Gore overperformed in Florida (user search)
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  Gore overperformed in Florida (search mode)
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Author Topic: Gore overperformed in Florida  (Read 1560 times)
buritobr
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« on: March 05, 2015, 08:03:13 PM »

If we look to the difference between the Florida margin and the national margin, we see that after 1976, Florida was never less Republican than it was in 2000, neither before, nor after. But it was not enough...

Difference between Florida margin and national margin
1976: D 3.22%
1980: R 7.28%
1984: R 12.44%
1988: R 14.63%
1992: R 7.45%
1996: R 2.82%
2000: R 0.53%
2004: R 2.55%
2008: R 4.45%
2012: R 2.98%

I don't know why.
There is the theory proposed by the far right that many Panhandle voters, who are in other time zone, didn't vote after the state was called to Al Gore.

I compared the variation of the turnout in Santa Rosa County, in the Panhandle, and in Miami, in the South of the state.

Number of voters

Santa Rosa
2000: 50,402
2004: 67,307
growth: 33.5%

Miami
2000: 625,552
2004: 774,726
growth: 23.8%

Looking at these numbers, we see that in a county in Panhandle, we can see lower turnout in 2000.
However, I still do not believe in this theory. It is very strange that many people decided to vote in the last hour, heard the news that the state was called to Gore, and decided not to vote.
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buritobr
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Posts: 3,709


« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2015, 07:56:19 PM »

Well, you had Lieberman; and Gore spent practically his entire campaign in the state.  Ironic, as a couple of visits to his home state, West Virginia, or New Hampshire might have sealed the deal for him.  Oh well.  He ran a spectacularly crappy campaign. 

I remember that in September 2000 (or October), the media told that Bush and Gore would fight for the small states, because among the big states, it was certain that Gore would carry New York and California, and Bush would carry Texas and Florida. But after that, Gore almost won Florida.

In the recent elections, only in 2000 Ohio was more Republican than Florida. Maybe, Gore should have visited Ohio more times.
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buritobr
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Posts: 3,709


« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2015, 07:57:46 PM »

No. He didn't overperform.  The demographic and population movements in FL favor Democrats and has been since the late 80s.

But after 2000, the Republican gap between Florida and the USA became bigger again, as I showed in the beggining of the topic.
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