Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

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Most recent polls

MDA May 4th-7th 2022
1st round: Lula 40.6%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 7.1%
runoff: Lula 50.8%, Bolsonaro 36.8%

Quaest May 5th-8th 2022
1st round: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 29%, Ciro Gomes 7%
runoff: Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 34%

PoderData May 8th-10th 2022
1st round: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 5%
runoff: Lula 49%, Bolsonaro 38%

PoderData and MDA are made by cell phone. Quaest interviews people at their homes.

Full Data of Quaest Poll here
https://media-blog.genialinvestimentos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/10224027/genial-nas-eleicoes_pesquisa-para-presidente-2022_resultado-maio-1.pdf

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Quaest Poll - State of São Paulo - May 2022

Governor
1st round (Marcio França running)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 30%, Marcio França (PSB) 17%, Tarcísio de Freitas (Bolsonaro's candidate) 10%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 5%
1st round (Marcio França not running)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 37%, Tarcísio de Freitas 12%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 8%
runoff
Fernando Haddad 38%, Marcio França 32%
Fernando Haddad 45%, Tarcísio de Freitas 23%
Fernando Haddad 44%, Rodrigo Garcia 21%

Senator
Datena 28%, Sergio Moro 16%, Marcio França 11%, Marina Silva 10%, Paulo Skaf 10%, Janaína Paschoal 5%

President
1st round: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 4%
runoff: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 34%

full data here https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6930485628786601984

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Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa said that between Bolsonaro and Lula, he considers that Bolsonaro is the best one. No surprise. He had already endorsed Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of the dictator, and José Kast, the son of the nazi.

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Gregório Duvivier, the brazilian John Oliver, tried to convince potential Ciro Gomes voters that it is very important that Lula wins in the first round. This comedian gave a tatical vote for Ciro Gomes in 2018, because polls showed that he was doing better against Bolsonaro in the runoff than Fernando Haddad, and now he says that potential Ciro Gomes voters should give a tatical vote for Lula
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXsGL6uCoU4

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Quaest Poll May 7th-10th

Minas Gerais

Governor: Zema (incumbent, Bolsonaro's candidate) 41%, Khalil (Lula's candidate) 30%
President: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 5%
President runoff: Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 32%


Quaest Poll May 12th-15th

Rio de Janeiro
Governor: Claudio Castro (incumbent, Bolsonaro's candidate) 26%, Freixo (Lula's candidate) 19%
Senator: Romário (former soccer player, Bolsonaro's candidate) 19%, Crivela 11%, Molon (possible Lula's candidate) 10%
President: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 6%
President runoff: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 38%

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Lula got married today. Social scientist Rosângela Silva (Janja) became his 3rd wife. His 1st one, Maria de Lourdes, died in 1971 while giving birth. The baby didn't survive too. His 2nd one, Marisa Letícia, died of cancer in 2017.
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1527091423585107968

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Exame Ideia Poll May 14th-19th
Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 9%
runoff: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 39%

XP/Ipespe Poll May 16th-18th
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 8%
runoff: Lula 53%, Bolsonaro 34%

After a slight Lula's decline and Bolsonaro's rise from December 2021 to April 2022, the results were stable from April 2022 to May 2022.

Lula is doing much better in Ipespe poll. This poll looks like reliable. In the sample, 46% of the people voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018 and 35% voted for Haddad. These numbers are close to the actual result.
https://static.poder360.com.br/2022/05/pesquisa-xpipespe.pdf

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Today, Jair Bolsonaro met Elon Musk



But I don't believe this meeting will have any impact in the electoral campaign

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The film "Don't Look Up" has lots of fans in Brazil because of the paralell that could be made to the Covid pandemic in Brazil.
The screenplay was written in 2019, before the pandemic. The asteroid was an analogy to the global warming. President Janie Orlean (Meryl Streep) was similar to Donald Trump: a smart person who creates a image of a dumb person in order to have politican gains. She isn't like Jair Bolsonaro because the brazilian president is really dumb.
But still, we have some paralell to the pandemic in Brazil. There was a scene in the film which is almost equal to the real life in Brazil. In the film, scientist Kate Dibiasky (Jennifer Lawrence) became angry during a TV show because many people don't care about the asteroid. In the real life in Brazil, some months before the release of the film, scientist Natalia Pasternak became angry during a TV show because many people don't wear mask. The scene was almost equal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nZFVZnolD8
And since Peter Isherwell (Mark Rylance) is almost an Elon Musk's copy, the real meeting between Bolsonaro and Musk after the film became funny.

I think "Don't Look Up" was more sucessful in Brazil than it was in other countries. I didn't see many comments on this film outside Brazil.

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Datafolha May 24th-25th 2022

Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Since Sergio Moro and João Doria declined to run, they were already excluded


Datafolha is conducted through interviewing people at streets. This kind of pool is better for Lula and worse for Bolsonaro than polls conducted through cell phones.

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Forecast of the red and blue states according to the most recent polls. The gray states are the undefined ones


São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul are gray only because a not very reliable poll showed Bolsonaro leading in these states. Otherwise, they would be red.

https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1531732089070141447

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A bit of comic relief: Not a bad candidate this new one, IMO:

https://twitter.com/inimigo/status/1532752741205958656

Doesn't need to be a third party. The monarchists are pro-Bolsonaro. One member of the Orleans e Bragança family is a congressman in his party.

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Congressman Luiz Philippe de Orléans e Bragança is in PL now
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Philippe_de_Orl%C3%A9ans_e_Bragan%C3%A7a

Yes, I saw it, brazilian government is asking Pedro's heart in order to celebrate the 200 years of the independence

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Quaest Poll, June 2nd-5th 2022

Bolsonaro's administration rating
Positive 25%, Neutral 26%, Negative 47%

First round
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 32%

full data of the poll here https://media-blog.genialinvestimentos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/07233729/genial-nas-eleicoes_pesquisa-para-presidente-2022_resultado-junho.pdf

In June 1994, Lula was leading the polls, but Fernando Henrique Cardoso won in October. He was minister of Finance, and his Real Plan was sucessful in curbing the double digit monthly inflation.
In all other presidential elections since 1989, the candidate who was leading the polls in June won the election. People decide earlier for president.
In the elections for governor and senator sudden shifts in the last weak are usual. But not in presidential elections.

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Datafolha poll May 26th 2022

How do brazilians think in economic and social issues

Abortion
In Brazil, abortion is allowed in only 3 cases: when the pregnancy threats the life of the woman, when there was rape, when the phoetus has no brain. How legal should be the abortion?
32% illegal in all cases
39% keep the current law
18% be legal in more cases
8% be legal in all cases
There was no gender gap. There was age gap: in the group of 16-24 old people, 27% support "legal in more cases" and 15% "legal in all cases"

Gun ownership for civilians
63%: should be forbidden
35%: should be allowed

Poverty
76%: poverty is consequence of lack of oportunities
22%: poverty is consequence of lazyness

Immigration of poor people
76%: good
19%: bad

Crime
56%: crime is consequence of bad people
42%: crime is consequence of lack of oportunities

Death penalty
61%: oppose
36%: support

Drugs
83%: should be forbidden
15%: should be allowed

Homossexuality
79%: should be accepted by all the society
16%: should not be accepted

Believing in god
79%: make people better
21%: doesn't matter

Labor unions
50%: do more politics than support workers
47%: are important to support workers

Criminal teenagers
65%: should be punished like adults
34%: should be reeducated

Government intervention in the economy
50%: support
44%: oppose

Taxes
48%: better to pay high taxes and receive free education and health
46%: better to pay low taxes and pay for private education and health

Government benefits
58%: less government benefits, better life
38%: more government benefits, better life

Should government support big national companies?
71%: yes
25%: no

Labor legislation
56%: protect the workers
37%: harm the business

Who should be the biggest responsible for the investments and the economic growth
72%: the government
24%: the private firms

Full report here http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2022/06/08/p33crfil82idggg024ideo-mai-22.pdf

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One more opinion polled by DATAFOLHA:

Racial quotas in college
50% support
34% oppose

53% of Black Brazilians support it, a larger share in comparison to Mixed Brazilians (52%) and White Brazilians (50%). The younger, higher income and higher education levels of the demographic, the higher the support for this tends to be.

81,4% say racial discrimination should be discussed in schools. 93,7% say Public schools should respect ALL religious practices (which includes Afro-Brazilian religions).

Do you think Lula will win in the first round?

It's possible. Lula increased his supporting base to the right, since he has Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, and to the left, since PSOL is supporting him in the 1st round for the 1st time. The 2 far-left candidates (Sophia Manzano, Vera Lúcia) will probably have very few votes, and I believe some potential Ciro Gomes voters will switch to Lula in the eve in order to avoid the Lula vs Bolsonaro runoff.

But it's not a certainty. In 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, the right performed better than the polls predicted.

I think the most feasible event is Lula winning with between 54-56% in the runoff. But it's not impossible his victory between 50-51% in the 1st round.

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Very interesting videos. The results of the presidential elections from 1989 to 2018 in the center of the city of São Paulo, where the medium/upper income districts are located
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Waprf8IQqZo&t=3s
and in the periphery, where the lower income districts are located
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-fNSCy-wp8&t=299s

We can see the high degree of class polarization in São Paulo city

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What would it take for someone other than Lula or Bolsonaro to win?

Very hard!
The ones who could do it are Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet.
Ciro Gomes is a center-left candidate who is trying to appeal to some right-wing voters because he knows almost all the left will vote for Lula. This is a disaster: he reduced his support in the left, but he won't get support in the right.
Simone Tebet is a center-right candidate, in a MDB-PSDB alliance. She voted for Dilma Rousseff's impeachment, she endorsed Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018. Of course the left won't vote for her. She has 3 months to take votes from Bolsonaro and go to the runoff, but it's hard. Very few people know her.

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Datafolha June 21-22 2022

First round
Lula 47%, Jair Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Janones 2%, Simone Tebet 1%, Marçal 1%, Vera Lúcia 1%

Runoff
Lula 57%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%

Very stable result. Lula went 1 point down in the 1st round and runoff, and Bolsonaro went 1 point up in the 1st round and in the runoff in comparison to May. These movements are inside the margin of error.

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Poll conducted in the Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender Parade in São Paulo showed the preference of the people who attended the event
Lula 86%
Ciro Gomes 2,5%
Jair Bolsonaro 1,6%
It doesn't mean that this is the share of the total LGBT vote. Of course, the LGBT community is much more left-wing than the average population, but not on that level. The people who go to the parade are very political active and very left-wing. There are many heterosexual people in the LGBT parade too, in order to support the issues, and almost all of than are left-wing.

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Datafolha Poll June 21-22 2022 according to the groups

After each group, you can see the percentages of the candidates in the following order: Lula, Jair Bolsonaro, Ciro Gomes, Janones, Simone Tebet

All: 47, 28, 8, 2, 1

Gender
Male: 44, 36, 8, 1, 1
Female: 49, 21, 9, 3, 1

Age
16-24: 54, 24, 10, 2, 0
25-34: 51, 27, 8, 2, 1
35-44: 44, 29, 9, 3, 1
45-59: 44, 31, 7, 2, 2
60-: 45, 28, 9, 0, 2

Instruction
Elementary: 56, 22, 5, 1, 1
High School: 44, 30, 9, 3, 1
College: 37, 32, 14, 1, 3

Income in minimum wages
< 2 MW: 56, 20, 7, 3, 1
2-5 MW: 39, 35, 10, 1, 2
5-10 MW: 29, 44, 12, 0, 4
> 10 MW: 35, 47, 7, 1, 3

Region
Southeast: 43, 29, 9, 2, 2
South: 41, 34, 8, 1, 1
Northeast: 58, 19, 8, 3, 0
Center-West: 38, 40, 7, 1, 2
North: 47, 33, 8, 3, 2

Location
Metro area: 44, 29, 10, 1, 2
Countryside: 49, 28, 7, 2, 1

Color
White: 41, 34, 9, 1, 1
Black: 54, 22, 7, 3, 1
Mixed: 46, 28, 9, 2, 1

Religion (only Lula and Bolsonaro)
Catholic: 50, 24
Evangelic: 35, 40

http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2022/06/24/intencaoxe390nf8enow85ndvoo-junsrwv222.pdf

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Some news

General Braga Netto will be Jair Bolsonaro's running mate in the 2022 presidential election. Most of the army has far-right views, but Braga Netto is the closest general to Bolsonaro, even closer than General Hamilton Mourão, the present vice president.

Marina Silva will run for federal representative in the state of São Paulo, and not in her birth state Acre

Probably in the next days, Simone Tebet's running mate will be announced. She is the most important center-right candidate (and she polls between 1 and 2% now)

Former president Fernando Collor will run for governor of his home state Alagoas. He will probably loose, but his intent is no more than supporting Bolsonaro's presidential campaign. Presidential candidates need strong candidates for state governors, since many voters don't split the ticket. Collor will try to avoid a huge Lula's margin in Alagoas.

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Datafolha Polls

Governor São Paulo
Marcio França running
Fernando Haddad (PT) 28%, Marcio França (PSB) 16%, Tarcísio (REP) 12%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 10%
Marcio França not running
Fernando Haddad (PT) 34%, Tarcísio (REP) 13%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 13%

Governor Minas Gerais
Zema (NOVO) 48%, Khalil (PSD) 21%


President

São Paulo (22% of the Brazilian population)
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Simone Tebet 3%

Minas Gerais (10% of the Brazilian population)
Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Janones 3%, Simone Tebet 2%

Rio de Janeiro (8% of the Brazilian population)
Lula 41%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Simone Tebet 2%

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This Datafolha poll showed also results for the capitals of the 3 most populous states

São Paulo-SP
Lula 50%, Jair Bolsonaro 22%, Ciro Gomes 11%, Simone Tebet 3%

Rio de Janeiro-RJ
Lula 44%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Simone Tebet 3%

Belo Horizonte-MG
Lula 47%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Simone Tebet 2%

If these results become real, São Paulo-SP will vote on the left of the country for the first time

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Quaest Poll, July 2022

Bolsonaro's administration rating
positive 26%, regular 25%, negative 47%

1st round
Lula 45%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro Gomes 6%, Janones 2%, Simone Tebet 2%
runoff
Lula 53%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%

The results are stable. On July 2021 (one year ago), Bolsonaro's rating was positive 26%, regular 27%, negative 45%

full data here https://media-blog.genialinvestimentos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/05190133/genial-nas-eleicoes_pesquisa-para-presidente-2022_resultado-julho.pdf