COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[emailking]

And once everyone who wants to be vaccinated is vaccinated, why limit it to small groups? Why any limits whatsoever?  

Because it might not be herd immunity and people who don't want to be vaccinated can still get sick and die, as can the 5-40% of those for whom the vaccine is not effective.

The vaccines have been shown to be basically 100% effective against death and hospitalization.  People who don't want to take it and want to die from covid instead should feel free to die from covid if that is their choice.

You may have a point, but that's why there will be limits.

[emailking]

I am seeing a lot of left wing attacks on the Johnson and Johnson vaccine.....

that is not the messaging we need

Don't worry about it.....

Why wouldn't you worry about it? Seems like a big deal if that's happening.

[emailking]

The Covid-19 pandemic almost didn't happen, a new genetic dating study shows

The coronavirus pandemic almost didn't happen, a new study shows.

Researchers working to show when and how the virus first emerged in China calculate that it probably did not infect the first human being until October 2019 at the very earliest. And their models showed something else: It almost didn't make it as a pandemic virus.

Only bad luck and the packed conditions of the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan -- the place the pandemic appears to have begun -- gave the virus the edge it needed to explode around the globe, the researchers reported in the journal Science.

...

"It gives you some perspective -- these events are probably happening much more frequently than we realize. They just don't quite make it and we never hear about them," Worobey said.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/18/health/coronavirus-bad-luck-genetic-study-scn/index.html

[emailking]

So why is it not racist to refer to the new variants as the South African/Brazilian?

I don't think it's inherently racist to call it the China virus; but Trump's intent was to disparage the Chinese, not identify the virus by region.

[emailking]

The experts have been predicting for weeks now that cases would go up again because of the more contagious variants. Hopefully it won't be by too much.

[emailking]

AstraZeneca vaccine is 79% effective against symptomatic Covid-19, company says

AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine showed 79% efficacy against symptomatic disease and 100% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalization in a new, US-based clinical trial, the company said Monday.

The findings from the new Phase 3 trial, which included more than 32,000 participants, may boost confidence in the vaccine, which was originally developed by the University of Oxford.

The trial showed that the vaccine was well-tolerated and identified no safety concerns, the company said. An independent committee "found no increased risk of thrombosis or events characterized by thrombosis among the 21,583 participants receiving at least one dose of the vaccine," according to AstraZeneca.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/22/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-efficacy-us-based-clinical-trial/index.html

[emailking]

Nobody here is trying to prop up Nate's stream of thoughts on this subject.

[emailking]

I think you have to PM Virginia if you want the name changed. It's her thread, and I don't know if she's reading this thread that much these days.

[emailking]

COVID cases down to record lows not seen since September in Texas, three weeks after Gov Abbott allowed the mask mandates to expire.  

The decline might be even steeper in Mississippi.

Definitive proof that masks cause COVID.

[emailking]

Biden plans to move deadline for vaccine eligibility

President Joe Biden plans to announce Tuesday that he is moving up his deadline for states to make all American adults eligible for a coronavirus vaccine by almost two weeks.

With all states having opened eligibility to the public or at least having announced when they plan to do so, Biden will announce that every adult in the country will be eligible to be vaccinated by April 19, according to an administration official, instead of Biden's original deadline of May 1.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/06/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-deadline-biden/index.html

[emailking]

I don’t understand how people could support a mask mandate but not a vaccine mandate. 

Getting a shot once or twice is obviously both much, much, more effective and much less inconvenient than wearing a mask everywhere for more than a year.

I don't support a vaccine mandate given how prevalent and bad the side effects can be. This is different from whether i think everyone should get it, they should! But I don't think the government should be allowed to force you to get sick.

I support a mask mandate because it is generally non-intrusive and there are carve outs for people who have medical issues with wearing one. The length of time we have to do it for is irrelevant to me.

[emailking]

I don’t understand how people could support a mask mandate but not a vaccine mandate. 

Getting a shot once or twice is obviously both much, much, more effective and much less inconvenient than wearing a mask everywhere for more than a year.

I don't support a vaccine mandate given how prevalent and bad the side effects can be. This is different from whether i think everyone should get it, they should! But I don't think the government should be allowed to force you to get sick.

I support a mask mandate because it is generally non-intrusive and there are carve outs for people who have medical issues with wearing one. The length of time we have to do it for is irrelevant to me.

I just can’t fathom how anyone can feel like the side effects that one may feel for one day after taking a vaccine are worse than having to wear a mask for an entire year.  Especially considering that masks are nowhere near as effective!

The average individual does not have the scientific training to understand how vaccines work or competently evaluate the pros and cons of taking them.  These decisions should be made by scientists, not individuals.  That’s why we mandate vaccines among children, and courts have already approved vaccine mandates for adults in several other contexts.

I can fathom it, but it doesn't matter to me. It's not about which one is worse on some kind of subjective metric.

I don't think it matters what the scientists think of the cost benefit analysis. That's great information of course, but doesn't obviate personal freedom.

I'm ambivalent about the other vaccines too. I at least don't think they should be mandated for adults who don't already have them somehow.

[emailking]

I don't know how Fauci should word it exactly, but I definitely don't think he's trying to gaslight.

[emailking]

Michigan, a state that has seen unprecedented and unconstitutional restrictions implemented in response to the coronavirus, is seeing a record surge.  Yesterday, the state recorded over 8000 cases.

Texas, a state which lifted their remaining restrictions a month ago, is near an all time low in cases.  They are nearly 3x the population of Michigan, but they only recorded 2500 cases yesterday.

It is clear what works and what doesn't.  If you still support lockdowns and mask mandates at this point, there is no point having a reasonable conversation.  If you only selectively support "freedom" and democracy when it benefits your side, you are part of the problem.  It is time to reopen America now, and fully, before it is too late.

If you can articulate a reason for me either why a lockdown causes more cases or why not having a lockdown reduces cases I'll consider it. Otherwise, I see no reason to assume a positive correlation there. And I don't care if you think that's reasonable or not lol.

[emailking]

Let's be honest, nobody is going to be convinced that the other side is right, so what's the point.

You could potentially convince me if you can explain to me how lockdowns cause cases or lack of lockdowns reduce cases, which is what you seem to be implying. You ignored my post though. :shrugs:

[emailking]

Let's be honest, nobody is going to be convinced that the other side is right, so what's the point.

You could potentially convince me if you can explain to me how lockdowns cause cases or lack of lockdowns reduce cases, which is what you seem to be implying. You ignored my post though. :shrugs:

Let's put it this way. Long, national/state lockdowns (as against to shorter, targeted lockdowns) are probably much less important in the long run than we previously thought. Meanwhile the drawbacks - economical and mental on adults, and educational and mental on kids - of such lockdowns are probably even more devastating that we thought.

Maybe but that seems like a different argument. I can process that logic, and maybe extended lockdowns are, in fact, bad. But I don't follow how lockdowns don't work to reduce cases.

[emailking]

Is there actually a sizeable contingent of liberals supporting permanent online schooling? What would even be the reason for that? I thought many wanted it until the Fall or maybe until next year at the latest.

[emailking]

If the CDC is recommending a pause in the vaccine, that's good enough for me. They have plenty of doctors, epidemiologists, statisticians, etc. to look at the issue; and I'm sure they didn't make the decision lightly.

[emailking]

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

That sounds like you're saying we need to trick people. We need people to think health officials are sure that vaccinated people can't spread the virus (though they aren't) so they'll take the vaccine so they don't die (which they are sure of).

[emailking]

No, there is no need to trick people that vaccines are more effective than the actually are.  Health officials are indeed not telling people the truth about what we already know.   They are intentionally downplaying their effectiveness.

All of the evidence suggests that being vaccinated reduces all risks associated with covid to an extremely low level, certainly lower than any number of other risks we encounter on a daily basis without a second thought.  Given this, the risk is low enough that any health precautions beyond those we would have taken pre-pandemic are not warranted.

I don't see any reason to think they're not telling the truth.

[emailking]

First Poll:

https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1382436908689657867?s=20

This is good but potentially doesn't tell us much. The more confident folks may feel a little less uneasy about their decision to get a vaccine, but their mind hasn't changed. The less confident folks might not get one now. It could be the other way too, but it's not enough to know whether it will lead to more or fewer vaccinations.

[emailking]

Johnson & Johnson seems to have done the right thing here out of caution. It's an example of corporate accountability that I wish more corporations would demonstrate throughout their existence.

What do you mean? The CDC and FDA asked for the pause, and Johnson & Johnson defended themselves and said there's no link established with the blood clots.

[emailking]

This J&J outcry is ridiculous. Fauci is and always has been a fool

Wasn't his decision, but he's explained pretty well that this kind of a pause is not atypical. It's just extremely high profile in this case.

[emailking]

I don't think outdoor transmission is that nonexistent when you're packed together like that. There's less transmission outdoors because the virus gets carried away and diluted but it's still there and that doesn't happen instantly, it's still in the air right around you after you breathe.

[emailking]

I have not heard anyone call for permanent masking. I keep seeing in this thread that people for calling for this, but I haven't otherwise heard of that. What even would be the reason for it?