ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6 (user search)
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  ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6  (Read 5464 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: September 17, 2020, 12:49:29 PM »

It's really embarrassing that any of you believe that Minnesota number. When Biden does not get 57% in Minnesota, and gets maybe 53% at best, maybe we can put to bed the idea that any Democrat that polls at or slightly above 50% is secure in their election. Maybe, some polls are just bad? Crazy idea unless it's Rasmussen or Trafalgar.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2020, 01:15:34 PM »

It's really embarrassing that any of you believe that Minnesota number. When Biden does not get 57% in Minnesota, and gets maybe 53% at best, maybe we can put to bed the idea that any Democrat that polls at or slightly above 50% is secure in their election. Maybe, some polls are just bad? Crazy idea unless it's Rasmussen or Trafalgar.

I mean this kind of feels like a post you make after the election when the vote is all in rather than one you make 50 days prior to the election in the hopes you come across as smarter than everyone else.

My point is not to sound "smarter" than anyone else. It is not difficult to spot something that is very obviously wrong. And Historically in the last 30 years, Minnesota has never voted more than 5 points left of Wisconsin. Moreover, Minnesota voted to the right of the national vote in '16, this poll is suggesting almost certainly at least a 5 point Dem trend. That would show up in other states with similar electorates (these states are not vacuums). I'm not being "bold" by suggesting this is a bad poll, many people just refuse to recognize an obviously inaccurate poll when it benefits their candidate and twist themselves full of excuses to validate the result they like.
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