Predict Pennsylvania

[J. J.]

Obama 1.5 +/- 3.5.  Welcome to FL 2000. 

[J. J.]

O +5 right now....

O+8 when JJ reports astronomical turnout at his polling place at 3:00pm ET.

If I do.  The key number is 170.

[J. J.]

Whats the weather look like for Philly?

Clear and mid 60's.  Weather looks good across the state.

Edit:  There might be a coastal storm.

[J. J.]

Weather update:  40% chance of AM rain with a 70% chance of evening rain on Election Day.  It's a coastal storm, moving north, so if will affect the Phila region first.

[J. J.]

Weather update:  40% chance of AM rain with a 70% chance of evening rain on Election Day.  It's a coastal storm, moving north, so if will affect the Phila region first.

Who does this benefit?

Most black voters in the city vote early, but a few don't.  Rain later in the day could suppress in the heavily black areas slightly.

[J. J.]

At what things are looking like most blacks would stand through a meteor storm to vote for Obama.

You know, I just don't know.  The last time I saw this many signs was 2000, and turnout was terrible.  I saw few in 2004, and turnout was great.  I cannot call it.

[J. J.]

At what things are looking like most blacks would stand through a meteor storm to vote for Obama.

Weather doesn't affect base voters.

Not the real base, those folks that voted in every election for the last 25 years, but new voters, and those that just come out for "big" elections, possibly.  There are these new voters and I have no idea what they'll be up to.

[J. J.]

Well, that increases my support of Obama a little bit.

Until you get your electric bill.

[J. J.]

Well, that increases my support of Obama a little bit.

Until you get your electric bill.

I don't pay for utilities here at college, and back home all of our power is hydro-electric.

It will be reflected in your tuition and the general price of power will drive up the price from all sources.

[J. J.]

Weather update:  40% chance of AM rain with a 70% chance of evening rain on Election Day.  It's a coastal storm, moving north, so if will affect the Phila region first.

Who does this benefit?

Most black voters in the city vote early, but a few don't.  Rain later in the day could suppress in the heavily black areas slightly.

But it would also suppress white populations who typically vote after work... especially in an election that is all but over.

If they don't turn out in record numbers early, black people.