Texas Trends

[eric82oslo]

We're in a realigning period for Democrats to win the presidency?

If it turns out, like the ones from 1860-1892 (Republican), 1896-1928 (Republican), 1932-1964 (Democratic), and 1968-2004 (Republican), to be seven of nine or ten cycles for prevailing Democrats … it's doubtful that Texas would never once carry for the more dominant of the two major parties. And part of that has to do with the fact the Lone Star State is the No. 2-ranked state in population. One that is not immune to shifts.

I agree. The main reason why Texas and Arizona haven't shown any sign that they can be competitive yet I believe is due to the lackluster voter turnout among minorities, and in particular latinos. It's bad in Texas, but the numbers are truely horrible in Arizona. A national Pew Research PDF with racial cross-tabs of voter turnout in all 50 states + D.C. realeased recently, put the latino turnout among adult citizens at shockingly 19%, the lowest single tournout of any racial sub-group in all 50 (51) states! Now, if they've been intimidated by the Republican establishment over the past few years, or what was the exact background for them not voting, I have no clue about honestly, but it should really be a worrisome fact for the national Democratic establishment. The Texas latino turnout for adult citizens was about 40% I believe, still way, way lower than the white turnout in that state.

[eric82oslo]

A long and interesting article on Texas' political future in the Texas Monthly called "The Life and Death (and Life?) of the Party": http://www.texasmonthly.com/story/life-and-death-and-life-party

[eric82oslo]

A long and interesting article on Texas' political future in the Texas Monthly called "The Life and Death (and Life?) of the Party": http://www.texasmonthly.com/story/life-and-death-and-life-party

Very interesting, especially the parts about voter registration and the electorate:

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Hard to see how Democrats win anytime soon with numbers like that considering Texas whites are about 71-74% Republican. Texas is 44.5% non-Hispanic white in 2012 yet the electorate is about 20 points above that mainly because of proportionally lower voter registration rates among minorities. Too bad that online voter registration bill in the state failed earlier this year. Or even further: imagine Texas with same-day registration or automatic voter registration...

But the expected 65% white electorate is for the midterm only, when the already very low Hispanic and youth votes drop even far lower. They said that only 1 in 4 eligible latino voter in Texas voted in the 2010 midterms, while almost half (or 44%) of white eligible voters did the same.

In 2012, only 59% of the electorate was white. My prediction is that the 2016 electorate will be no more than 55% or 56% white, even lower than that if Hillary generates massive enthusiasm among latinos (as she's likely to do) and Battleground Texas succeeds with their massive voter registration (and voter education) efforts the next 4 years.

Despite the clear demographic advantages in the state, Democrats still have a money problem. While Battleground Texas reported having raised slightly more than 1 million $ during the first quarter, the Republican counteroperation announced that they would pour in almost 8 times that money. In any case, Battleground Texas is more than anything about getting voters actually aware of and interested in their civic rights, and you don't necessarily need a whole lot of money or expensive advertisement campaigns to achieve that goal. Still it's an uphill battle for now. At the very least until 2016.