The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven has not made a decision about resigning or calling new elections

He has one week to choose

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Liberals have just announced that they will not vote out the government. However, the sum of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Sweden Democrats and Left Party is 182, seven more votes than necessary to pass a vote of no confidence.

Liberals now say that if there is a presidential round or new elections, they will work for a dark blue government.

Such an alliance would have 174 seats to a Red-Green+Centre's 175, bringing it down to the wire

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

May I say that the system where Sweden always has 4 year fixed elections is quite a bit dumb? Why should a new election be called in 2022 no matter what? Especially for national elections. The only advantage I can see is maybe stability but I'd rather take the snap elections, sometimes they are the best option.

Has any party ever proposed removing that rule?

I can't answer that question unfortunately, but my understanding is having these fixed terms is a way of making snap elections unattractive outside of extreme cases. Since most governments in Sweden have been minority governments (esp. SocDem governments), the chances of a snap election are always high if there are no majority coalitions, so i guess the combination of minority governments that are rarely interrupted by snap elections fits into the whole consensus culture thing alomg with being beneficial to the SAP where they used to be the sole big party and could pick off smaller parties for support on a case-by-case basis. However that system is probably less beneficial as the SAP no longer consistently gets above 40% and also the emergence of bloc politics.

Then again, i could be talking out of my ass here.

Also, i think it's about aligning local/regional elections with national elections consistently to make sure turnout it high

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Looks like the Centre Party is backing down on the housing reforms.

However, the Liberals are now switching sides and want to work for a conservative government, and Centre still refuses to negotiate with the Left, so this crisis still isn't over yet

The SAP-Greens now need to get a new agreement that pleases both Centre and the Left simultaneously in order to get a new government approved. Of course, Centre still refuses to negotiate with the Left directly, so we again have the possibility that the SAP will play the role of middle man negotiator, which doesn't have much chance of success seeing as such time-consuming tactics will definitely last more than the one week available

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Rumors abound that the senior leadership of the SAP is leaning towards calling an extra election on Monday as their best bet.

While the Red-Greens+Centre in theory have a 175 to 174 majority, there is one rogue Left MP and one rogue Centre MP who are being cryptic about their support for a return of Löfven. There is also one Liberal MP who seems to more or less have quit her job so the situation is very risky for everyone involved if Sweden were to go to Presidential rounds.

SAP leadership supposedly thinks they can campaign on managing the COVID crisis well, the booming economy, successfully pumping the breaks on centre-right proposals while also achieving some of their own goals, etc. while reminding voters that SD could get into power while the Liberals could get the boot. Also, they could put the blame of a snap election during a crisis on the other parties.

Of course, these are unconfirmed rumors. Anecdotally, following up on social media with my Solna SAP friends, they seem to be in a fighting mood about an extra election.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Put it in your daily planners for tomorrow; Löfven has until midnight tomorrow to announce whether he will take Sweden to an extra election or Presidential rounds.

Given the dead silence from the SAP after their national leadership met with the regional leaders on Saturday afternoon and also total media blackout from the party (not even Aftonbladet can squeeze any juicy leaks out), I am guessing tomorrow he will announce a snap election.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven calls for presidential rounds. The speaker now has four chances to form a new government before elections are mandatory



(Honestly kind of sad, i wanted a new election. 175 - 174 is not a stable majority)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Speaker of the Riksdag will announce who will be the first to be tasked with forming a new government at 16.15 this afternoon

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Speaker of the Riksdag will announce who will be the first to be tasked with forming a new government at 16.15 this afternoon

Ulf Kristersson of the Moderates is given first go. There is no time limit but the time frame is "several weeks".

In a major setback for him, the Centre MP Helena Lindahl, who went rogue in 2019 and voted against Löfven and could have held the balance of power in a 175 - 174 situation, has announced that she will vote the party line in the current situation. This comes despite saying that Stefan Löfven is "not her Prime Minister" and made otherwise very harsh comments about him as PM. So as long as the other Left Party rebel also votes the party line and no one else goes rogue, then the Red-Greens and Centre have 175 together against a conservative coalition of 174.

There is also the risk that someone from a party does not show, which would make the difference in such a vote. Right now there is one Liberal MP who has been a no-show and two SAP MPs who have a sketchy attendance record over the past few months. During the vote of no confidence in Stefan Löfven last week, a total of 8 MPs were absent, six of which were from the SAP, one from Centre, and one from the Greens.

One member of the SAP has been excluded for inappropriate behavior and another suspended pending a traffic investigation (on the flip side, there is thought that Ebba Busch could be prosecuted for libel at any moment, but im not sure how that would affect her as leader of KD).

Of course, because Sweden has negative parliamentarianism, this means that if even ONE member from the Red-Greens+Centre is absent, a motion for a Kristersson government would have a tie of 174 to 174, which would mean the motion would pass, as it would not have a majority of 175 against.

But then again, that government would also be very fragile, because it could fall if everyone on the other side just showed up to a vote against.

The Speaker of the Riksdag, Andreas Norlen (M), aims to hold a vote on a new head of government next week, however there is no guarantee of this as it is just a general aim. He also hopes to avoid another drawn-out process like the four months this took last time.

Strap in.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Kristersson reportedly aims to form either an M+KD or M+KD+L government with external support from SD.

SD is very unlikely to join the government, but they appear to be happy to provide external support so long as their agenda is achieved. SD is also likely to accept quite a lot of watering down of their agenda as part of their strategy of becoming mainstream and appearing as a reliable and trustworthy partner.

M has made overtures to Centre but Centre has turned them down so long as M keeps courting SD.


In the event a government is formed, Kristersson has said that his priorities would be improvements in elder care, crime, and deporting illegal immigrants. Admittedly he has not said much, but i assume COVID will also continue to be a major theme.

He aims to report to the President of the Riksdag on Friday with a possible vote on Monday if both feel there is not a majority against.

He may request an extension if he feels progress is being made.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Without Centre in the mix, what is Kristersson hoping for? SAP no-shows? Or are they still courting C?

Honestly no idea.

I guess maybe a defector from C? This defector would of course likely end their political career, and i would think risk getting expelled outright from the party. Alternatively this person could defect outright from the party entirely, unsure of how this works in the Riksdag.

Alternatively if there are SAP absentees, they could form a government, avoid controversial issues for one year and just focus on COVID and dare the opposition to restart the government crisis by voting the government down, which could damage the opposition, and hope to get a mandate in 2022.

But yeah, otherwise not sure what the game plan is here

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Kristersson already gave up, after just one day

Yesterday the Moderates attempted to bribe Centre or at least get a defector to abstain by announcing a major investment package for rural areas, but Centre immediately smacked it down. A spokesman said that Centre's ideal constellation would be to reassemble the Alliance with the support of the Green Party to gain a centre-right majority not reliant on SD or S+V

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven up next, but now the rogue Left Party MP is considering voting "no", which would cause a 175 - 174 majority against.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven's deadline is today. He must do one of the following:

1. Ask for more negotiation time
2. Announce a new government
3. Give up

Centre today said they would be fine with voting to keep Löfven on as PM, but are still being coy about the budget for 2022. This is more or less the same thing that the Left Party said, of course the issue is that Centre refuses to negotiate the Left. Great fun!

Several Liberal members have said they do not intend to vote against Löfven as PM, in response to which party leader Nyamko Sabuni said she expects all MPs to follow the party line. However, not sure what the penalties are?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So, with L having at least announced to switch back to M+KD, can they expect to be kept alive by some Moderate voters or rather not?

Tactical voting for a party polling at 1.5 to 2 percentage points below the threshold seems pointless, it's more likely that some L voters will vote M to avoid wasting their vote.

Yeah, if they were closer to 4% then they probably would cross over, but below 3% is the valley of death for a party in Sweden and makes total collapse more likely

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SAP party board unanimously voted to open negotiations with the Centre Party, and Löfven has informed the Speaker that he intends to accept nomination as the PM candidate for an SAP+Green government.

Of course, the Left Party must still give its blessing to whatever agreement they reach, which is not guaranteed.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Kristersson already gave up, after just one day

Yesterday the Moderates attempted to bribe Centre or at least get a defector to abstain by announcing a major investment package for rural areas, but Centre immediately smacked it down. A spokesman said that Centre's ideal constellation would be to reassemble the Alliance with the support of the Green Party to gain a centre-right majority not reliant on SD or S+V

Even if we were to assume that the Green Party is willing to commit suicide by doing that; how exactly would that work given that S+SD+V have a "blocking majority" between the three of them? (and therefore any hypothetical government must include at least an abstention from one of them)

Ignored you, sorry, but in such a constellation, the hope would likely be that the SAP would vote to abstain on such a minority government (thus allowing it to pass), like they tolerated a minority Alliance government from 2010 to 2014 and the Alliance tolerated a Red-Green minority government from 2014 to 2018.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven continues as Prime Minister. What an anticlimax.

That was faster than i expected. I guess there is still drama awaiting for the budget.

Vote was 116 in favor (all of SAP + Greens), 60 abstentions (Centre + Left + one rogue Liberal), 173 against (M, L, SD, KD)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Stefan Löfven will be stepping down as party leader and Prime Minister at the Social Democratic party congress in November.

Bring on all the speculations about who his successor will be. My money's on Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson.

What are the reasons for this sudden exit?

He's in a weak spot given the summer crisis, and the SAP's poll numbers have sagged hard recently, so he wants to give the party a new leader who could give the party new life ahead of next year's elections.

He's also probably just tired of the job, having been party leader since 2012, PM since 2014, and his tenure has been marked by almost constant crisis and instability.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Elections for the Church of Sweden ended yesterday, here are the results:

Turnout: 17.5%, decrease of 1.6% compared to 2017
251 seats total


SAP: 27.6% // 70 seats (-2.7%, -6)
Posk (non-partisan): 19.5% // 31 seats (+2.4%, +5)
Centre: 11.1% // 31 seats (-2.6%, -3)
Civic Alternative: 8% // 19 seats (-0.6%, -3)
SD: 7.8% // 19 seats (-1.5%, -5 seats)
Left: 7.4% // 18 seats (+4%, +9 seats)
Open Church: 5.4% // 13 seats (+1%, +2)
Bold Church: 3.5% // 8 seats (-0.5%, -2)
Greens: 3.3% // 8 seats (+0.9%, +2)
Christian Democrats: 2.8% // 7 seats (-0.2%, n/c)
Free Liberals: 1.6% // 4 seats (-1.4%, -3)
Alternative for Sweden: 1.2% // 3 seats (new)
Heaven and Earth: 0.6% // 1 seat (new)

Pundits are saying turnout was surprisingly high. 5 million people were eligible to vote. You must be a memebr of the Church of Sweden and 16 years old to vote.

AfS apparently invested heavily in this election but failed miserably. There is no threshold, so even small groups cam get seats. Disappointing results for SD and Centre. SAP middling, probably best seen as a defensive victory since they mobilized their voters well enough. Big victory for the Left Party, however.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Stefan Löfven has submitted his resignation as Prime Minister



Centre has announced they will support Andersson, Left hasn't said anything yet but it's likely to happen. No date has been set for her election yet.

Of course, the next budget is due in December, so an Andersson government could easily collapse within a month

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Magdalena Andersson has until Tuesday 10:00 AM to secure parliamentary support for becoming prime minister

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Magdalena Andersson will ask for more time to try forming a new government that will sit for only 10 months because V wants an all-inclusive agreement

Andersson will also try to get support for her budget already now instead of forming government and then maybe have to resign again at the end of the month


M, KD and SD have just presented their alternative budget. L will not support this budget.

So this means the budget vote will probably look like this:

Government budget -> 116 votes (with V its 144 votes, with C its 174 votes and with the far-left independent its 175)

M/KD/SD-budget: 154

L-budget: 20

The budget with the most votes wins

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Wednesday the 24th could be a Super Wednesday, as the budget vote is scheduled to be held that afternoon but a PM vote may be held in the morning (yet unconfirmed).

This is probably a way for SAP to pressure the Left and Centre together, as it would be strange to vote for Andersson in the morning and then vote to defeat her government in the afternoon.

This is a pretty risky move, because V and/or C could carry out their threats to vote down Andersson and/or the budget.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Swedish people are crying out for MAGDA