryland: -710

6. California: -671

7. Washington: -619

8. Rhode Island: -567

9. Connecticut: -524
10. Oregon: -519
11. Illinois: -514
12. New York: -503


13. New Jersey: -424
14. Minnesota: -405

15. New Hampshire: -371

16. Delaware: -347
17. Colorado: -334
18. Wisconsin: -321

19. Michigan: -294
20. New Mexico: -281

21. Maine: -233
22. Iowa: -213


23. Pennsylvania: -132
24. Nevada: -122 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -94
26. Ohio: -54

27. Arizona: -10


28. North Carolina: +49

29. Florida: +93

30. Utah: +110
31. Georgia: +118

32. Indiana: +170
33. Missouri: +173
34. Nebraska: +191

35. Kansas: +208
36. Texas: +210
37. Montana: +214
38. North Dakota: +231


39. Alaska: +306
40. South Carolina: +337

41. South Dakota: +357
42. Arkansas: +394


43. Kentucky: +464
44. Idaho: +466
45. Oklahoma: +467
46. Tennessee: +493


47. Mississippi: +559
48. Louisiana: +589



49. West Virginia: +703

50. Alabama: +759


51. Wyoming: +883

[eric82oslo]

This map is trash, OH is lean R at a minimum, VA is likely D, and WI is a Toss up

The Virginia numbers are indeed very different from what other pollsters like Gallup have been showing, however Wisconsin and Ohio are not all that different.

[eric82oslo]

WI is D+2 state and OH is R+3 state, this map shows that Trump doesnt have a chance

This map is actually extremely generous towards Trump as it also includes his honey moon period of the first 4 to 6 months in office when he had a positive job approval in almost every state. If you read the beginning of this thread, you will see that several posters heavily critizised me for including his honey moon period as they considered it totally irrelevant and thus conflating Trump's numbers by a lot. I personally think I've struck the right balance. I want to be objective by including all numbers, not just a selective number of them.

[eric82oslo]

This map is trash, OH is lean R at a minimum, VA is likely D, and WI is a Toss up

The Virginia numbers are indeed very different from what other pollsters like Google has been showing, however Wisconsin and Ohio are not all that different.

2018 exit polls (a D+9 electorate)

OH: 53/46 A
WI: 48/52 A
VA: 43/55 A

You tell that to Morning Consult. I'm just aggregating the numbers. Apparently they're considered serious enough that 538 decided to start a close partnership with them. They've also won multiple awards during the past 3-4 years.

I do have a strange feeling that they might be contacting the same voters every month though, since their numbers in states like Virginia and Pennsylvania don't seem to change very much one month till the next. In smaller states they tend to change more though.

[eric82oslo]

WI is D+2 state and OH is R+3 state, this map shows that Trump doesnt have a chance

This map is actually extremely generous towards Trump as it also includes his honey moon period of the first 4 to 6 months in office when he had a positive job approval in almost every state. If you read the beginning of this thread, you will see that several posters heavily criticised me for including his honey moon period as they considered it totally irrelevant and thus conflating Trump's numbers by a lot. I personally think I've struck the right balance. I want to be objective by including all numbers, not just a selective number of them.

It would be possible to

(1) dump the earliest months as they are no longer relevant, or
(2) use only he latest six months.

Obviously the most relevant polls before the election itself will be those that appear closest to the election itself.  Barring a 9/11-style event that he handles at least somewhat properly, he will never get anywhere near his 'honeymoon' numbers.

I know, but on the other side: People who don't already disapprove of Trump's performance by now - unless some major changes occur, will either vote for him or vote for a third party. Incumbent presidents always do at least somewhat better than their latest approval numbers would suggest.

[eric82oslo]

I don't want to speak too soon, but it's almost like the Midwest is waking up out of its stupid coma

Political interest has skyrocketed after Trump became president - which we saw in 2018 which had almost presidential level turnout - and if there's one thing high turnout is a sign of, it's a really strong showing for the Democratic party, as young voters and minorities who historically are not voting at high rates, are often staunchly Democratic if they only bother to vote.

Much of the reason Trump managed to eke out victories in a handful of Midwestern states was due to abysmal turnout rates amoung youngsters and minorities who really couldn't care less. Now however they will care, cause they've witnessed first hand what atrocious damages Trump has been able to inflict upon the country and the rest of the world in such a short time.

[eric82oslo]

MC's numbers are trash, before the 2018 midterms their numbers had Trumps approval 4 to 6% lower in states like Ohio and Wisconsin than the exit polls did.

It's interesting since most other pollsters like Gallup and so on always give Democrats an advantage of 5-15% stronger than what Morning Consult does. The only pollster which consistantly is more pro-Republican than Morning Consult is in fact Rasmussen Reports.

[eric82oslo]

Not all that big changes in Morning Consult's state approval numbers for July, but two things strike as rather important. For the first time since Trump was inaugurated, Vermont is now ranked as the least Trump-friendly state, ever so slightly surpassing Hawaii. Also, four red, Republican states showed their worst Trump approval ever in July 2019; Arizona (-7%), Alaska (-2%!), Nebraska (-1%) and Wyoming (+21%), all western or semi-western states interestingly enough.

Nevada keeps moving closer to Pennsylvania every month now. If current trends continue, Pennsylvania will overtake Nevada to become the tipping point state in only four more months. (New Mexico could also overtake Michigan in six months or so.)

No changes in the EV count this month:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till July 2019:

1. D.C.: -1744

















2. Vermont: -839
3. Hawaii: -837
4. Massachusetts: -814


5. Maryland: -737
6. California: -700


7. Washington: -646

8. Rhode Island: -587

9. Connecticut: -546
10. Oregon: -539
11. Illinois: -533
12. New York: -527


13. New Jersey: -439
14. Minnesota: -419

15. New Hampshire: -388
16. Delaware: -359

17. Colorado: -346
18. Wisconsin: -335
19. Michigan: -305

20. New Mexico: -294

21. Maine: -246
22. Iowa: -224


23. Pennsylvania: -140
24. Nevada: -133 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -98
26. Ohio: -60

27. Arizona: -17


28. North Carolina: +48

29. Florida: +92

30. Utah: +113
31. Georgia: +120

32. Indiana: +175
33. Missouri: +179
34. Nebraska: +190

35. Kansas: +213
36. Texas: +216
37. Montana: +220
38. North Dakota: +236


39. Alaska: +304
40. South Carolina: +348

41. South Dakota: +367

42. Arkansas: +403

43. Kentucky: +479
44. Idaho: +482
45. Oklahoma: +483

46. Tennessee: +513

47. Mississippi: +581

48. Louisiana: +607


49. West Virginia: +721

50. Alabama: +785



51. Wyoming: +904

[eric82oslo]

It isn't an implausible map if Dems have an extremely strong message in the Midwest.

Count on Yang to give that message. The economic message of a Yang/Warren ticket would be killer and transformational in the rust belt region.

[eric82oslo]

One potential way of predicting swings could be to compare the final results of the 2016 election with current polling in each of those states on Trump's job approval. Using the net approval however can be tricky due to most states usually voting in a more partisan way than what polls in advance are predicting. Thus I thought I would compare each state instead by looking at how the ranking of states from most Democratic to most Republican has changed over the past 2 years and 7 months.

So here is the Morning Consult ranking of states based on Trump's approval during his first 31 months in office, with the changes from the 2016 presidential election in parenthesis:

1. Washington D.C. (no change)
2. Vermont (+4)
3. Hawaii (-1)
4. Massachusetts (no change)
5. Maryland (no change)
6. California (-3)
7. Washington (+2)
8. Rhode Island (+2)
9. Connecticut (+3)
10. Oregon (+4)
11. Illinois (-3)
12. New York (-5)
13. New Jersey (-2)
14. Minnesota (+6)
15. New Hampshire (+6)
16. Delaware (-3)
17. Colorado (no change)
18. Wisconsin (+6)
19. Michigan (+3)
20. New Mexico (-5)
21. Maine (-3)
22. Iowa (+9)
23. Pennsylvania (no change)
24. Nevada (-5)
25. Virginia (-9)
26. Ohio (+3)
27. Arizona (-1)
28. North Carolina (-1)
29. Florida (-4)
30. Utah (+5)
31. Georgia (-3)
32. Indiana (+5)
33. Missouri (+3)
34. Nebraska (+7)
35. Kansas (+5)
36. Texas (-6)
37. Montana (+2)
38. North Dakota (+10)
39. Alaska (-6)
40. South Carolina (-8)
41. South Dakota (+4)
42. Arkansas (+1)
43. Kentucky (+5)
44. Idaho (+3)
45. Oklahoma (+4)
46. Tennessee (-4)
47. Mississippi (-13)
48. Louisiana (-10)
49. West Virginia (+1)
50. Alabama (-6)
51. Wyoming (no change)

As we see, the biggest ranking changes have occurred in Mississippi (by far), Louisiana and North Dakota.


These ranking changes thus give us this trend map 2020:

It looks like most of the north - with a few exceptions - is rapidly trending Democratic, while almost the entire south - from Hawaii and California in the west, to Florida and Virginia in the east - is trending Republican. The northeast and larger D.C. area are perhaps the two regions with the least changes overall, with trends going all over the place. The region which is most firmly trending Democratic, is the agricultural Great Plains states around Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Minnesota, while the region most clearly trending Republican are the Deep South states with tons of African Americans, which could explain the stubborn blueness of supposed purple states like Texas, Florida and Georgia too.


For color explanations:

Green: No change
30% shade: 1 place up/down on ranking
40%: 2 places
50%: 3 places
60%: 4 places
70%: 5 places
80%: 6 places
90%: 7 places or more

[eric82oslo]

Another month - the 32nd so far - and another set of states with their worst Trump approval ever - 7 this time; California (-30), Washington (-30), New York (-24), Colorado (-18), the still tipping point state of Nevada (-14!), Montana (+/-0) and Wyoming (+21).

If this month's trends continue, it means that Pennsylvania will overtake Nevada to become the tipping point state next month. Also next month Ohio is expected to overtake Iowa in tipping point stature, becoming the 4th most important state to watch for in 2020 after Pennsylvania, Nevada and Virginia.

Virginia is no longer lean Democratic, but has moved into the likely category. The blackface-debacle might finally start to be fading from that state's voters' minds, as well as the state of the economy's downward trend/hardening trade war finally starting to worry the many millionaires living in its DC suburbs.

As things have turned sour for Trump in New Mexico recently, the state is expected to overtake Michigan in a couple of months, thus possibly making Michigan the 8th closest state to reach tipping point status come 2020.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till August 2019:

1. D.C.: -1807


















2. Vermont: -872
3. Hawaii: -863

4. Massachusetts: -846

5. Maryland: -765

6. California: -730

7. Washington: -676

8. Rhode Island: -609

9. Connecticut: -570
10. Oregon: -561
11. Illinois: -554
12. New York: -551


13. New Jersey: -457

14. Minnesota: -433
15. New Hampshire: -408

16. Delaware: -375
17. Colorado: -364

18. Wisconsin: -349
19. Michigan: -318
20. New Mexico: -311

21. Maine: -259

22. Iowa: -233


23. Pennsylvania: -149
24. Nevada: -147 (tipping point!)
25. Virginia: -105

26. Ohio: -65

27. Arizona: -21


28. North Carolina: +46

29. Florida: +92

30. Utah: +114
31. Georgia: +119

32. Indiana: +177
33. Missouri: +184
34. Nebraska: +192

35. Kansas: +217
36. Montana: +220
37. Texas: +220
38. North Dakota: +244


39. Alaska: +305

40. South Carolina: +358
41. South Dakota: +372

42. Arkansas: +412

43. Kentucky: +494
44. Idaho: +496
45. Oklahoma: +497

46. Tennessee: +531


47. Mississippi: +601
48. Louisiana: +621


49. West Virginia: +741


50. Alabama: +809


51. Wyoming: +925

[eric82oslo]

Some major changes this month. In the 33rd month of Trump's presidency, we have no less than 8 - I repeat eight - states with their worst Trump approval ever: Oregon (-24), New Hampshire (-23), Iowa (-14), Montana (-3), Nebraska (-2), South Dakota (+1), Arkansas (+4) & Wyoming (+16!).

For the four early primary states, all the campaigning going on there lately seems to really be taking its rough toll on Trump's approval there! Even Nevada and South Carolina are very near their all time low Trump approvals this month.

However, even much more important than that, we finally have a new tipping point state, as PENNSYLVANIA replaces Nevada!

In addition, both Pennsylvania and Nevada are moved from being somewhat likely Democratic into the fairly likely category (from 40% to 50% confidence). Wisconsin is also moved from being 80% solidly Democratic and into he 90% solidly percentile.

Montana with its worst Trump approval ever, surpasses Kansas and is now the 34th most Democratic state. More impressive though, Oklahoma manages to leap ahead of no less than two states, both Kentucky and Idaho, making Oklahoma now the 43rd most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till September 2019:

1. D.C.: -1862


















2. Vermont: -905

3. Hawaii: -892
4. Massachusetts: -877


5. Maryland: -790
6. California: -758

7. Washington: -705


8. Rhode Island: -628

9. Connecticut: -593
10. Oregon: -585
11. Illinois: -576
12. New York: -574


13. New Jersey: -474

14. Minnesota: -444
15. New Hampshire: -431

16. Delaware: -387
17. Colorado: -379
18. Wisconsin: -360

19. Michigan: -328
20. New Mexico: -327

21. Maine: -272

22. Iowa: -247

23. Nevada: -159
24. Pennsylvania: -157 (the NEW tipping point state!)

25. Virginia: -111

26. Ohio: -70

27. Arizona: -25


28. North Carolina: +43

29. Florida: +90

30. Utah: +112
31. Georgia: +120

32. Indiana: +179
33. Missouri: +189
34. Nebraska: +190

35. Montana: +217
36. Kansas: +221
37. Texas: +222
38. North Dakota: +245


39. Alaska: +306

40. South Carolina: +365
41. South Dakota: +373

42. Arkansas: +416


45. Oklahoma: +508
43. Kentucky: +509
44. Idaho: +516
46. Tennessee: +544


47. Mississippi: +622
48. Louisiana: +636



49. West Virginia: +761

50. Alabama: +831


51. Wyoming: +941

[eric82oslo]

Some major changes this month. In the 33rd month of Trump's presidency, we have no less than 8 - I repeat eight - states with their worst Trump approval ever: Oregon (-24), New Hampshire (-23), Iowa (-14), Nebraska (-2), Montana (-3), South Dakota (+1), Arkansas (+4) & Wyoming (+16!).

For the four early primary states, all the campaigning going on there lately seems to really be taking its rough toll on Trump's approval there! Even Nevada and South Carolina are very near their all time low Trump approvals this month.

However, even much more important than that, we finally have a new tipping point state, as PENNSYLVANIA replaces Nevada!

In addition, both Pennsylvania and Nevada are moved from being somewhat likely Democratic into the fairly likely category (from 40% to 50% confidence). Wisconsin is also moved from being 80% solidly Democratic and into he 90% solidly percentile.

Montana with its worst Trump approval ever, surpasses Kansas and is now the 34th most Democratic state. More impressive though, Oklahoma manages to leap ahead of no less than two states, both Kentucky and Idaho, making Oklahoma now the 43rd most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26

Just a note of caution here: Trump was at -20 nationwide on the day he was elected.

In case you were wondering why NYT had Clinton at a 90-98% chance of winning the 2016 election.

He was the outsider then, now he's the incumbent. It's not comparable.

[eric82oslo]

Sorry, haven't posted a new map for a few months now, but basically not much has changed over the past 4-6 months. Trump saw record low approval in state after state during the autumn, but has managed to bounce back in the past two months, with the exception of Nevada, where he got his worst approval rating ever in January 2020 at -15%.

Here are the top 10 tipping point states during the past 37 months:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Nevada
3. Virginia
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Maine
7. Arizona
8. New Mexico
9. Michigan
10. Wisconsin


And the top 10 tipping point states when only counting the month of January 2020:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Florida
3. Ohio
4. North Carolina
5. Arizona
6. Georgia
7. Virginia
8. Nebraska
9. Maine
10. Montana


The two rankings are surprisingly dissimilar, with the exception of Pennsylvania staying at the top in both, so maybe something really is changing in the race, or at least what relates to Trump's approval numbers in different states. Also notice that Ohio is in the top four in each ranking, contrary to popular belief/expert analysis. Both Virginia and Arizona in the top seven in both, while Maine is also in the top nine in both rankings. It is true that Trump has gotten significantly less popular in Florida during the past few months, actually during the past 6-12 months or so.

[eric82oslo]

After months of not posting any updates to this thread, despite some of the most dramatic changes to Trump's approval during his presidency - going from some of his worst ever during September to November to some of his best since at least his first 3-4 months in office, I've decided to finally do an important update. Not too much has changed in fact, but most of what was already evident 4-5 months ago, has just crystalized itself even more clearly now. There have been a few changes on the state level however. States like Nevada in particular, but even Florida, and perhaps even Georgia, have become more Democratic. On the flip side, Utah is transforming into a much more Trump state than before, while even a few northern states, in particular Minnesota I think, has let go of its worst anti Trump attitudes. During the past 5-10 months though, the most dramatic shifts have occurred in Nevada and Utah, both heading into completely different directions interestingly enough. Nevada used to be almost as pro Trump as Florida, today it is the exact opposite. Utah used to be almost as anti Trump as Pennsylvania almost, now it is much closer to states like Texas and Kansas. New York has moved up from being the 12th to the 10th most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26




Here's the list comprising January 2017 till January 2020:

1. D.C.: -2103


















2. Vermont: -1048
3. Hawaii: -1012

4. Massachusetts: -999


5. Maryland: -892
6. California: -875

7. Washington: -813


8. Rhode Island: -718

9. Connecticut: -680
10. New York: -671
11. Oregon: -669
12. Illinois: -660



13. New Jersey: -533

14. New Hampshire: -498
15. Minnesota: -488
16. Delaware: -453

17. Colorado: -440
18. Wisconsin: -411

19. Michigan: -382
20. New Mexico: -374

21. Maine: -312

22. Iowa: -291

23. Nevada: -207

24. Pennsylvania: -181 (the tipping point state!)

25. Virginia: -134

26. Ohio: -85

27. Arizona: -37


28. North Carolina: +38

29. Florida: +92

30. Georgia: +112
31. Utah: +121

32. Nebraska: +183
33. Indiana: +198

34. Missouri: +213
35. Montana: +222
36. Texas: +233
37. Kansas: +244

38. North Dakota: +267

39. Alaska: +313

40. South Dakota: +395
41. South Carolina: +396


42. Arkansas: +454

43. Oklahoma: +547

44. Kentucky: +562
45. Idaho: +591

46. Tennessee: +609

47. Louisiana: +684
48. Mississippi: +685



49. West Virginia: +841


50. Alabama: +919



51. Wyoming: +1057