When will Santorum be ahead in the polls?

[Nym90]

He won't, though of course I'm not predicting a Santorum victory.

[Nym90]

Let's just say he wins, BRTD. Do you think you'll be able to fit your foot in your big mouth? I really warn you not to get too cocky about these races.

Santorum certainly could win, but given the national tide, he is really swimming upstream. Stranger things have happened, though, but I think he really needs Bush to at least get into the 40's in his approval ratings to have a good shot.

[Nym90]

I agree that Phil would have a lot more bragging rights if he turns out to be right than those who are predicting Santorum to lose would have if he does indeed lose, since almost everyone is saying Santorum will lose. It takes guts to be the guy who says something different than what everyone else is saying, so there certainly would be far more gloating rights in turning out to be right with an unpopular position.

However, the person who defies conventional wisdom in their predictions is also far more likely to be wrong, so it all balances out.