MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[ElectionsGuy]

Cool, Safe R --> Safe R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cook: Safe R --> Lean R

[ElectionsGuy]

Weird 5  senate republicans and zero democrats are retiring. Maybe they know something we don't.

What they "know" is that large parts of the party base have suspicion for many of these career establishment GOP senators that keep winning off the back of Trump and "not a Democrat". Every Republican that's retiring is doing so not because they're scared of the electoral environment (2022 should be better for them than 2028, for example), but because they don't like what the GOP has become and/or are scared of getting primaried. This is especially likely due to Trump's threats of primary endorsements (even though he's only endorsed 3 incumbents so far lol). In the case of Shelby it's probably just age, but everybody else probably would've run had the party not been Trumpified.

[ElectionsGuy]

Miles should come on here and explain that decision.

[ElectionsGuy]

Claire isn’t having it with the Lincoln Project’s delusion about purple MO.

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1370003483949154305?s=21

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1370004083680149510

Ok but Claire, it's impossible for a D to win this seat.

No it's not.

Doug Jones like to have a word with you about how impossible it was to win Alabama for god's sake.

It's how she said it. It's a stretch to call it a swing state, but it's not impossible to win that seat, but it will require a perfect storm and the perfect circumstances, just like for Doug Jones in 2017.

Once again: maybe in a special, sure, but this ain't a special, & even in the event of the GOP nominating a Roy Moore, regular midterm turnout would probably be enough to push the GOP over-the-line.

Three things
A midterm is not a presidential election.
Secondly, candidate quality matters
Thirdly, Missouri ain't Alabama.

I think it's a bold take to say we can't win in some state, because of ... , because things aren't permanent and not set in stone. Things can always change. Sure, it's unlikely, at least in the short-term and whatever happens, the GOP is favoured, but it's not "impossible".

Missouri is closer to Alabama in terms of margin than Florida and North Carolina. I could basically argue the same thing about New Jersey and say "New Jersey isn't Massachusetts" - true but is it really that much more winnable?

[ElectionsGuy]

This primary is a mess.

[ElectionsGuy]

Okay I'll bite...who, if nominated, has a better (recognizing still very low) chance of blowing this race? Greitens or McCloskey?

Both of them have a 0% chance of losing but Greitens would probably do worse.

[ElectionsGuy]

Eric Greitens is Kris Kobach all over again. The Dems will be deluded into thinking they can beat a flawed candidate in an r state only for said flawed candidate to lose the primary and the Dem nominee getting obliterated and a ton of money that could have actually been spent on winnable seats will have been thrown away.

Look at the 2018 New Jersey Senate race for a guide to how that will go, even if he is the nominee and is as bad as everyone says he is.