Slowing Trend in North Carolina

[barfbag]

2000 Bush      56-43   +14
2004 Bush      56-44   +9
2008 Obama   50-49   +6
2012 Romney 50-49   +5

Even though North Carolina has come a long way to the center we can see the trend slowing down. Will it continue to slowly trend to the left or stay the same? You can send us numbers on demographics all you want, but when it comes to elections the only numbers that matter are real votes. I've laid out the votes already so let's discuss trends and not demographics and races.

[barfbag]

Even though North Carolina has come a long way to the center we can see the trend slowing down. Will it continue to slowly trend to the left or stay the same? You can send us numbers on demographics all you want, but when it comes to elections the only numbers that matter are real votes. I've laid out the votes already so let's discuss trends and not demographics and races.

Discussion's over, then - unless I'm allowed to conjecture from my ass?

Go ahead and send data, but you would have to make the argument that the trend would speed back up.

[barfbag]

Classic barfbag having weak arguments and thus regulating what pieces of evidence may be entered into the conversation.

I happen to not be the only one whose made a thread on this topic. Why don't you tell us what you think of North Carolina's trend?

[barfbag]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

This is true at the state level. A valid indicator for how the state will trend is to compare Obama's approval rating in the state to the rest of the country. I haven't seen any signs it's center-left. When we look at the last two elections, Obama beat McCain by less than a point, but won the election by just under 7.5. We see it being roughly 7 points to the right. At the top I just rounded to the nearest point which came out to 6 to the right. Last year, Obama won by 4 nationally, but lost North Carolina by a statistical point, but nearly two points which would put the tar-heel state at about 6 points again or 5 points statistically.

[barfbag]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

This is true at the state level. A valid indicator for how the state will trend is to compare Obama's approval rating in the state to the rest of the country. I haven't seen any signs it's center-left. When we look at the last two elections, Obama beat McCain by less than a point, but won the election by just under 7.5. We see it being roughly 7 points to the right. At the top I just rounded to the nearest point which came out to 6 to the right. Last year, Obama won by 4 nationally, but lost North Carolina by a statistical point, but nearly two points which would put the tar-heel state at about 6 points again or 5 points statistically.

I'm thinking that if these approval ratings stay the same or get worse going into 2016, we could see reverse coattails in the presidential race.  Like in 1980 in Arkansas where Frank White pull Reagan over the hump in the state.  Reagan only won arkansas by one point while frank won by three.  This is exactly what will happen in 2016 North Carolina.

You know I keep forgetting North Carolina has their elections in presidential years. This means the state's internal affairs has more of a pull on the presidential election than other states. Damn!

[barfbag]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

It looks that way, but their trend has clearly slowed down even with a phenomenal candidate for the state's demographics. There was basically no trend from 2008 to 2012. However, when Bush was in office it went from R +14 in 200 to R +6 in 2008.

[barfbag]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

[barfbag]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

You're saying we were in a recession last year which hurt Obama in Virginia and North Carolina?

[barfbag]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

What about the "recession" made NC and VA slow down their trends, obviously there were huge trends to the left in 2008, and then mild trends in 2012. There is something special with these states and Obama, so be it the black turnout increase or increasing urban population going in extra hard for him, but he definitely had an appeal that Kerry or Gore didn't have.

It's their excuses again.

PA- Oh it's fine. Obama just underperformed with whites. (playing the race card)
GA- Oh it's just a few elections away every single time. (only a measly 0.7% trend)
NC- Oh it's only 8 years behind Virginia. (the trend has actually slowed down to 1 freaking point)
VA- Oh it's D.C.'s population moving there. (the GOP just doesn't know how to campaign there yet)
TX- Oh the Latino vote will keep growing. (Latinos tend to be more conservative in TX.)

So you see Democrats are full of excuses to help them forget about the general rule of 8 year alternations.

[barfbag]

Even though North Carolina has come a long way to the center we can see the trend slowing down. Will it continue to slowly trend to the left or stay the same? You can send us numbers on demographics all you want, but when it comes to elections the only numbers that matter are real votes. I've laid out the votes already so let's discuss trends and not demographics and races.

Discussion's over, then - unless I'm allowed to conjecture from my ass?

Go ahead and send data, but you would have to make the argument that the trend would speed back up.

Just to clarify: I'm not necessarily arguing that your premise is invalid, but to forego many other types of trends for one type of trend that has plenty of anomalies and exceptions in regards to individual states' long-term political trajectory is not wise. I hope to have some time later this evening to explore this further.

I'm not saying it can't speed back up either, but usually trends don't work that way. We could see another trend in the future, but it doesn't mean there would be any correlation to what's happened in this century so far. I look forward to your numbers and hope I didn't sound mean. Demographics could play a big part in another trend, but then we'd be trying to predict the future without using data we already have.

[barfbag]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

So the state's recession is slowing down growth to the point it hurt Obama? Or the recession is still going on and it hurt Obama? I've never said Obama did well there because he's black. Now Bill Clinton did say such a thing when Obama won South Carolina. His remarks were "Jesse Jackson won there" regarding Obama's victory in the 2008 primaries. It helped him sure, but he would've won Virginia both times.

[barfbag]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

So the state's recession is slowing down growth to the point it hurt Obama? Or the recession is still going on and it hurt Obama? I've never said Obama did well there because he's black. Now Bill Clinton did say such a thing when Obama won South Carolina. His remarks were "Jesse Jackson won there" regarding Obama's victory in the 2008 primaries. It helped him sure, but he would've won Virginia both times.

Actually, the recession ended a while ago.

You just said the recession is causing fewer job openings though. I agree the recession is over.

[barfbag]

My concern with the crazy GOP legislature here, is would Northerners be deterred from moving here because of that.

So if we keep it up the state will stay center-right?

[barfbag]

My concern with the crazy GOP legislature here, is would Northerners be deterred from moving here because of that.

So if we keep it up the state will stay center-right?

Though swing voters already here will be more Dem with this legislature. It may cancel each other out.

Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

[barfbag]

Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

Actually, that is not a problem at all.

Do you think Obama helped the state in 2008 or the state helped Obama there?

[barfbag]

Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

Actually, that is not a problem at all.

Do you think Obama helped the state in 2008 or the state helped Obama there?

Neither. Easley was popular until he was hit by a number of scandals.

Wait when you said not a problem did you mean because it benefited Democrats? LOL

[barfbag]

Wait when you said not a problem did you mean because it benefited Democrats? LOL

It cut both ways. Perdue's unpopularity dragged Obama down in 2012.

Part of what I was getting at too is that Republicans in North Carolina seem disgruntled or almost as if they're doing all they can to turn the state back and the legislature isn't the place to do such a thing. Their ideology is going to rub people the wrong way. What they need to do is talk about their conservatism in ways people can relate to as Bush brilliantly did. At the rate they're going, it could flip in 2016. For now I'll put the state on the right side of the spectrum still. On a brighter note, the trend slowed down to one point in 2012 suggesting that the Democratic trend has nearly stopped. We'll see if it could pick up again.

[barfbag]

Part of what I was getting at too is that Republicans in North Carolina seem disgruntled or almost as if they're doing all they can to turn the state back and the legislature isn't the place to do such a thing. Their ideology is going to rub people the wrong way. What they need to do is talk about their conservatism in ways people can relate to as Bush brilliantly did. At the rate they're going, it could flip in 2016. For now I'll put the state on the right side of the spectrum still. On a brighter note, the trend slowed down to one point in 2012 suggesting that the Democratic trend has nearly stopped. We'll see if it could pick up again.

North Carolina is going to keep moving to the left because the urban areas are growing. There’s no denying that.

Had the Republicans in the general assembly governed from the center or center-right and McCrory been a popular governor, the Democratic takeover would have been delayed. They could have kept North Carolina Republican for many more cycles, but now, it’s going to accelerate because of what they are doing.

The opposite scenario happens in Arkansas.  Arkansas would have flipped Republican a long time ago, but a series of popular Democratic politicians (Bill Clinton, David Pryor, Dale Bumpers) helped delay the takeover.

So you think the trend will speed back up again and no longer continue to slow down? I agree with what you say about Arkansas. Carter was able to win there because of his southern base and Clinton won there as his home state. It would've been very interesting to see how Arkansas would've voted in the 90's if not for Clinton.

[barfbag]

The Tar Heel State will be R+3 in 2016.

That sounds about right.

[barfbag]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

Whether that affects federal results much, though, is quite another matter.

It should more than in other states. The same theory could be applied to Washington, Indiana, Missouri, and I think there's a few other states who hold their governor elections in presidential years. These aren't states I'm the most familiar with, but it seems like North Carolina influences presidential elections in their state.

[barfbag]

Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly.  Both of which are in the toilet.  If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.

Whether that affects federal results much, though, is quite another matter.

It should more than in other states. The same theory could be applied to Washington, Indiana, Missouri, and I think there's a few other states who hold their governor elections in presidential years. These aren't states I'm the most familiar with, but it seems like North Carolina influences presidential elections in their state.

We elected a GOP president and a Democratic Governor in 1968, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004.

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

[barfbag]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

Oh man maybe I'll move there and turn them into RINO's.

[barfbag]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

Oh man maybe I'll move there and turn them into RINO's.

You can do that, but the Jessecrats are a diminishing part of the electorate, hence why governing from the far-right is a shortsighted decision.

My suggestion is for you to move to South Carolina. You would fit in there. Maybe you can help them replace Lindsey Graham with a very conservative senator.

But if we're already going to win South Carolina, then it would help our party more if I moved to North Carolina. They seem to be dwindling there and need more help. I meant if I moved to North Carolina, then I could help the Republicans moderate more since I'm pretty moderate myself.

[barfbag]

Actually, if you want to help your party, it makes more sense for you to stay in Virginia.

If Hillary is leading in North Carolina, then she very likely already have the election in the bag.
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She'll probably win VA before she wins NC though. After 8 years of a Democrat president though, she may not win either.

[barfbag]

What I am saying is that there no possible way Hillary could win North Carolina, but lose the election.

certainly agree