North Carolina: Democratic Trend Slowing Down? (user search)
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  North Carolina: Democratic Trend Slowing Down? (search mode)
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Author Topic: North Carolina: Democratic Trend Slowing Down?  (Read 3092 times)
ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: July 12, 2013, 06:12:45 PM »

From 2000 to 2012 here are the trends rounded to nearest tenth.

2000: R+13.3% (R+0.1%)
2004: R+10.0% (D+3.3%)
2008: R+6.9%  (D+3.1%)
2012: R+5.9%  (D+1.0%)

I realize this is quite minor, but it could mean a lot in the future. Is this trend really slowing down? If so how long will republicans be able to sustain the state for their party assuming the trend continues? Or... could the trend possibly reverse?
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2013, 06:35:48 PM »

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

Ha, you mean what their doing at the state level? I haven't been following it much, but what from I hear is that they're actually doing pretty ridiculous things that could have an affect on the 2014 Senate seat which as of now is considered a Toss-Up. I'll check the other thread to see what's actually going on.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2013, 07:06:12 PM »

I see, a lot of this is actually for the better (My Opinion)

1. Unemployment Benefits: Better

2. Tax Overhaul: Better

3. Racial Justice Repeal: Worse

4. Fracking: Better

5. Medicaid Expansion: Better

6. Voting Laws: Better

7. Gun Laws: Worse

8. Education: Better

9. State Religion: Worse

If you want to know why I feel this way on any of these just ask.
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ElectionsGuy
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*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2013, 09:53:28 PM »


"War on Women".
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ElectionsGuy
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*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2013, 12:03:14 PM »

I see, a lot of this is actually for the better (My Opinion)

1. Unemployment Benefits: Better

2. Tax Overhaul: Better

3. Racial Justice Repeal: Worse

4. Fracking: Better

5. Medicaid Expansion: Better

6. Voting Laws: Better

7. Gun Laws: Worse

8. Education: Better

9. State Religion: Worse

If you want to know why I feel this way on any of these just ask.



How is it "better" that they are:


*slashing unemployment benefits
"ending federal unemployment benefits for 70,000 residents. Another 100,000 will lose their checks in a few months. Those still receiving benefits will find that they have been cut by a third, to a maximum of $350 weekly from $535, and the length of time they can receive benefits has been slashed from 26 weeks to as few as 12 weeks. "

*cutting education
"cutting back sharply on spending for public schools. Though North Carolina has been growing rapidly, it is spending less on schools now than it did in 2007, ranking 46th in the nation in per-capita education dollars. Teacher pay is falling, 10,000 prekindergarten slots are scheduled to be removed, and even services to disabled children are being chopped.
“We are losing ground,” Superintendent June Atkinson said recently, warning of a teacher exodus after lawmakers proposed ending extra pay for teachers with master’s degrees, cutting teacher assistants and removing limits on class sizes. "


*not expanding Medicaid

*cutting income taxes for rich while raising sales taxes on everyone else

*cutting back on early voting and Sunday voting

*ending a tax deduction for dependents if students vote at college instead of their hometowns


Slashing Unemployment Benefits: This should motivate you to get a job. The only people that should be receiving benefits are the people looking for jobs.

Cutting income taxes for rich while raising sales taxes on everyone else: I though it was a flat cut for everyone, a cut just for the rich is completely unfair and I disagree with it.

Cutting back on early voting and Sunday voting: I never read about this, but this sounds stupid, however raising voter ID laws reduces fraud which is what I agree with.

Not expanding Medicaid: Only should be used for poor people who really need it. There should be no "fakers" out there reaching out to Medicaid when they don't need it, so I think this is for the better and worse.

Education: Expanding the voucher system lets parents choose the kind of school they want.

Ending Tax Deduction: Disagree
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2013, 02:31:31 AM »
« Edited: July 14, 2013, 02:34:31 AM by Waukesha County »

It's slowing down but trends don't go on forever. It will be more interesting to see how a non-Obama candidate does. Obama did well with the African American population in the tar heel state and he won the election so those are two reasons for over performance.

North Carolina is moving slower to the left because of the recession. The pace will probably pickup again.

Also, it is incorrect to assume that it will move back because Obama is not on the ticket.

Obama may have performed well among the African Americans, but he performed poorly among Southern whites. A different Democratic candidate can improve the margin of Southern whites.

That's a great point, but Bush didn't appear to do that much worse than Romney did and he actually did better than Romney with whites in NC. Really the turnout numbers aren't stressed enough. The reason southern states trended D is because of increased black turnout, even though Whites went slightly more republican. Also let's not forget that white turnout was not fantastic this election cycle so we'll see where turnout is at.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/28/black-voter-turnout-2012-election_n_3173673.html

Also, how could a recession effect state trends? Is NC in a recession?
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