Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[buritobr]

One question: How can we assess, by the local election results in November, if Bolsonaro is really popular and rallying his base? His party isn't registered yet, right? And he doesn't have no more ties with the PSL, right?. Or should we look at the results for the junior parties in his coaltion: PSD, PSC, PP and others?

Bolsonaro has no party, but most of the PSL candidates are his allies yet. In São Paulo, you should look the results of Celso Russomano. In Rio de Janeiro, you should look the results of Marcelo Crivella. Both are members of "Republicanos", a party of one of the biggest evangelic church, which is Bolsonaro's ally. Other parties that are Bolsonaro's allies are PSD, PSC, PP, as you mentioned, and NOVO, Patriota and Republicanos.

[buritobr]

Ibope Poll September 20th
Evaluation of Bolsonaro administration
40% good, very good
29% regular
29% bad, very bad

Well this seems like a major improvement for Bolsonaro, no?

Yes, major improvement. The number of cases and deaths are declining, so, the pandemic is not the most important issue anymore. And many low-income people became satisfied with the R$600 monthly check during the pandemic. They don't know that this value was proposed by the opposition.

[buritobr]

So is PSOL (lol) going to go anywhere in the upcoming federal election?

Also, can any Brazilian poster please tell me the difference between PSB, PMDB, and the other marginal , officially social democratic parties? I’m confused as to how such a fractured environment upon third way blairite parties exists. Also the green parties pls

The strongest base of PSOL is Rio de Janeiro, but representative Marcelo Freixo, who lost in the runoff agianst Crivella in 2016, decided not to run. He has a problem: high floor and low ceiling. He considered that he would go to the runoff easily, but the probabily to loose to Crivella in a runoff is very high. Crivella's aproval rate is low, but the rejection to Freixo is big. Many people living in poor neighborhoods of the city is evangelic and dislike Freixo because he supports cannabis legalization and the teaching of issues related to LGBT at schools. PSOL has a not so famous candidate in 2020: Renata Souza. The strongest candidates in Rio de Janeiro are Marcelo Crivella, Eduardo Paes, Martha Rocha and Benedita da Silva.
Guilherme Boulos, who ran for president in 2018, is polling well in São Paulo. But his probability to win is low.
PSOL has a good chance to win the city of Belém-PA. Edmílsion is the candidate and he was already the mayor when his party was PT.

[buritobr]

Ibope Poll September 20th
Evaluation of Bolsonaro administration
40% good, very good
29% regular
29% bad, very bad

Well this seems like a major improvement for Bolsonaro, no?

Certainly from earlier this year when the virus was at peak intensity.

Last Ibope poll was conducted in December 2019, before the pandemic. It showed 29% good/very good. Ibope doesn't interview people using cell phones. Ibope visits people in their homes. That's why they conducted no polls during the peak of the pandemic. Other polls, which used cell phones, showed that Bolsonaro lost popularity during the early months of the pandemic, and then recovery at higher levels than before the pandemic.

[buritobr]

Judge Celso de Mello will retire because he reached 75, so, in this age, there is the compulsory retire (actually, he decided to retire one month before the deadline). He was one of the most critic to Bolsonaro. Now, Bolsonaro has the opportunity to appoint a judge to the Supreme Court. He has already promised to his base a "terrivelmente evangelico" judge. The name needs an approval of the Senate.

[buritobr]

Brazil was mentioned by Biden in the debate. Not in the best way.
Brazil is not doing well in preserving the rain forest.

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro chose federal judge Kassio Nunes to occupy Celso Mello's place in the Supreme Court. Many supporters and opponents of Bolsonaro though he would appoint a far-right name. But it didn't happen. Maybe, because Bolsonaro perceived that the Senate would not approve a far-right judge.

[buritobr]

Father of the new governor of the state of Santa Catarina is a history teacher who supports neonazi ideas and holocaust denial
Daniela Reinehr was the vice governor of Santa Catarina and became the governor after governor Carlos Moises was impeached. During the inauguration, she was asked by the media about her father's ideas. She just answered that she supports free speech and that she lives in harmony in her family despite differences of ideas. She didn't condem her father's ideas.

Santa Catarina is located in the south of Brazil and is the state which has the biggest population with german ancestry. They are descendants of german immigrants who came to Brazil in the late 19th century and early 20th century. Most of the germans in Santa Catarina are not like germans in Germany in the 21st century. In the cities of Blumenau and Pomerode, most important german colonies in Brazil, Bolsonaro had more than 80% of the votes in the runoff in 2018, while german media has a very negative view on Bolsonaro (of course!). I am not saying that these germans in the south of Brazil are neonazi, but in the average, they are much more conservative than the germans in Germany.
Not all german brazilians are reactionar. The name of the president of the Workers Party (PT) is Gleisi Hoffman. She is from Paraná, another state in the south of Brazil.

[buritobr]

Glenn Grennwald is not in the Intercept Brasil anymore because this newspaper refused to publish an article against Hunter Biden

[buritobr]

Usually, this result would not make a difference in Brazil. Democratic US presidents have very good relations with right-wing governments in Latin America. But now, there is a different situation in Brazil. We don't have a government on the right. We have a government on the far-right. Bolsonaro lost a very close friend. Only Netanyahu, Orban and Morawiecki remain.
Probably, the elites will increase the pressure on Bolsonaro to behave like a generic right-wing president, like Sebastian Piñera, Lacalle Pou, Mario Benitez, Ivan Duque and Martin Vizcarra. The alt-right wing in Bolsonaro's administration (Ernesto Araújo, Ricardo Sales and Damares) will become more isolated in the world. We still don't know if Bolsonaro will adapt to this new scenario or if he will like to stay isolated.

[buritobr]

Yes, there is a paralell to Jimmy Carter. He increased the pressure on general Ernesto Geisel in order to increase political openness.

[buritobr]

Ernesto Geisel > Jair Bolsonaro
Geisel launched the 2nd national development plan in order to keep the high GDP growth after the 1973 oil shock. Most of the investment of this plan was conducted by state owned enterprises. Geisel recognized PR China and not Taiwan as the true China. Geisel was in the same side of Fidel Castro in the civil war in Angola: he recognized the MPLA government. Geisel was closer to the arabs than Israel in the Middle East conflict. Geisel made an agreement with FR Germany in order to import technology to build the Angra nuclear power plant. Geisel tried to increase trade with Japan, European Community and even the eastern european communist bloc in order to become more independent of the USA.
During the disagreement between Jimmy Carter and Ernesto Geisel, the brazilian left didn't know which side to choose. On one side, Jimmy Carter was trying to push the end of the dictatorship. On the other side, Geisel was trying to have a more nationalist approach to the economy and to the foreign policy.
Bolsonaro is very different. He supports Chicago economics. He is an underdog in foreign policy. He will not appeal to anti-american leftists if Biden criticizes his administration.

[buritobr]

On November 19th, a black man was killed in a Carrefour supermarket in Porto Alegre after he was punched by two guards from a private security firm that works for the supermarket. A discussion inside the supermarket might have started the fight. Carrefour supermarkets in Brazil had already previous problem related to private guards using to much violence against people who tried to steal things inside the supermarket.

It was the eve of the "Black Conscience Day", the anniversary of the execution of Zumbi dos Palmares, which took place at November 20th 1695. Zumbi was the leader of "Quilombo dos Palmares", a community of fugitive slaves. Zumbi became a symbol of the fight for racial justice.

[buritobr]

Following Joe Biden / Kamala Harris example, I think that there will be a Ciro Gomes / Marina Silva ticket in the presidential election of 2022. He is an old moderate white man, who has a long experience in politics. She is a moderate black woman.

[buritobr]

Ciro Gomes was speaking as if PT and Bolsonaro were equal evils: this is not very smart for someone who wants the support of PT voters. I agree with Ciro Gomes that a project for national development needs a broad supporting alliance which includes not only left-wing parties. But unlike Ciro, I think this alliance should not exclude PT.
This week, Ciro Gomes told that he doesn't want PT support and that he was looking for DEM and PSD to join PDT and PSB in his coalition. But I don't believe that the neoliberal DEM and PSD would support someone who propose a strong role for the state in the economic development.

[buritobr]

Scenario for 2022

Far-right: Bolsonaro, of course. We still don't know if he will join Progressistas, Republicanos or PSL. I also include Amoedo in the group of far-right, but Novo did not well in the municipal elections in 2020.

Center-right: Possible names are João Doria (governor of São Paulo), Eduardo Leite (governor of Rio Grande do Sul), ACM Neto (mayor of Salvador), Rodrigo Maia (president of the House), Sérgio Moro (former judge and Bolsonaro's Minister of Justice) and Luciano Huck (TV star). The governor of São Paulo is always a natural candidate, since São Paulo has the biggest GDP and 22% of the country's population. But Doria has not high approval rate. Luciano Huck had friendship in the past with not so good people (Aécio Neves, Sergio Cabral, Sergio Moro, Eike Batista, Joesley Batista, Ricardo Electro and Robinho). He might become vulnerable in a campaign. Moro used to have support from the far-right, but this group considers him a betrayor.

PDT/PSB/Rede: I believe there will be a Ciro Gomes / Marina Silva ticket, although I don't believe they will be sucessful (Red Velvet and I explained why).

PT/PCdoB: Fernando Haddad (former mayor of São Paulo), Jacques Wagner (senator) or Flávio Dino (governor of Maranhão). Even if Lula have all his rights back, I don't belive he will try again, since he is very old and he knows that half of the population doesn't like him.

PSOL: No other name than Guilherme Boulos was mentioned until now. We don't know if Boulos will run again or if PSOL will make an alliance with PT in the 1st round

[buritobr]

Scenario for 2022

Far-right: Bolsonaro, of course. We still don't know if he will join Progressistas, Republicanos or PSL. I also include Amoedo in the group of far-right, but Novo did not well in the municipal elections in 2020.

Center-right: Possible names are João Doria (governor of São Paulo), Eduardo Leite (governor of Rio Grande do Sul), ACM Neto (mayor of Salvador), Rodrigo Maia (president of the House), Sérgio Moro (former judge and Bolsonaro's Minister of Justice) and Luciano Huck (TV star). The governor of São Paulo is always a natural candidate, since São Paulo has the biggest GDP and 22% of the country's population. But Doria has not high approval rate. Luciano Huck had friendship in the past with not so good people (Aécio Neves, Sergio Cabral, Sergio Moro, Eike Batista, Joesley Batista, Ricardo Electro and Robinho). He might become vulnerable in a campaign. Moro used to have support from the far-right, but this group considers him a betrayor.

PDT/PSB/Rede: I believe there will be a Ciro Gomes / Marina Silva ticket, although I don't believe they will be sucessful (Red Velvet and I explained why).

PT/PCdoB: Fernando Haddad (former mayor of São Paulo), Jacques Wagner (senator) or Flávio Dino (governor of Maranhão). Even if Lula have all his rights back, I don't belive he will try again, since he is very old and he knows that half of the population doesn't like him.

PSOL: No other name than Guilherme Boulos was mentioned until now. We don't know if Boulos will run again or if PSOL will make an alliance with PT in the 1st round

To what degree has the Brazilian mainstream center-right acclimated itself to Bolsonaro? If Bolsonaro is the most popular right-wing politician in the country (and assuming roughly 50/50 approval ratings, it means he has support from most rightists), would they even run a separate candidate?

Old PSDB leaders consider PT and Bolsonaro equal evils. Acutally, I think that in private they consider Bolsonaro worse, but they don't demonstrate this view in public, because their party looks for similar voters. New PSDB leaders have better relation with Bolsonaro.
It is obvious that the non-Bolsonaro right will have its own candidate. PSDB and DEM leaders want to keep their parties alive. People who consider Bolsonaro good or very good is always between 30% and 40%, no more than this. But the left has a 30% ceiling. There is a large share of the Brazilian population who dislike both the left and Bolsonaro. The non-Bolsonaro right was the biggest winner of the 2020 municipal election.
If the 2022 presidential election has only one left-wing candidate and only one non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidate, it will be possible to keep Bolsonaro out of the runoff. But it is very hard for the parties to reach this agreement.

[buritobr]

Only bad news in Brazil!
Most recent one: a male representative, who was walking behind a female representative, put his hands on her breasts in the São Paulo State Assembly. This is harassment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fzds3PkzsBY

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro is playing a double game about vacines

The Ministry of Health will purchase the vacines produced in São Paulo by the chinese laboratory Sinovac because Bolsonaro needs to be accepted by the anti-left population in Brazil which is ~60% of the population. And sane people, no matter if is left, right or center, want to have the vacine.

On the other hand, Bolsonaro keeps the speech promoting a negative view on the Sinovac vacine to his fanatic followers, who are ~20% of the population. They believe everything coming from the PR China is evil.

[buritobr]

Yes. Pfizer is very expensive and Brazil has no enough quantity of -70C freezers in order to keep the Pfizer vacines.

Even though, Brazil should have bough and should have tried to purchase the freezers. The losses related to the delay of the vacines are much higher than the price of Pfizer.

[buritobr]

I hope Crivela and his fellows get investigated and judged, but the arest was not necessary. It is possible to arest someone before the sentence if someone is too dangerous outside the jail. If there is the danger to disturb the investigation, to harm the collection of evidence, for example. This doesn't seem to be the case of Crivela. The arest looked like a theater.

[buritobr]

When they were candidates, Lula and Dilma didn't endorse the legalization of abortion because they didn't want to loose support of the poor religious people. Heloísa Helena doesn't support legal abortion.

Yesterday, president of PT Gleisi Hoffman and president of PSOL Juliano Medeiros sent congratulations for Argentina because of the legalization of abortion. Some progress is going on. Probably, in the next years, there will be no room for anti-abortion left anymore.

[buritobr]

An artist built a huge vagina in a natural landscape in the rural area of the state of Pernambuco. This vagina has a 33 meter length, 16 meter width and 6 meter depth https://www.metropoles.com/entretenimento/artista-faz-vagina-de-33-metros-em-pernambuco-veja-diva-de-juliana-notari

[buritobr]

After the tests, the Coronavac vaccine, produced in a partnership between chinese laboratory Sinovac and Butantan (research institute in the University of São Paulo) reached a 78% efficacy. Butantan requested the authorization of Anvisa (Brazilian FDA). Fiocruz (another research institute) is producing the Oxfort AstraZeneca and also requested the authorization of Anvisa.
Maybe, the vaccination will start in the end of January.

[buritobr]

Ford Motors will shut all the 3 factories in Brazil.
Some of the explanation is the reestructuring of the firm since the world demand for its vehicles is declining.
But Ford will keep the factories in Argentina and Uruguay.