2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[ElectionsGuy]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

[ElectionsGuy]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

If that’s the case, De La Cruz is pretty much a lock to win in November and Garcia may win even if Cuellar is the D nominee and is clearly favored if it’s Cisneros. I wouldn’t even count out Flores upsetting Gonzalez.

Notably, here's the turnout for TX-15 (which was redistricted to be slightly more Republican, keep in mind, but still)

2020: 26,329 R vs 44,444 D
2022: about 30K R, between 34-37K D

Also, Abbott is doing well in the R primary there, getting between 70-85% in these counties, compared to 67% statewide.

[ElectionsGuy]

GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

Lol why are you obsessed about "GOP women". Who cares? Let's get good candidates in office instead of focusing on irrelevant things.

You are consistently endorsing or pulling for bad Candidates like Majewski!

Yeah, no, I don't back the idea of "We need as many Republicans as possible and Republican Women too!" because you just reek of electabro basement caucus. I'd rather have a House Majority of 10 with the RIGHT People (ie, great policy on trade, immigration, the family, election integrity, etc) than have a House Majority of 60 with 30 Mitt Romneys. If that's the case, tell me what's the difference between Democrats and Republicans outside of Muh Tax Cutzzz!

So yeah, Simp, leave. We don't need you in the party if you're going to be worshipping at the alter of women because women.

Can someone tell me what this means?

[ElectionsGuy]

GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

Lol why are you obsessed about "GOP women". Who cares? Let's get good candidates in office instead of focusing on irrelevant things.

You are consistently endorsing or pulling for bad Candidates like Majewski!

Yeah, no, I don't back the idea of "We need as many Republicans as possible and Republican Women too!" because you just reek of electabro basement caucus. I'd rather have a House Majority of 10 with the RIGHT People (ie, great policy on trade, immigration, the family, election integrity, etc) than have a House Majority of 60 with 30 Mitt Romneys. If that's the case, tell me what's the difference between Democrats and Republicans outside of Muh Tax Cutzzz!

So yeah, Simp, leave. We don't need you in the party if you're going to be worshipping at the alter of women because women.

Can someone tell me what this means?

When you care more about electability or care about voting for a woman because they're a woman and are "hot" instead of their actual policy. Example, Those who likes Mace and Noem despite their horrendous policies, actions, and flaws, such as Noem vetoing an anti-trans bill or Mace basically trying to be a Republican Squad-girl but you still back them because they're electable.

Ok. I'm guessing you watch a lot of Red Eagle's videos?

[ElectionsGuy]

WV-01: Mooney favored in incumbent vs incumbent matchup, but I expect geographic east/west divide. Mooney will probably do best in the eastern panhandle, while McKinley does best in the northwest.

NE-02: Most interested in partisan turnout here. Bacon has narrowly held on in both 2018 (2%) and 2020 (4.6%). D's narrowly outvoted R's in 2018, while R's narrowly outvoted D's in 2020. The district is slightly more Republican now, but Biden still won it by 6.3%.

[ElectionsGuy]

Beyond the impeachment 10, there is also an infrastructure 13. 5 of them have retired, while Don Young died suddenly. McKinley was one of those 13, and so that just got reduced by 1 tonight. So we're now down to 6 post-2022. Bacon also voted for it, but he'll probably win.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

That to a lesser extent, but mostly the long-term effects of 2020 skepticism of non-election day voting, which always came from him against the wishes of the party establishment. It's something we need to keep in mind for the general elections in 2022 as well, we're probably going to see very Dem-skewed numbers early on in many races that count early vote first, just like 2020.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

That to a lesser extent, but mostly the long-term effects of 2020 skepticism of non-election day voting, which always came from him against the wishes of the party establishment. It's something we need to keep in mind for the general elections in 2022 as well, we're probably going to see very Dem-skewed numbers early on in many races that count early vote first, just like 2020.

How much VBM was there in these primaries, though?  Probably not much?  Was it more in-person EV?

Yeah, hardly any Republicans vote by mail. So even the early in-person is notably less Trump-friendly.

[ElectionsGuy]

West Virginia Cumulative House (so far)

R: 193,409 ('20) --> 145,293
D: 172,540 ('20) --> 75,791

After decades, Dem primary turnout is finally following the loss they've endured in party registration. Dems almost outvoted R's in WV-03 and WV-01 in 2020. In 2018, Dems easily outvoted R's in combined primary totals. This time R's look to outvote them nearly 2:1.

NE-02 looks like it'll be 58-60% R vs 40-42% Dem. Statewide over 70% R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Early and mail in vote will probably overstate McCormick's support in PA, McCrory's support in NC, and next week in GA Kemp's support. It may or may not come in first, but should be noted before people make some poorly aged claims.

[ElectionsGuy]

As more rural Kentucky comes in, you'll see Booker do worse in his primary. That's an indication of dissatisfied voters who are locked into voting in their registered (but not necessarily preferred) party's primary.

[ElectionsGuy]

As more rural Kentucky comes in, you'll see Booker do worse in his primary. That's an indication of dissatisfied voters who are locked into voting in their registered (but not necessarily preferred) party's primary.

Do you think Blanton or Merrill will win a county?

Probably not, but if they do, it'll either be in coal country eastern Kentucky or far western Kentucky.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

To my knowledge Schrader has generally ran behind the Dem ticket, so whilst other things do suggest that the Rs can win here I'm not sure that that is one of them.

I already viewed it as a toss-up, this just moves the needle a tiny bit to R's. It's also something that a Dem is getting potentially primaried out for not being progressive enough. That's what R's do, I was told. R's are becoming a far-right fascist extremist party while Dems are becoming centrist.

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1526581362983051266

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

Biden +9 is literally less than a 5-point Republican win on the generic ballot nationally on average. Not steep at all actually.

Republicans on this forum greatly underestimate their own party. Almost like they've internalized the massive Dem bias here and elsewhere.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

Biden +9 is literally less than a 5-point Republican win on the generic ballot nationally on average. Not steep at all actually.

Republicans on this forum greatly underestimate their own party. Almost like they've internalized the massive Dem bias here and elsewhere.

Do you mean Democratic win? Since when is the GCB R+14?

Biden +9 was 4.5 more D than the national vote in 2020. So if national vote is R+5, that district would be highly competitive in most circumstances. R+14 would make Biden +18 ish districts competitive.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just think - all of this never would've happened had both Trump and Perdue got 0.3% more of the vote in November 2020.

 - Perdue would've won outright, he'd still be Senator today - and McConnell would still be majority leader.
 - Trump would've won Georgia, meaning no hissy fit with Kemp or Raffensburger to "find" votes.
 - And yet, Kemp curbstomped Perdue and Raffensburger won anyway.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's quite surreal to think that Kay Ivey and John Boozman were more vulnerable than Kemp the entire time.

[ElectionsGuy]

With the 177 vote difference Cisneros can and probably will call for a recount. But I don't expect it to change anything and my call for Cuellar stands.

Why do they keep reelecting this moron?

Rio Grande Hispanics aren't abortion-loving open border leftists.

"this moron" will probably save you guys a seat in November...