2014 US Congressional Election Results

[ElectionsGuy]

What is happening in East Baton Rouge? Even Obama won it twice. And she is trailing by almost 20%.

Probably Republican parts coming in first.

[ElectionsGuy]

Orleans coming in, Cassidy back down to 58

[ElectionsGuy]

LA-05 is almost done reporting. Looks like Abraham will finish with around 64%.

Cassidy carrying Jefferson Parish with 57% so far. Landrieu has won St. Bernard Parish, must have something to do with Katrina.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like Landrieu has the potential to get 44% with the amount Orleans still has to go.

[ElectionsGuy]

What is the current results?

I actually forgot about this race all day until just now.

91% precincts reporting, 57.5-42.5 Cassidy

[ElectionsGuy]

84/118 precincts left are from Orleans. She'll get close to 44%

[ElectionsGuy]

Well, the fact that she exceeded expectations means she could still possibly run for Governor or Senator in the future.

Not Thompsoned. Not Blanched. Not even Pryored/Santorumed! Well done Mary.

No, but Landrieud. She'll still end up losing by 12-13 points, that's nothing to celebrate over.

I think Cassidy could've done a little better had he actually campaigned...

84/118 precincts left are from Orleans. She'll get close to 44%

Looks like my 43.5% prediction was good

Congrats, Miles!

[ElectionsGuy]

Its 56.8-43.2 right now and the rest of the vote is New Orleans. It'll be 56-44.

On another note, Cassidy did surprisingly weak in Jefferson Parish, only 53-47. I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.

Actually, no. Landrieu's (relatively) good showing in Jefferson Parish has much more to do with demographic change since the storm.

That makes sense. Romney performed worse than Bush despite him doing better in the state. Could that explain St. Bernard, too?

All of Orleans is in and Cassidy is up 56/44.

Yeah, what a Blanching. The early votes were so deceptive, and of course pollsters did what they did all this cycle, they poll to get a response close to the overall consensus.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know that we can call this a Blanching. Blanche Lincoln lost by 21 points, George McGovern by 19, Mark Pryor by 18, Rick Santorum by 16. Mary Landrieu lost by 12, which actually seems to me like a reasonably good showing for a Democrat running statewide in modern-day Louisiana.

Pryor and Santorum actually both lost by 17

[ElectionsGuy]

^ I was kinda shocked when I saw that LA-03 went more Republican than LA-01.

Some more finalized results:

Alaska:

Dan Sullivan: 135,445 (48.0%)
Mark Begich: 129,431 (45.8%)

Illinois:

Dick Durbin: 1,929,637 (53.5%)
Jim Oberweis: 1,538,522 (42.7%)

Maine:

Susan Collins: 413,505 (68.4%)
Shenna Bellows: 190,254 (31.5%)

Massachusetts:

Ed Markey: 1,289,944 (61.9%)
Brian Herr: 791,950 (38.0%)

Michigan:

Gary Peters: 1,704,936 (54.6%)
Terri Land: 1,290,199 (41.3%)

Minnesota:

Al Franken: 1,053,205 (53.1%)
Mike McFadden: 850,227 (42.9%)

Mississippi:

Thad Cochran: 378,481 (59.9%)
Travis Childers: 239,439 (37.9%)

New Jersey:

Cory Booker: 1,043,866 (55.8%)
Jeff Bell: 791,297 (42.3%)

North Carolina:

Thom Tillis: 1,423,259 (48.8%)
Kay Hagan: 1,377,651 (47.3%)

Oregon:

Jeff Merkley: 814,537 (55.7%)
Monica Wehby: 538,847 (36.9%)

[ElectionsGuy]

When is AZ-2 expected to be finally&officially declared?

December 16th. For all intents and purposes, McSally has won.

[ElectionsGuy]

^ This would be the map, then:

I actually know why North Dakota wasn't a blowout this year. George Sinner was the former governor of North Dakota from 1985-1992. He's 86 years old.

[ElectionsGuy]

I actually know why North Dakota wasn't a blowout this year. George Sinner was the former governor of North Dakota from 1985-1992. He's 86 years old.

Yeah, but he wasn't the candidate -- the Democratic candidate in 2014 was his son, also named George Sinner.

Of course

[ElectionsGuy]

House Vote by Region:

Northeast:

Democratic: 8,489,068 (55.5%)
Republican: 6,522,615 (42.7%)

Total Votes: 15,291,808

South:

Republican: 15,041,598 (58.6%)
Democratic: 9,544,530 (37.2%)

Total Votes: 25,659,862

Midwest:

Republican: 10,521,325 (53.2%)
Democratic: 8,813,907 (44.6%)

Total Votes: 19,770,043

West:

Democratic: 8,769,339 (50.7%)
Republican: 8,083,790 (46.7%)

Total Votes: 17,308,545

Note: Louisiana's votes in LA-05 and LA-06 are the ones on election day, not the runoffs

[ElectionsGuy]

A few unimportant but interesting thing I noticed while zooming through the house races.

- Turnout was lowest in states where there was nothing going on (Indiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, etc)
- In some states (Wisconsin, New Hampshire for instance) the congressional vote literally is the same as the margin in Senate or Governors races
- Republicans now represent a 70% Hispanic seat (TX-23) and a 72% Hispanic seat (CA-21)
- Alaska turnout was actually pretty high, and the results weren't very Republican (Young only winning by 10 points, Parnell being defeated, etc)
- Massachusetts congressional vote literally >80% D. That's what happens when only 3 Republicans (out of 9 districts) even contest the seats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Only 5 Senate races this cycle were less Republican than 2008, they are - KS, MN, MS, OR, and TN. In KS, MS, and TN, incumbents had primary vulnerabilities. In MN and OR, its primarily because Franken and Merkley were defeating incumbents in '08.