Gore overperformed in Florida

[buritobr]

If we look to the difference between the Florida margin and the national margin, we see that after 1976, Florida was never less Republican than it was in 2000, neither before, nor after. But it was not enough...

Difference between Florida margin and national margin
1976: D 3.22%
1980: R 7.28%
1984: R 12.44%
1988: R 14.63%
1992: R 7.45%
1996: R 2.82%
2000: R 0.53%
2004: R 2.55%
2008: R 4.45%
2012: R 2.98%

I don't know why.
There is the theory proposed by the far right that many Panhandle voters, who are in other time zone, didn't vote after the state was called to Al Gore.

I compared the variation of the turnout in Santa Rosa County, in the Panhandle, and in Miami, in the South of the state.

Number of voters

Santa Rosa
2000: 50,402
2004: 67,307
growth: 33.5%

Miami
2000: 625,552
2004: 774,726
growth: 23.8%

Looking at these numbers, we see that in a county in Panhandle, we can see lower turnout in 2000.
However, I still do not believe in this theory. It is very strange that many people decided to vote in the last hour, heard the news that the state was called to Gore, and decided not to vote.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Well, you had Lieberman; and Gore spent practically his entire campaign in the state.  Ironic, as a couple of visits to his home state, West Virginia, or New Hampshire might have sealed the deal for him.  Oh well.  He ran a spectacularly crappy campaign. 

[sg0508]

No. He didn't overperform.  The demographic and population movements in FL favor Democrats and has been since the late 80s.

[136or142]

I don't know why.
There is the theory proposed by the far right that many Panhandle voters, who are in other time zone, didn't vote after the state was called to Al Gore.

I compared the variation of the turnout in Santa Rosa County, in the Panhandle, and in Miami, in the South of the state.


Looking at these numbers, we see that in a county in Panhandle, we can see lower turnout in 2000.
However, I still do not believe in this theory. It is very strange that many people decided to vote in the last hour, heard the news that the state was called to Gore, and decided not to vote.

There is as much truth this 'theory' as there is to the George H W Bush would have beaten Clinton if not for Perot.

[buritobr]

Well, you had Lieberman; and Gore spent practically his entire campaign in the state.  Ironic, as a couple of visits to his home state, West Virginia, or New Hampshire might have sealed the deal for him.  Oh well.  He ran a spectacularly crappy campaign. 

I remember that in September 2000 (or October), the media told that Bush and Gore would fight for the small states, because among the big states, it was certain that Gore would carry New York and California, and Bush would carry Texas and Florida. But after that, Gore almost won Florida.

In the recent elections, only in 2000 Ohio was more Republican than Florida. Maybe, Gore should have visited Ohio more times.

[buritobr]

No. He didn't overperform.  The demographic and population movements in FL favor Democrats and has been since the late 80s.

But after 2000, the Republican gap between Florida and the USA became bigger again, as I showed in the beggining of the topic.

[nclib]

Someone posted in another thread that Palm Beach and Broward Counties gave Gore the highest % of any Democrat of the 1964-2012 elections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Comparing it the national average is misleading given how horrible the GOP did in 1996 and 2008.

GOP did not do that bad in 1996 as they made gains in the Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Latino vote came in stronger than expected for Gore. Although, Elian Gonzalez didnt help matters, there were a pool of younger Latinos who still supported Gore due to Prez Clinton.

[SingingAnalyst]

If we look to the difference between the Florida margin and the national margin, we see that after 1976, Florida was never less Republican than it was in 2000, neither before, nor after. But it was not enough...

Difference between Florida margin and national margin
1976: D 3.22%
1980: R 7.28%
1984: R 12.44%
1988: R 14.63%
1992: R 7.45%
1996: R 2.82%
2000: R 0.53%
2004: R 2.55%
2008: R 4.45%
2012: R 2.98%

I don't know why.
There is the theory proposed by the far right that many Panhandle voters, who are in other time zone, didn't vote after the state was called to Al Gore.

I compared the variation of the turnout in Santa Rosa County, in the Panhandle, and in Miami, in the South of the state.

Number of voters

Santa Rosa
2000: 50,402
2004: 67,307
growth: 33.5%

Miami
2000: 625,552
2004: 774,726
growth: 23.8%

Looking at these numbers, we see that in a county in Panhandle, we can see lower turnout in 2000.
However, I still do not believe in this theory. It is very strange that many people decided to vote in the last hour, heard the news that the state was called to Gore, and decided not to vote.

Your statistics seem to support the panhandle central time theory. Also the first Jewish VP nominee ever may have energized older Jews in particular, many of whom live in Florida (and more than a few of whom I am convinced accidentally voted for Buchanan).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Florida was the only state that Gore outspent Bush in. Gore campaigned there for something like 48 hours nonstop with no sleep before election day. Bush took the state for granted, and had to rely on his brother stealing it.

Gore did make one critical mistake though. He should have chosen Bob Graham to be his running mate.