Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[ElectionsGuy]

Grimes: 55%
Knipper: 45%

Beshear: 54%
Westerfield: 46%

Edelen: 52%
Harmon: 48%

Conway: 48-49%
Bevin: 47-48%
Curtis: 3-4%

Ball: 53%
Nelson: 47%

Quarles: 57%
Spann: 43%

(By the way, something like 47-48% means between those two, I'm not considering 48.4% as 48% for this practice)

I made a final decision about the Governor's race. I'm predicting a very slight Conway victory. After looking deep into polling data and fundamentals, I think Conway winning is more likely. Here's a list of things that convinced me...

 - Matt Bevin's biggest problem is Beshear's approval rating - nearly 60%. Conway can build off that. Its the opposite of LA-Gov, where Edwards is building off of Jindal's unpopularity.
 - Conway's favorability is better than Bevin's. This matters in a non-federal election.
 - As Obama nears the end of his term, he is increasingly less relevant. Bevin can't really say OBAMA! without voters wondering why he's doing it as it has no relevance to statewide politics.
 - Conway is getting almost all Democrats. In both the 2014 Senate race and 2012 Presidential Race, the Republicans got >20% of Democrats. Independents are also up for grabs, usually heavily Republican in Kentucky.
 - Older voters (65+), more likely to be a large segment of the electorate in this low turnout environment, are actually leaning more Conway than any other age group.
 - Only around 8% are undecided. They would have to ALL go for Bevin at this point in order to save him. Many of them are mostly independent and conservative, leading to a likely Bevin-leaning demographic. Its still not enough though. There's plenty of blacks, liberals, and younger voters that haven't made up their mind.

The only points helping Bevin is the Republican trend of the state (not yet seen in statewide offices, btw) and the difficulty imaging what a map of Conway winning would look like, but those aren't very strong points. Unless the polls are completely wrong (and with the margin of error, they could be), this is the logical conclusion. So I'm predicting the margin of victory won't be as big as the polls suggest, but the late Bevin surge won't be enough. I hope I'm wrong. Still, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Bevin win by 3 points or something.

Republicans sweep all statewide offices.

Did you see the poll that had Grimes +13?

Clearly you never met Talleyrand. He thinks that the Democrats should just fold because they'll lose every election imaginable to the Republicans.

I wouldn't brush him off. He had one of the most accurate predictions in 2014.

[ElectionsGuy]

Are there links for the AP in Ohio and Kentucky?

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/KY_Page_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Ohio:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/OH_Page_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Thank you. I for the life of me can't find those on the website.

[ElectionsGuy]

Any particular county/counties we should keep our eye out on?

Coal country (to see if Conway has a rebound here or if Dems continue to slide into obsoleteness. Also Cinci suburbs and counties around Lexington. If any of them go blue, Conway has won.

[ElectionsGuy]

AoS is messed up, says Curtis has 21% of the vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

0.3% reporting

53-43-4 Bevin

All other Republicans leading by narrow margin except Ball and Quarles. I don't think this is great for Republicans, but obviously analysis is not necessary at this point.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bevin cannot be losing Letcher county. He's done if that stays.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cinci burbs coming in, 51-45 Bevin.

‏@geoffreyvs

Good news for Conway in #KYGov: His % in key Fayette Co. is 54.9%. Beshear won 54.7% there in 2011 in his easy win. We'll see if that holds.

Yeah but we'll probably see a bigger urban/rural split this time.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cinci burbs comming in, 51-45 Bevin.

Hey EG, which site are you using? I have 2 open but they don't match.

http://dd.aoshq.com/results/kentucky-governor/
http://interactives.courier-journal.com/election/2015-general/#/KY

I'm using that second one and the AP

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like down ballot D's are performing better than Conway except for AC and Treasurer.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pike County is now 100% in, going for Conway 54.1-42. Good news?

Extremely good news.

Maybe Conway's Pike County organization was just unusually good.

It's not 100%

It was a web error. Only ~400 votes in and now reads 3.5% reported.

Yeah, I was wondering what happened. Bevin would be done if that was the case though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Conway has taken the lead.

Big Lexington surge for him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kenton county going for Conway by a lot so far. May be areas close to the river, but still.

Calling it for Bevin; Conway underperforming across the board. Looks like we're nearing the end of Kentucky Democrats. RIP FFs.

Stop.

[ElectionsGuy]

Beshear, Grimes, and Edelen all at 55% with 9% in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Conway shown up by 4% in Jefferson Co - that means healthy Dem surge should accompany 6CT close in GOP Western KY

Jefferson County is Louisville, right?  If so, that's not bad for Bevin at all.

Yeah, but the inner city areas presumably still have to report, and those will be >70% Conway

[ElectionsGuy]

Boyd, Greenup, and Carter counties in the northeast are Bevin with a substantial amount reported. That's not good for Conway.

[ElectionsGuy]

Boyd, Greenup, and Carter counties in the northeast are Bevin with a substantial amount reported. That's not good for Conway.

Boyd and Carter margins are narrow

Yes, but they need to be Conway counties.

Kenton back down to a near tie. So yeah, just D areas coming in first.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bevin actually winning Pike now. Looks like many of the uber-R southern counties are reporting.

[ElectionsGuy]

Grimes 52
Knipper 48

Beshear 51
Westerfield 49

Harmon 51
Edelen 49

Ball 60
Nelson 40

Quarles 59
Spann 41

^^^ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/KY_Agriculture_Commissioner_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[ElectionsGuy]

Grimes 52
Knipper 48

Beshear 51
Westerfield 49

Harmon 51
Edelen 49

Ball 60
Nelson 40

Quarles 59
Spann 41

^^^ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/KY_Agriculture_Commissioner_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Thanks! Is  there a link for all the races for tn for other states too?

MS: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Governor_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
OH: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/OH_Page_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
VA: http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2015%20November%20General/Site/GeneralAssembly.html

[ElectionsGuy]

We'll wait until all of Lexington and Louisville is in. But yeah, I would rather be Bevin right now than Conway. I'm looking at the counties with 100% in and it looks much closer to what McConnell did to what Beshear did 4 years ago.

What county is Bowling Green in?

Warren.

[ElectionsGuy]

36% in

Bevin - 50%
Conway - 46%

Beshear - 53%
Westerfield - 47%

Edelen - 51%
Harmon - 49%

Grimes - 53%
Knipper - 47%

Ball - 59%
Nelson - 41%

Quarles - 58%
Spann - 42%

[ElectionsGuy]

% in:

Jefferson 43%
Fayette 84%
Franklin 77%

That's bad for Conway

Eh, Jefferson is a pretty huge chunk of the vote, and it looks like the rest will be pretty D-leaning. We'll see.

Besides Floyd, all counties in eastern Kentucky going for Conway are counties that Grimes won in 2014.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jefferson now 60% in. Down to a 4 point margin. Good news for D's though - Grimes, Beshear, and Edelen all leading.

[ElectionsGuy]

Congratulations Governor-elect Matt Bevin. Wow. I didn't think he'd win.

Let's be cautious. This is still close.