So should we expect Mississippi to go Democratic before Texas? How about Georgia?
I don't know, and you can't really compare the situations anyway.
Texas and Georgia are becoming more possible for Democrats because Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, etc., are becoming more cosmopolitan cities that produce lots of educated people and attract them to move in from other states. I wish Jackson were like that, I really do, but it's not and may never be. Texas and Georgia will probably be swing states by 2028, but I doubt they will ever be solidly Democratic states -- there's still lots of religious, conservative rural areas in those states, and I know the Republicans will put a high priority on keeping them.
Mississippi, on the other hand, will reach a demographic tipping point one day and flip from solidly red to solidly blue overnight. It will happen before the state tips to majority black, since right now about 15-20% of whites vote Democratic compared to the 1-2% of blacks, and it may happen a little sooner, since, as the linked article points out, Mississippi whites over 65 are considerably more hyperRepublican than whites under 65. While I reject the idea that Mississippi is the most inelastic state in the nation (Gene Taylor, Travis Childers, and Jim Hood are evidence otherwise), it is still a pretty inelastic state, and once the flip happens, that will help the Democrats.
No it will not, in fact it will probably be the opposite. Assuming Mississippi's black population keeps growing at a slow rate, it will be a slow transition into a swing state, much like Georgia. Assuming Mississippi whites will continue to vote overwhelmingly republican, and blacks will continue to vote overwhelmingly democratic, it will be a battleground for a while, and slowly drift off to a lean, and then solid democratic state (remember we're talking years into the future here).
Just because a certain age group votes much more republican, doesn't mean that once that group dies off, there will be a huge jump in the results. People tend to vote more republican over their years anyway, and younger voters voting more democratic does not indicate that the state will instantly go from republican to democratic. In fact, if there's one state that
won't go instantly from republican to democratic, its Mississippi. Article is also way to friendly and optimistic for the democrats.
With the inelasticity argument, Nate Silver himself says its the most inelastic, and its backed up by facts. Just because Mississippi has elected white conservative democrats to Congress does not mean its not an inelastic state or even a somewhat elastic state. With the modern democratic coalition, Mississippi is indeed the most inelastic state.
I'm not at all denying that Mississippi would become democratic in the future, I definitely see it. But I think the arguments for it as of now are too hopeful and optimistic.
