Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there?

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It just hasn't worked out. It would've been red in the 80's if not for Mondale and the farming crisis so there's three flukes right there. Bush came within a point or two each time. Minnesota is a purplish blue state that leans Democratic and probably will in upcoming elections.

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I think faming unions have a lot to do with Democratic success there. It's a big farming state. Bordering Canada doesn't help Republicans either.

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Why did the GOP have such a long winning streak with US Senate seats in MN in the '80s and '90s even while not really seeming to do that well in other races? They even managed to get Rod Grams elected for one term.

Democratic turnout is never good for midterm elections anymore. Minnesota would've been light red in the 80's if not for Mondale and the farming crisis. As for the 90's, midterm turnout hasn't been good for Democrats in postmodern history.

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Coleman and Pawlenty were exceptions. GOP who wanted no parts of ANWR. It was close because of rural/urban divide like OR and Iowa. DFL are now the office holders in Democratic Minneaota.

They're both very moderate Republicans too.

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What do you all think is the Democrats' equivalent of Minnesota? I suppose the strongest contender is North Dakota, although a case could have been made for Virginia pre-2008.

Missouri

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Another comparison on the other side could be Montana, but I don't know. When Republicans win the general election, they usually win Montana by at least 16.

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Well "The Twin Cities" aren't friendly voting wise to Republican Presidential Candidates.

Two party vote 2012

Minneapolis- Obama 83% - Romney 17%
St Paul- Obama 78% - Romney 22%

That has to rank right up there with the most Democratic white majority cities in the nation.

This is another good point. The farmer's labor ideals have been big in Minnesota ever since the early 20th century. Minnesota isn't the only state we're having trouble in though. I'd say the same about Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania, maybe Maine, and Wisconsin and New Hampshire are looking more that way.

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Well "The Twin Cities" aren't friendly voting wise to Republican Presidential Candidates.

Two party vote 2012

Minneapolis- Obama 83% - Romney 17%
St Paul- Obama 78% - Romney 22%

That has to rank right up there with the most Democratic white majority cities in the nation.

This is another good point. The farmer's labor ideals have been big in Minnesota ever since the early 20th century. Minnesota isn't the only state we're having trouble in though. I'd say the same about Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania, maybe Maine, and Wisconsin and New Hampshire are looking more that way.

MI-The GOP used to win there before 1992 in Presidential Elections. Bush W. almost won PA in 2000 and 2004. NH is a swing state now and probably will always be that way. Maine- a GOP Presidential Candidate hasn't carried the state since 1988 although Bush W. did do good there I think both times. Wisconsin was close 2000 and 2004(especially-500 votes) but an R Presidential Candidate hasn't carried the state since 1984.

I was making comparisons between Minnesota and its purplish blue counterparts.

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I live in Duluth and I definitely concur with Sol. Unions are very strong in Minnesota, and the GOP has a difficulty with appeasing unions (for good reasons, in my opinion ). You'd need to be a pretty populist conservative to win here, or in this select area at least.

This gives me a good idea for a thread. Bush would've won Minnesota both times if he was more pro-union and a little less free trade.

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I live in Duluth and I definitely concur with Sol. Unions are very strong in Minnesota, and the GOP has a difficulty with appeasing unions (for good reasons, in my opinion ). You'd need to be a pretty populist conservative to win here, or in this select area at least.

This gives me a good idea for a thread. Bush would've won Minnesota both times if he was more pro-union and a little less free trade.

That's a big if and in no way comparable to the statement I made. I fail to see the point of your post.

Romney would've won DC if he was a liberal Democrat.

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I live in Duluth and I definitely concur with Sol. Unions are very strong in Minnesota, and the GOP has a difficulty with appeasing unions (for good reasons, in my opinion ). You'd need to be a pretty populist conservative to win here, or in this select area at least.

This gives me a good idea for a thread. Bush would've won Minnesota both times if he was more pro-union and a little less free trade.

Romney would've won DC if he was a liberal Democrat.

McCain/Palin would have won all 538 EVs if John McCain was actually Ronald Reagan, Sarah Palin was actually Bill Clinton, Barack Obama was actually Hitler, and Joe Biden was actually Stalin.

Utah would be a Safe Democratic state if all the white socially conservative Mormons were actually liberal whites, blacks, and Hispanics from Manhattan.

A Republican would be elected President of the United States in 2016 if he had Ted Cruz's appearance, life story, and biography and Chris Christie's views, record/experience, and style.

Al Gore would be President of the United States if Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris didn't prevent 54,000 Florida citizens, 54% of whom were African American, from voting because their names sounded similar to those of about 2,000 felons, if the butterfly ballot was not used in heavily Democratic precincts where the majority of voters were blind old Jews, and if faulty voting machines did not report an unusually high number of over votes in heavily Democratic poor inner city precincts.

Again I fail to see the point of your post because it in no way relates to what I proposed. If only it were the same thing. The butterfly ballot was hysterical.

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I live in Duluth and I definitely concur with Sol. Unions are very strong in Minnesota, and the GOP has a difficulty with appeasing unions (for good reasons, in my opinion ). You'd need to be a pretty populist conservative to win here, or in this select area at least.

This gives me a good idea for a thread. Bush would've won Minnesota both times if he was more pro-union and a little less free trade.

Romney would've won DC if he was a liberal Democrat.

McCain/Palin would have won all 538 EVs if John McCain was actually Ronald Reagan, Sarah Palin was actually Bill Clinton, Barack Obama was actually Hitler, and Joe Biden was actually Stalin.

Utah would be a Safe Democratic state if all the white socially conservative Mormons were actually liberal whites, blacks, and Hispanics from Manhattan.

A Republican would be elected President of the United States in 2016 if he had Ted Cruz's appearance, life story, and biography and Chris Christie's views, record/experience, and style.

Al Gore would be President of the United States if Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris didn't prevent 54,000 Florida citizens, 54% of whom were African American, from voting because their names sounded similar to those of about 2,000 felons, if the butterfly ballot was not used in heavily Democratic precincts where the majority of voters were blind old Jews, and if faulty voting machines did not report an unusually high number of over votes in heavily Democratic poor inner city precincts.

Again I fail to see the point of your post because it in no way relates to what I proposed. If only it were the same thing. The butterfly ballot was hysterical.

I'm just exposing both the uselessness and the unlikeliness of the particular hypothetical you made.

It would be useless if Bush was more pro-union and won Minnesota?

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I live in Duluth and I definitely concur with Sol. Unions are very strong in Minnesota, and the GOP has a difficulty with appeasing unions (for good reasons, in my opinion ). You'd need to be a pretty populist conservative to win here, or in this select area at least.

This gives me a good idea for a thread. Bush would've won Minnesota both times if he was more pro-union and a little less free trade.

Romney would've won DC if he was a liberal Democrat.

McCain/Palin would have won all 538 EVs if John McCain was actually Ronald Reagan, Sarah Palin was actually Bill Clinton, Barack Obama was actually Hitler, and Joe Biden was actually Stalin.

Utah would be a Safe Democratic state if all the white socially conservative Mormons were actually liberal whites, blacks, and Hispanics from Manhattan.

A Republican would be elected President of the United States in 2016 if he had Ted Cruz's appearance, life story, and biography and Chris Christie's views, record/experience, and style.

Al Gore would be President of the United States if Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris didn't prevent 54,000 Florida citizens, 54% of whom were African American, from voting because their names sounded similar to those of about 2,000 felons, if the butterfly ballot was not used in heavily Democratic precincts where the majority of voters were blind old Jews, and if faulty voting machines did not report an unusually high number of over votes in heavily Democratic poor inner city precincts.

Again I fail to see the point of your post because it in no way relates to what I proposed. If only it were the same thing. The butterfly ballot was hysterical.

I'm just exposing both the uselessness and the unlikeliness of the particular hypothetical you made.

It would be useless if Bush was more pro-union and won Minnesota?

No, that's the "unlikeliness" part that I referenced. The "uselessness" part came from the fact that your hypothetical is probably wrong (if he wasn't winning WI, PA, and even IA in 2000, no way he was winning MN), but also the fact that you were making a tiny, inconsequential what-if about an election 13 years ago.

He may have very well won those states too in that case.

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Minnesota drives me crazy. I actually had it going for Romney along with Michigan, Florida, and Colorado.

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Minnesota drives me crazy. I actually had it going for Romney along with Michigan, Florida, and Colorado.

Why in the world did you think there was a more-likely-than-not chance of Minnesota going for Romney? I get that it wasn't impossible, but when you actually had to call each state, you genuinely believed Minnesota would go Romney? I got every state right except Florida.

The week before the election should be spent focusing on Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and possibly Pennsylvania. However, Democrats sent Bill Clinton their top rock star to a state they haven't lost since 1972 as if they were worried. Actually I had the state at 50/50. The states I was certain for Romney were MO, IN, NH, CO, and actually my upset was MI. I had FL at 49-49, NC at 50-50, and MN at 50-50.

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Minnesota drives me crazy. I actually had it going for Romney along with Michigan, Florida, and Colorado.

Why in the world did you think there was a more-likely-than-not chance of Minnesota going for Romney? I get that it wasn't impossible, but when you actually had to call each state, you genuinely believed Minnesota would go Romney? I got every state right except Florida.

The week before the election should be spent focusing on Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and possibly Pennsylvania. However, Democrats sent Bill Clinton their top rock star to a state they haven't lost since 1972 as if they were worried. Actually I had the state at 50/50. The states I was certain for Romney were MO, IN, NH, CO, and actually my upset was MI. I had FL at 49-49, NC at 50-50, and MN at 50-50.

I guess you just suck at predictions then, probably because you involve too much wishful thinking.

I do worse every time. In 2004 I predicted every state correctly and a 51-49 Bush victory.

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Minnesota drives me crazy. I actually had it going for Romney along with Michigan, Florida, and Colorado.

Why in the world did you think there was a more-likely-than-not chance of Minnesota going for Romney? I get that it wasn't impossible, but when you actually had to call each state, you genuinely believed Minnesota would go Romney? I got every state right except Florida.

The week before the election should be spent focusing on Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and possibly Pennsylvania. However, Democrats sent Bill Clinton their top rock star to a state they haven't lost since 1972 as if they were worried. Actually I had the state at 50/50. The states I was certain for Romney were MO, IN, NH, CO, and actually my upset was MI. I had FL at 49-49, NC at 50-50, and MN at 50-50.

I guess you just suck at predictions then, probably because you involve too much wishful thinking.

I do worse every time. In 2004 I predicted every state correctly and a 51-49 Bush victory.

What about Senate races? I'm the opposite as you; your predictions are influenced by wishful thinking whereas I slightly underestimate my party. I was 32/33 in 2012, incorrectly predicting that the Republican would win in North Dakota. And I predicted a 3-point Obama victory rather than a 4-point one, and I was wrong about Florida.

I underestimated my party in 2008 actually and slightly in 2004. I'm checking my files for senate predictions.

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Minnesota drives me crazy. I actually had it going for Romney along with Michigan, Florida, and Colorado.

Why in the world did you think there was a more-likely-than-not chance of Minnesota going for Romney? I get that it wasn't impossible, but when you actually had to call each state, you genuinely believed Minnesota would go Romney? I got every state right except Florida.

The week before the election should be spent focusing on Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and possibly Pennsylvania. However, Democrats sent Bill Clinton their top rock star to a state they haven't lost since 1972 as if they were worried. Actually I had the state at 50/50. The states I was certain for Romney were MO, IN, NH, CO, and actually my upset was MI. I had FL at 49-49, NC at 50-50, and MN at 50-50.

I guess you just suck at predictions then, probably because you involve too much wishful thinking.

I do worse every time. In 2004 I predicted every state correctly and a 51-49 Bush victory.

What about Senate races? I'm the opposite as you; your predictions are influenced by wishful thinking whereas I slightly underestimate my party. I was 32/33 in 2012, incorrectly predicting that the Republican would win in North Dakota. And I predicted a 3-point Obama victory rather than a 4-point one, and I was wrong about Florida.

I'm going to make a new thread for 2012 senate races.