Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

There is an internal conflict inside PSOL regarding to having an own candidate or endorsing Lula already in the first round. The pro-Lula wing was stronger few months ago, but since the suggestion of a Lula/Alckmin ticket appeared, the wing supporting the own candidate became stronger.
If PSOL has its own candidate, probably this candidate will have between 3 and 5%, and it would be very hard for Lula to win already in the first round.

[buritobr]

For 2022, TSE (Supreme Electoral Court) changed the voting time.

Until 2018, in all the time zones, the polls opened at 8am and closed at 5pm.
Brazil has 4 time zones.
UTC-2: Fernando de Noronha
UTC-3: Brasília
UTC-4: Amazonas
UTC-5: Acre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_in_Brazil
The large majority of the Brazilian population live at UTC-3, the Brasília time. The polls closed in Acre only at 7pm in Brasília, 2 hours after the large majority of the polls were already closed. But since there were people voting in Acre until it was 7pm in Brasília, no exit polls and no release of partial results were allowed before 5pm in Acre (pr 7pm in Brasília). But due to the electronic vote, the proceeding is very fast, so, at 7pm in Brasília, 80% of the polls were already proceeded. So, the first results released were the ones when 80% of the votes were already counted. Before 7pm in Brasília, some journalists used to have some insider information of the counting and published it in the Twitter.
In order to avoid these problems, the TSE establish a new voting time
UTC-2: polls open at 9am and close at 6pm
UTC-3: polls open at 8am and close at 5pm
UTC-4: polls open at 7am and close at 4pm
UTC-3: polls open at 6am and close at 3pm
So, all the polls close at the same time, at 5pm in Brasília, and at this time, the media will be allowed to show exit polls and the first results.

But probably there will be very few exit polls. Since the proceeding is very fast, the pollsters don't see motives to spend resources in exist polls. Datafolha doesn't make exit polls anymore. Ibope was the last one to have exit polls, but this pollster was replaced by Ipec.

If these new rules created by TSE were applied in the US, the polls in Hawai would close very early in order to have the same voting time of New York.

[buritobr]

This Sunday evening, there was a dinner in which many left/center-left/center/center-right politicians participated. Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, Geraldo Alckmin, Márcio França, Marcelo Freixo, Simone Tebet, Rodrigo Garcia, Marília Arraes, Fernando Haddad, Rui Costa, Alessandro Molon, Randolfe Rodrigues, Gleisi Hoffmann, Aloizio Mercadante, Marta, Rodrigo Maia, Omar Aziz, Arthur Virgílio, Alessandro Molon, Gilberto Kassab, Paulinho da Força were there. It's nice to see that the talks concerning an anti-far-right broad front for 2022 are advanced.

[buritobr]

It´s getting closer!
If a couple produces a baby today, this baby will born in the day of the first round

[buritobr]

Datafolha, December 13th-16th 2021

Partisan preference
PT 28%
PSDB 2%
MDB 2%
PDT 1%
PSOL 1%
PL 1%
No preferred party 54%

Only PT has preference. The others are tied with zero in the margin of error.
Most of the people who have no preferred party is right-wing.

[buritobr]

Yeah,
PT almost recovered its popularity of the time before the big protests, Lava Jato Operation and the economic downturn of 2014-2016.
The biggest change of the Brazilian politics from early 2013 to early 2022 is that former center-right voters became far-right voters.

[buritobr]

First Bolsonaro's job approval poll of 2022

PoderData, January 2nd-4th:

Good/Very good: 24%
Regular: 14%
Bad/Very bad: 57%

I don't remember any president, governor, mayor who had similar approval rate on January of the election year and was reelected in October.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, January 6th-9th 2022

First round
Lula 45%, Jair Bolsonaro 23%, Sergio Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 5%, João Doria 3%
Blank/null 8%, undecided 4%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%, blank/null 13%, undecided 3%
Lula 50%, Sergio Moro 30%, blank/null 16%, undecided 3%

[buritobr]

Following Pedro Sanchez's example, Lula considered the possibility to change the labor reform implemented by Temer's administration 2017. This reform weakened labor protection and increased the possibility of temporary employment. Unemployment is still at 13%, and it is becoming clear the growth is more important than "flexible" labor market in order to create more jobs.
Until some few days ago, Lula seemed to don't look for a left-wing economic agenda. It looked like that he was looking for the non leftist generic anti-Bolsonaro vote.
But he made a move to the left this weak.

Lula sometimes move to the left, sometimes to the center, sometimes to the left... since he is in politics, in 1978

[buritobr]

I believe Lula will win, but not by this margin the polls are showing now. I don't think he will repeat 2002 and 2006 margin (61-39). The left always does better in polls conducted many months before the vote, because more left-wing people care for politics when it is not campaign time. The right usually grows in the final weaks.
I think Lula will win like 55-45 in the runoff against Bolsonaro all other right-wing candidates. I think Lula will win all the states Haddad won in 2018 plus Amazonas, Amapá, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. Maybe São Paulo and Espírito Santo. But I am almost sure the right will hold Paraná, Santa Catarina, all the Center-West, Acre, Rondônia, Roraima.

[buritobr]

I believe Lula will win, but not by this margin the polls are showing now. I don't think he will repeat 2002 and 2006 margin (61-39). The left always does better in polls conducted many months before the vote, because more left-wing people care for politics when it is not campaign time. The right usually grows in the final weaks.
I think Lula will win like 55-45 in the runoff against Bolsonaro all other right-wing candidates. I think Lula will win all the states Haddad won in 2018 plus Amazonas, Amapá, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. Maybe São Paulo and Espírito Santo. But I am almost sure the right will hold Paraná, Santa Catarina, all the Center-West, Acre, Rondônia, Roraima.

Distrito Federal hates Bolsonaro, so them too. And I would put Goiás in the middle of the balance as well, probably being the most toss-up one alongside Mato Grosso do Sul and (lol) Paraná although I think those two could eventually go to Bolsonaro. What you say about the right having some growth in final weeks could be true (we saw Crivella lowering his defeat from 70% to something like 65% in 2020) but we also saw Dilma gaining ground in the last minute of the 2014 elections.

What happens imo is not a politicized left-right last minute vote, but the fact that people who pay less attention to politics, generally lower levels of education, make their decisions in the last minute more often. In Rio 2020 that naturally helped Crivella because of his appeal with religious groups in lower income neighborhoods of the city. In Brazil 2014 that helped Dilma because the PT naturally has more appeal with lower education groups than with PSDB.

In Brazil 2022 it’s just hard to predict who will benefit from this because you could make an argument from both Lula or Bolsonaro because of the different sides of populism. However, with the economy weak with no prospects of getting better this year, I am guessing it’s actually Lula who will benefit from this last minute bump. I am assuming Bolsonaro could regain some ground maybe with the campaign (still not quite sold, but very possible), but Lula would get most of those last minute voters and easily win with >60% in an eventual runoff (assuming it doesn’t end in 1st round).

It’s not even merit of the left or anything. People just really hate Bolsonaro now because they see him as incompetent. The ideological discussion lost way too much ground since 2018 with the average people, very few care anymore because they’re exhausted and just want to eat at this point.

Lula areas for 2022:
Northeast region
Southeast region
Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins
Rio Grande do Sul
Distrito Federal

The most toss-up like ones:
Paraná (lol, I know but goes in line with the trend)
Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás

Bolsonaro areas for 2022:
Roraima, Acre, Rondônia
Santa Catarina
Mato Grosso

In the more optimistic Bolsonaro scenario, I think he can get these I’m listing as a toss-up but I really doubt he wins any of these “Lula” states.

Polls of early 2014 were showing the possibility of Dilma Rousseff winning in the first round
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_de_opini%C3%A3o_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2014
More recent elections: in mid 2020, polls were showing Manuela d'Ávila leading in Porto Alegre, Coser leading in Vitória, and Edmílson holding a much higher margin in Belém than he really had. The exception was Guilherme Boulos in São Paulo, who was not polling well. But he wasn't a very well known candidate.

[buritobr]

I don't really see Lula taking Paraná or Mató Grosso do Sul. And in my mind, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro are toss-ups, with SP being only slightly leaning towards Lula. I hope I'm wrong but what I see is a huge territorial polarization but Bolsonaro still retaining some of his strongholds, even in Rio.

Polls conducted in 2021 showed Lula leading in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul. In Distrito Federal, Bolsonaro had a small lead, but he and Lula had a tie considering the margin of error.

[buritobr]

Real Time Big Data Poll January 17th

State of Rio Grande do Sul

Governor scenario 1

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) 25%
Ivo Sartori (MDB) 16%
Onyx Lorenzoni (UB) 13%
Pedro Ruas (PSOL) 4%
Edegar Pretto (PT) 4%

Governor scenario 6, no Leite no Sartori (the one which has the biggest probability)

Onyx Lorenzoni (UB) 20%
Pedro Ruas (PSOL) 6%
Beto Albuquerque (PSB) 5%
Edegar Pretto (PT) 4%
Heinze (PP) 4%

Senator

Manuela d'Ávila 17%
Hamilton Mourão 14%
Ana Amélia Lemos 13%
Ivo Sartori 11%
Lasier Martins 10%
Paulo Pimenta 4%

https://www.correiodopovo.com.br/not%C3%ADcias/pol%C3%ADtica/leite-e-sartori-lideram-inten%C3%A7%C3%B5es-de-voto-no-rs-aponta-pesquisa-1.756744
https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1483193677623222275

It's an worrying issue that in Rio Grande do Sul, the most progressive state of the South Region, the sum of far right candidates Onyx Lorenzoni and Heinze is 24%

However, we have to observe that the client of Real Time Big Data is the pro Bolsonaro TV Record. In this poll, the interviewed people were not informed about the parties of the candidates. In Atlas poll, in which the parties of the candidates were informed, PT candidate Pretto had 20%.

[buritobr]

How would Bolsonaro react to a defeat? Could we see events unfolding looking like a redux of the 2020 transition period in the US? I don't know enough to say how credible polling in Brazil is and there's still about 10 months left, but it appears Bolsonaro is pretty much done.

I don't think anything serious will happen. Maybe, Jair Bolsonaro and his kids would writte claims about "voter fraud" in the Twitter. Some retired generals could do it too. Maybe, some dozens of demonstrators wearing yellow shirts and waving the imperial flag could do some street protests.
And if Lula wins, probably Bolsonaro will not participate in the cerimony of the transfer of the presidential sash on the presidential innauguration on January 1st 2023. Usually the leaving president transfers the sash to the elected president in the inauguration. But I think Lula will receive the sash from the cerimony staff, like reelected presidents (who don't have a leaving president to transfer).

[buritobr]

When, the biggest enemy of Bolsonaro, Trump and their followers is not the left, the communism, the cultural marxism, the progressive movements, ... their biggest enemy is the reality. They hate the reality and always try to eliminate it. If they contest a election in which the margin was not narrow, I would not see it as a surprise.

[buritobr]

David Miranda, who is Glenn Greenwald's husband, left PSOL and joined PDT.
He was becoming less important in PSOL and probably he wouldn't be elected federal representative in PSOL. Other PSOL candidates in Rio de Janeiro would have more votes in order to fill the seats.
Besides, very left-wing voters became less willing to vote for him, considering new Greenwald's views.

[buritobr]

Pelé has cancer in the liver, in the intestine and in the lunger. Probably he will not survive until October. Very sad. He usually doesnt't speak about politics very often, but when he is asked, he shows he is more to the right than to the left. He was the Minister of Sports of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-1998), the centrist president who was endorsed by the right. Even being a black superstar in a country in which the racial inequality is very high, he was never a strong activist in the black movement (and it is not his obligation, he does what he wants). No matter Pelé's political views, he is a legend.

Gisele Bundchen has already endorsed Marina Silva because, as it was mentioned, she cares about the environment. But Marina Silva will not run in 2022, and the model didn't speak yet which candidate she is endorsing.

Neymar made a public endorsement for Aécio Neves in 2014, his father openly supports Bolsonaro, but Neymar didn't make public endorsement in 2018. He plays in Europe and maybe the Europeans would not have a positive view if the player made a public endorsement for Bolsonaro.

Most of the Brazilian soccer is right-wing. Rivaldo and Ronaldinho Gaúcho are open Bolsonaro supporters. Ronaldo (Fenomeno) didn't make a public endorsement for Bolsonaro but he has already endorsed other right-wing candidates. Romário is a senator of the state of Rio de Janeiro, he has already supported leftists in the past, but he considers himself a Bolsonaro's ally.

One of the few exceptions is Sócrates, player of the national team of 1982 and 1986, and famous for his left-wing activism. Some team mates of him in Corinthians in the early 1980s were also left-wing.

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll second half January 2022

First round
Lula 44%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Sergio Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 2%, others 3%
None 8%, undecided 4%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%
Lula 50%, Sergio Moro 31%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 23%
Regular: 21%
Bad/very bad: 55%

[buritobr]

Today I was thinking that with Olavo's death, the possibility of another far right wing movement breaks from Bolsonaro (as Weintreub, if not in jail) got lower, at least in the moment. In States, it can make difference.

Olavo de Carvalho has already created his cattle. His dead now won't make difference. His followers will keep his "work".

[buritobr]

Some state level polls

Bahia, January 19-22nd, Opnus
President: Lula 59%, Bolsonaro 21%, Moro 5%, Ciro 4%
Governor: ACM Neto 52%, Jaques Wagner 29%

Goiás, January 21-24th, Serpes/Acieg
President: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 27,8%, Moro 8,1%, Ciro 2,5%
Governor: Caiado 37,1%, Perillo 14,1%, Medanha 13%

In Bahia, the poll showed a result similar to 2018. Maybe, in the Northeast, PT has already achieved its peak in 2006/2010/2014/2018. Maybe, there is no room to swing even more to the left.
In Goiás, the polls is showing a big swing. Goiás is a very conservative state and Bolsonaro won a landslide there in 2018.

[buritobr]

Except Distrito Federal, which used to vote on the left of the country until 2002, the other 3 states in the Center-West voted on the right of the country in every presidential election since 1989.
But you are correct: usually they don't vote too much on the right, like Acre, Roraima, Rondônia and Santa Catarina. Since 2002, São Paulo votes on the right of the Center-West.

[buritobr]

Results of the presidential elections from 1989 to 2018 in the cities (not states) of

São Paulo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXmHOpKk9Gs&t=30s

Rio de Janeiro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsDnDuRNy20

You can see the full results, and the maps which shows the results in the boroughs.

In São Paulo, the left won only in 2002. The winners were
1989: Covas 1sr round, Collor 2nd round
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
1998: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
2002: Lula
2006: Geraldo Alckmin
2010: José Serra
2014: Aécio Neves
2018: Jair Bolsonaro
PT never won in the wealthiest boroughs in the middle of the city. Even Serra won there in 2002.

In Rio de Janeiro, the right won only in 1994 and 2018. The winners were
1989: Brizola 1st round, Lula 2nd round
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
1998: Lula
2002: Lula
2006: Lula
2010: Dilma Rousseff
2014: Marina Silva 1st round, Dilma Rousseff 2nd round
2018: Jair Bolsonaro

[buritobr]

Who are DEMOCRATS supporting?

They usually go for the center right, but they seem to have forged a strange coalition recently.

DEM merged with PSL to form a new party, UNIÃO BRASIL (Union Brazil)

They will likely just support Moro or the PSDB candidate (Doria), if I had to guess based on ideological alignment. But they might be pragmatic enough to support Bolsonaro who has bigger vote intention so that they can elect more people. Maybe they would even support Lula if they think his election is inevitable, that way they may assure even more people from their party get elected to congress, but that’s a longshot.

DEM was becoming a smaller party after mayor of Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes, representative and former president of the House Rodrigo Maia and the president of the Senate Rodrigo Pacheco left the party and joined the PSD. After these defections, I would not use the words "center-right" to refer to the DEM. I would remove the "center-". The remaining congressmen vote very loyal to Bolsonaro.
Now, DEM merged with former Bolsonaro's party PSL and creates União Brasil. I believe they will support some non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidate. We don't know whom. We don't even know if Sergio Moro and João Doria will run for president.

[buritobr]

Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo for president from 1989 to 2014 because:
1) The % of the low income population in Rio de Janeiro is higher than it is in São Paulo
2) Low income people in Rio de Janeiro used to vote on the left of low income people in São Paulo
3) Middle/upper income people in São Paulo used to vote on the right of middle/upper income people in Rio de Janeiro

In 2018, for the first time in the New Republic, Rio de Janeiro voted on the right of São Paulo for president.
Motive 3 survived. Bolsonaro had higher margin in the middle/upper class boroughs of São Paulo than in the ones of Rio de Janeiro. But 2 was completely removed. Haddad still won some low income boroughs in São Paulo. Bolsonaro won big landslides in all low income boroughs in Rio de Janeiro, he had a higger margin there than he had in the middle income boroughs. So, motive 1 had inverted effect.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll February 3rd-6th 2022

First round
Lula 46%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Sergio Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%

Bolsonaro's evaluation
Good/very good: 22%
Regular: 25%
Bad/very bad: 51%

The results have been stable in the last 4 months