UK 'Brexit' Referendum on the EU

[ChrisDR68]

My prediction is the the UK will vote to remain in the EU by 55-45%.

That said with Boris coming out in favour of Brexit this could make for a nail biting campaign and results night

[ChrisDR68]

Heard Ken Clarke say on the news today that those who are in favour in the UK leaving the EU don't know what they're doing.

Ken, that's pathetic, patronising and wrong

[ChrisDR68]

I still think it'll be 55-45% in favour of remain.

Cameron's ruthless campaign designed to play on people's fear of what might happen to the UK economy if there is a Brexit will win the day (unfortunately).

What the majority of Conservative Party members who are Eurosceptic make of their leader and chancellor's role in using every trick in the book to make the UK stay in the hated EU is anyone's guess.

[ChrisDR68]

Surely many voters will realize that a Brexit could precipitate a new, possibly successful push for Scottish independence, which must affect their eventual decision.

Not with the price of oil being low.

They'd be bankrupt in no time.

[ChrisDR68]

Remain will win based on the notoriously cautious (some would say spineless) attitude of the British electorate. Both of the previous UK-wide referendums result in a two-to-one victory for the status quo; it took a world war to elect a majority socialist government, it took a Winter of Discontent to elect a firmly right-wing government etc.

The only thing that could stop a remain vote from winning is this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36090188

I wasn't even aware there was a massive Italian banking crisis going on at the moment until I read that article.

Imagine how much affect that would have on this referendum if a new Euro crisis erupted in the early part of June?

The last bit made me chuckle:

It is an indication that while the EU may not be very good at scoring goals, it does find a way to keep the ball in the air.

What would bring it crashing down would be if the political tensions between north and south grew so great that the players lost the will to fight gravity.

[ChrisDR68]

In a binary referendum like the one we're having at the moment each side will in effect be coalitions of different motivations. This is my reading of each side:

Bremain coalition

1. Those that believe a federal European superstate is a good idea and that the UK should be subsumed within such a creation (people who are probably in this camp are journalist Polly Toynbee, Tories Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine and Labour's Tony Blair (who always wanted the UK to adopt the Euro)).

2. Those that think the superstate is inevitable and that the UK may as well stay in the EU to try to influence it as much as possible into the British way of thinking. That's probably the bulk of pro-EU Conservatives and most Labour MP's too with the leader of the Remain campaign Alan Johnson likely to be a member.

3. The next group are those that don't have an opinion on whether the Eurozone is heading towards a superstate or not (or who simply don't believe that is what is happening) but worry that a Brexit may damage the UK economy leading to a recession. They also worry about the UK being isolated in the world. This is the group that David Cameron and Lynton Crosby believe will win the campaign for them because it's likely to include a lot of the current don't knows.


Brexit coalition

1. The xenophobic element who dislikes Johnny Foreigner. These are likely to be older people who mainly live in southern England and are staunch Conservative voters.

2. Those that believe immigration is the number one issue in this referendum and believe that leaving the EU will bring back control to the numbers of people coming into this country. Michael Gove's idea of an Australian style points system will strongly appeal to this group (including my mate from work who I play golf with who ironically enough was born in Hong Kong and only came over here when he was 7 ).

3. The third group are the ones that believe national sovereignty is the number one issue of this referendum. They are strongly against the UK becoming absorbed into a European superstate (or even being heavily involved in the way it operates while staying outside it's core). Like me they may have originally been a supporter of the UK becoming a member of the EEC but have turned against it when it's federalising tendency became clear in the late 1980's (Norman Tebbit, Frank Field and David Owen are likely to be in this group).

This is the group that I belong to.

 

 

[ChrisDR68]

I'd add a fourth group to the Brexit coalition:

Those on the radical left who see the EU as a neoliberal institution. George Galloway, Dave Nellist and Tommy Sheridan are in this group, as was the late Tony Benn (though his nationalist instincts played a role in it for him too). Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell may also, privately, be in this group too, along with Kate Hoey and Frank Field - who are not secret about their Euroscepticsm but may be secret radical lefties (Hoey has nominated McDonnell for the leadership and Field has nominated both McDonnell and Corbyn).

Also the 'anti-Johnny Foreigner' types would also include middle-aged Northeners who voted UKIP in 2015.

Yes ok fair enough

What do you make of Corbyn's positioning in this referendum and do you think had he followed his conscience and campaigned for the Brexit side would that have made the crucial difference in determining it's outcome?

[ChrisDR68]

I wonder if Remain wins there will be a big bounce in the opinion polls for UKIP similar to what happened to the SNP in Scotland following the independence referendum?

Frank Field who is the MP in the neighbouring constituency to mine certainly thinks it's a possibility:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/26/corbyn-must-address-working-class-eu-concerns-warns-field

It would be interesting to know where he gets the figure of 40% of Labour voters being Eurosceptic.