Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there?

[ElectionsGuy]

There's some misconception that very white states have to vote Republican. Hint: they don't have to.  Maine is 96% white, yet Obama easily won it.

Same in Minnesota. Democratic support among white voters haven't collapsed.

In 2012, there was a huge drop of support from white voters for Obama, but this drop wasn't evenly distributed around the country: instead, this drop was of most significance in the South.

Actually, it was more the upper south. The deep south didn't improve that much among white voters when compared to huge loses in the Rock West (UT, ID, WY, MT, CO, AZ, NM, NV), Great Plains (ND, SD, KS, NE) Upper South (MO, TN, KY, AR, WV), and some of the Midwest (IN, IL, MI, WI). Mississippi for example went 88% McCain to 89% Romney, and Alabama actually lost some going from 88% McCain to 84% Romney. Minnesota didn't have a huge drop, so the 2012 result was pretty similar to the 2008 result. New England didn't get affected that much by the drop off either besides maybe Delaware and Connecticut. But yes, white voters across the country not including the south can go from Solid R (UT, WY, AZ) to Toss-Up (MN, NY, IA) to Solid D (VT, ME, MA)

[ElectionsGuy]

In case people are interested...Change in White Vote for all 2012 exit poll states...

Alabama - 88% McCain, 84% Romney
Arizona - 59% McCain, 66% Romney
California - 52% Obama, 53% Romney
Colorado - 50% Obama, 54% Romney
Connecticut - 51% Obama, 51% Obama
Florida - 56% McCain, 61% Romney
Illinois - 51% Obama, 52% Romney
Indiana - 54% McCain, 60% Romney
Iowa - 51% Obama, 51% Obama
Kansas - 59% McCain, 64% Romney
Maine - 58% Obama, 57% Obama
Maryland - 49% McCain, 55% Romney
Massachusetts - 59% Obama, 57% Obama
Michigan - 50% McCain, 55% Romney
Minnesota - 53% Obama, 49% Romney
Mississippi - 88% McCain, 89% Romney
Missouri - 57% McCain, 65% Romney
Montana - 52% McCain, 59% Romney
Nevada - 53% McCain, 56% Romney
New Hampshire - 54% Obama, 51% Obama
New Jersey - 50% McCain, 56% Romney
New Mexico - 56% McCain, 56% Romney
New York - 52% Obama, 49% Obama/Romney
North Carolina - 64% McCain, 68% Romney
Ohio - 52% McCain, 57% Romney
Oregon - 57% Obama, 54% Obama
Pennsylvania - 51% McCain, 57% Romney
Vermont - 68% Obama, 66% Obama
Virginia - 60% McCain, 61% Romney
Washington - 55% Obama, 53% Obama
Wisconsin - 54% Obama, 51% Romney.

[ElectionsGuy]

In case people are interested...Change in White Vote for all 2012 exit poll states...

Thanks. I rearranged it from most to least drop off.


1. Missouri - 57% McCain, 65% Romney - R+8
2. Arizona - 59% McCain, 66% Romney - R+7 (strange thing they preferred Romney to their ow son!)
3. Montana - 52% McCain, 59% Romney - R+7
4. California - 52% Obama, 53% Romney - R+6-7
5. Wisconsin - 54% Obama, 51% Romney - R+6-7?
6. Indiana - 54% McCain, 60% Romney - R+6
7. Pennsylvania - 51% McCain, 57% Romney - R+6
8. New Jersey - 50% McCain, 56% Romney - R+6
9. Maryland - 49% McCain, 55% Romney - R+6
10. Colorado - 50% Obama, 54% Romney - R+5-6?
11. Kansas - 59% McCain, 64% Romney - R+5
12. Florida - 56% McCain, 61% Romney - R+5
13. Ohio - 52% McCain, 57% Romney - R+5
14. Michigan - 50% McCain, 55% Romney - R+5
15. Illinois - 51% Obama, 52% Romney - -R+4-5?
16. North Carolina - 64% McCain, 68% Romney - R+4
17. Minnesota - 53% Obama, 49% Romney - R+3-4?
18. Nevada - 53% McCain, 56% Romney - R+3
19. Oregon - 57% Obama, 54% Obama - R+3
20. New Hampshire - 54% Obama, 51% Obama - R+3
21. New York - 52% Obama, 49% Obama/Romney - R+3
22. Washington - 55% Obama, 53% Obama - R+2
23. Massachusetts - 59% Obama, 57% Obama - R+2
24. Vermont - 68% Obama, 66% Obama - R+2
25. Mississippi - 88% McCain, 89% Romney - R+1
26. Virginia - 60% McCain, 61% Romney - R+1
27. Maine - 58% Obama, 57% Obama - R+1
28. New Mexico - 56% McCain, 56% Romney - No change
29. Connecticut - 51% Obama, 51% Obama - No change
29. Iowa - 51% Obama, 51% Obama - No change
31. Alabama - 88% McCain, 84% Romney - D+4


So is Alabama becoming more like Missouri? What could explain these huge differences among the states, being a difference of R+12 among Missouri and Alabama (R+24 when you count the margin instead). Sampling error? Or could it be as simple as very religious Alabamans not trusting a Marmon, while religious Missourians apparently did trust him?

Alabama only got slightly more republican, white vote increased while black vote decreased, I think that's one of the only states in the country that did that in 2012. Missouri whites, just like AR, OK, TN, KY are becoming more republican, I think a lot of republican leaning whites trusted Obama the first time (just like Indiana). He did campaign there I believe so he got trust within his speeches, and might have lost trust because of ridiculous promises he made (I don't mean to make this partisan, but it's true). I have no idea why AL whites dropped off, and have no idea whether it was about Romney being a Mormon, or if there was just no where else to go but down.

What I'm most surprised about was New Mexico, white vote was exactly the same. According to the exit polls Hispanics got more republican, although there was a very clear republican trend so I would think white voters would at least get 1-2% more republican.

Would you like me to do a list based on margins for states and not just the % won?

Model: Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney

[ElectionsGuy]

Would you like me to do a list based on margins for states and not just the % won?

Model: Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney

Would be nice.

Alright:

Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney
Arizona: 59%-40% McCain, 66%-32% Romney
California: 52%-46% Obama, 53%-45% Romney
Colorado: 50%-48% Obama, 54%-44% Romney
Connecticut: 51%-46% Obama, 51%-48% Obama
Florida: 56%-42% McCain, 61%-37% Romney
Illinois: 51%-48% Obama, 52%-46% Romney
Indiana: 54%-45% McCain, 60%-38% Romney
Iowa: 51%-47% Obama, 51%-47% Obama
Kansas: 59%-40% McCain, 64%-33% Romney
Maine: 58%-40% Obama, 57%-40% Obama
Maryland: 49%-47% McCain, 55%-43% Romney
Massachusetts: 59%-39% Obama, 57%-42% Obama
Michigan: 51%-47% Obama, 55%-44% Romney*
Minnesota: 53%-46% Obama, 49%-48% Romney
Mississippi: 88%-11% McCain, 89%-10% Romney
Missouri: 57%-42% McCain, 65%-32% Romney
Montana: 52%-45% McCain, 59%-38% Romney
Nevada: 53%-45% McCain, 56%-43% Romney
New Hampshire: 54%-44% Obama, 51%-47% Obama
New Jersey: 50%-49% McCain, 56%-43% Romney
New Mexico: 56%-42% McCain, 56%-41% Romney
New York: 52%-46% Obama, 49%-49% Obama/Romney
North Carolina: 64%-35% McCain, 68%-31% Romney
Ohio: 52%-46% McCain, 57%-41% Romney
Oregon: 57%-40% Obama, 54%-44% Obama
Pennsylvania: 51%-48% McCain, 57%-42% Romney
Vermont: 68%-31% Obama, 66%-33% Obama
Virginia: 60%-39% McCain, 61%-37% Romney
Washington: 55%-42% Obama, 53%-46% Obama
Wisconsin: 54%-45% Obama, 51%-48% Romney

* = I accidentally reported wrong in Michigan. I reported white men who went 50%-48% McCain. Whites went 51%-47% Obama. Let me know if you catch any others.

Nope that's the only one I got wrong, so your increase might be R+6/7?

[ElectionsGuy]

What do you all think is the Democrats' equivalent of Minnesota? I suppose the strongest contender is North Dakota, although a case could have been made for Virginia pre-2008.

Minnesota is a leaning D state in which the GOP can't seem to do anything.

So by opposite you mean, a leaning R state in which the Dems can't seem to do anything?

I would say maybe North Carolina, but the Dems are making indentations there in presidential races. Arizona or Missouri seems like a good answer here.

By the 2012 election, its polar opposite, meaning the state the leans just as republican as Minnesota does democrat, is Florida... Yes, that's right. Wisconsin is a perfect match for opposite of Florida, but Florida is the closest republican state to Minnesota.

Minnesota: D+3.8%
Florida: R+3.0%

The Florida democratic party is having troubles at the state level, but Obama did win the state twice (granted by very small margins) so I wouldn't exactly call it an opposite of Minnesota when it comes to general political success of the republican party in Florida as compared to the general political success of the democratic party in Minnesota.