If Jimmy Carter was re-elected

[Nym90]

Definitely not. Its downfall would've come at about the same time as it did in real life, possibly plus or minus a year or two.

[Nym90]

Another interesting what-if about Carter getting reelected is would he still have been shot the way Reagan was? Probably, since Hinckley shot the President to impress Jodie Foster. He had nothing personally against Reagan in particular, so presumably he would've shot Carter as well if he had still been in office. That might have boosted Carter's approval ratings the same way it did Reagan's.

[Nym90]

Carter reelected?  Man, that is hard to fathom.

The final preelection Gallup poll only had Reagan up by 3 points, and Carter was ahead in Gallup polling earlier in October.

Now if you are saying it's hard to fathom because of your personal opinion of Carter, that's another thing entirely. Just pointing out that while the actual result was a bit of a landslide, the election was quite close right up until the very end when there was a massive late surge for Reagan.