Trump is losing ground in way too many parts of PA (not just Erie, but also Pittsburgh + suburbs, Southeastern PA/Delaware Valley, college towns) for me to feel comfortable rating it a pure Tossup. His win in 2016 was certainly very impressive (more so than his win in WI), but it’s looking more and more like an aberration.
He’ll keep it close, but it’s hard to see him actually winning PA again. It’s pretty obvious that WI is the much better bet for him.
You use a county poll (which are notoriously unreliable and lag way behind the trend of counties) where Trump is 4 points behind where he was in 2016 to say that 2016 was an aberration?
