Which State is Most Likely to "Flip" in 2016?

[eric82oslo]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

[eric82oslo]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

Here is the Arizona trend.

1996 R+5
2000 R+7
2004 R+8
2008 R+15 (McCain)
2012 R+12

So when we factor in McCain, we see a state that has been trending Republican since 1996. In what world could it be possible for it to flip before a state like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, even New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, and Minnesota are more likely. I'll even say Maine and Montana would flip before Arizona.

Because trends are not everything. Early polls are showing more or less a dead heat among Hillary and Republicans in Texas, and this is still only 2013 speaking. Arizona is much less partisan than Texas - or Kentucky, Louisiana and Arkansas - other states that are showing practically dead heats already - thus the likelihood is not small that Hillary is already leading in a state like Arizona, though no poll has been conducted in the state yet, strangely.

Kentucky, Louisiana and Arkansas, however, are likely to turn back onto Republican soil in either 2020 or 2024 (in the end they might not even vote for Hillary in 2016, it's way too early to tell for that of course), yet with Arizona, Texas and Georgia, the story will be a very different one. They are for sure the next California, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina in making. Just wait and see. You don't really have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.

North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Texas are all witnessing at least some degree of backlashes after too wild Republican policies in the states. This will likely have both short-term and possibly even long-term consequences as well. After all, the main reason why California changed so fast from being a toss-up state to becoming solidly Democratic was the strongly anti-immigrant policies of the local Republican party in the mid 1990s. Now Arizona, North Carolina and Florida is in the middle of that exact same path, Texas however has not shown that much hostility towards immigrants and latinos yet however, so their backlash might come somewhat later, perhaps.

[eric82oslo]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

That's very skeptical my friend.

By 2024 2084 Oklahoma will be going Democratic #REDY4HILERY

By 2084, there will be a multi-party system in the US. Just like in almost every other country.

Even the UK has a 3, beginning to become a 4 party system. Which in fact is even larger than that, as they also have the regional parties of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

I don't see it as entirely unlikely that something similar could in fact happen in the US in the near future. The Libertarian Party is already becoming a local treat to GOP in some places, including in Virginia where they're about to get 10% of the votes in the upcoming gubernatorial election. I could see it happening that within 5-10-15 years, the Libertarian Party could be almost as prominent as GOP in several conservative states, especially so in the West and the North (North-West). Something similar could possibly happen on the left side of politics. I could imagine a revival for the Green Party in say 10-15-20 years from now, where they would become a serious treat to local and national Democratic candidates in solidly Democratic states like California, New York, Vermont, Hawaii and so on.