Most likely to win: Bollier, Gross, Harrison, James (user search)
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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Most likely to win: Bollier, Gross, Harrison, James (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who do you think is most likely to win?
#1
Barbara Bollier
 
#2
Al Gross
 
#3
Jaime Harrison
 
#4
John James
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 137

Author Topic: Most likely to win: Bollier, Gross, Harrison, James  (Read 2447 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
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Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: March 08, 2021, 09:45:35 AM »

Gotta appreciate not only that most people on here not only thought AK, KS, and SC races were close, but also that multiple people put James IN LAST as far as competitiveness.

Michigan looks like it's all but out of reach for Republicans at the presidential level, and I highly doubt James is gonna outrun Trump enough to win.

I'm gonna be bold and say it: I'm starting to feel like South Carolina could be North Carolina 2008. Based on recent polling, would not be surprised if Biden just barely wins it and Harrison outruns him by a few points.

Note SC is now closer for president in the FiveThirtyEight averages than Michigan...

As for the Kansas/Alaska races, I really have no idea about them. Neither narrow Gross/Bollier wins or comfortable Republican wins would shock me.

This, folks, is why you should never trust Nate Silver. I tried to warn people in the runup to the election, but instead I got a lot of scorn for bringing up his record. "It's not going to be 2016" everybody said in unison. They were actually correct about that, as far as polling and "expert" prognostication goes it was far worse.
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