ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
Posts: 21,102
Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65
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« on: September 09, 2020, 07:37:45 AM » |
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Here is Marist's track record going back to every vaguely competitive race since 2016 and recording their final poll (or any poll) that was done in the September to November period.
2016
President
Arizona: Trump +5
Florida: Clinton +1
Georgia: Trump +1
New Hampshire: Clinton +2
Nevada: Trump +1
North Carolina: Clinton +6
Ohio: Tie
Pennsylvania: Clinton +12
Senators
Arizona: McCain +16
Florida: Rubio +2
Nevada: Heck +7!!
North Carolina: Tie
Pennsylvania: McGinty +4
Notice how Republicans fared better in polling for Congress vs Trump, yet they didn't end up performing as much better as polling showed.
2018
Senators
Arizona: Sinema +6
Florida: Nelson +4
Indiana: Donnelly +3
Missouri: McCaskill +3
Nevada: Heller +2
Ohio: Brown +13
Tennessee: Blackburn +5
Wisconsin: Baldwin +14
Governors
Florida: Gillum +4
Georgia: Kemp +2 (Got it right for once!)
Nevada: Laxalt +1
Ohio: Tie
Wisconsin: Evers +8
So, what matters more to people. A pollster's track record, or their 538 rating which is clearly not rated on accuracy? I have a feeling this poll is going to end up very siimiliarly to most of these...
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