Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Do the terms "0-3 point race" and "weekends" ring a bell to anyone?

[J. J.]

Do the terms "0-3 point race" and "weekends" ring a bell to anyone?

do the terms "arrogant" and "broken record" ring a bell to anyone?

I'm not too sure about "arrogant," basically, because I was quoting your post, IIRC, just expanding the margin either way. 

As for "broken record," some skipping, but not entirely broken.  There was a bit of tightening last week, but not sure it's there this week. It might be ranging up to 1-4 or 2-5 points.

[J. J.]

Probably close to +2 Obama, same as last week.

[J. J.]

Friday, July 25, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

I think today is Monday, July 28.    They are starting to run together.

I would be worried about a weekend sample showing a drop for Obama.  We could see a very big one tomorrow (that really won't mean a heck of a lot).

[J. J.]

Wednesday and Thursday will be the key to Gallup.

[J. J.]

Once the weekend polling leaves the sample, it will be back to a 2-3 point race, where the race is right now.

And if not

I prefer to see the numbers after the weekend numbers are out.  I actually thing Obama might have improved very slightly.

[J. J.]

Wednesday, July 30, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 27-29.

The percentage of voters favoring Obama for president swelled from 45% in July 21-23 tracking, conducted at the outset of Obama's weeklong visit to Europe and the Middle East, to 49% in July 24-26 interviewing conducted at the height of publicity surrounding the tour. At the same time, McCain's support ebbed from 43% to 40%, and the percentage of undecided voters fell from 7% to 4%.

With Obama now back on U.S. soil and filling less of the nightly news, voter preferences have nearly completely reverted to their pre-trip levels.

And this is still with the weekend numbers partially included.

[J. J.]

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Obama is walking away with this one.

why do you find this entertaining or humorous?  there are a few partisans who claim obama is going to win easy.  there are a few other more objective analysts who agree.  you yourself claim that summer polling is pretty crummy.  with all that said, you persist each time a poll shows the race tight or tightening to sarcastically comment as if 90% of the board were regularly claiming this won't be a close race.

I think we've had a few here that have said that, at some point.  I've been saying close, and factor out the weekend bump.  Now I'm wondering if there is a mid week bump.

[J. J.]

a few, maybe, but if you're going to make the same sarcastic comment over and over and over and over, you better be calling out more than a few people.

We've seen a lot of puffery about Obama, even down to "Obama leading" in several states where his numbers were, in fact, steadily dropping.  It's still happening.

Now, I'm 100% in favor of noting this a close race, with Obama having an edge at this point, but it is not solid.

[J. J.]

Just curious dave, how much does the DNC pay you to spout their talking points on this site?

That's not a talking point, it's a competely neutral assessment and in line with previous voting patterns. Republican voting increases with education until you get to graduate school, and then it drops.

That might be job related.

[J. J.]

This does not include the weekend numbers, but this is NOT good news for Obama, considering that this was real attempt to breakout.

[J. J.]

Either today or tomorrow. we should see the "weekend bump" for Obama, and at some point a lead of 3-4 points.  Anything below that, Obama suffering some moderate to major erosion.

[J. J.]

This National numbers don't match up with the state numbers.... I hate summer time.

At this stage, the state numbers might be following the national numbers.

Right now, I'm looking at broad trends.  After the conventions, I'll start focusing on the state polls.

[J. J.]

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

I'll wait until tomorrow, but this might be the start of bad news for Obama.

[J. J.]

We could see a trend to McCain (about where Obama was in early to mid July).  We won't know until tomorrow at the earliest (probably not until Wednesday or Thursday).  Obama may decide it's time to roll out the VP candidate.

[J. J.]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

[J. J.]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Midweek = Wednesday Right?

Thursday is better.  This includes two weekend numbers.  Obama might drop with just Sunday numbers included, but Thursday is likely for the lead.

[J. J.]

Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

Yes, that average was based on polling from Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Tomorrow, Friday's numbers will drop off and Mondays will pop in.  If Obama is eroding, we see this drop back a bit, but we won't see anything without the weekend until Thursday.

The VP announcement may change that dynamic.

[J. J.]

Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

Yes, that average was based on polling from Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Tomorrow, Friday's numbers will drop off and Mondays will pop in.  If Obama is eroding, we see this drop back a bit, but we won't see anything without the weekend until Thursday.

The VP announcement may change that dynamic.

So far, no indication of weakening, but Monday might just have been less damaging than Friday... Right?

Possibly, though there might have been a good Obama sample in Sunday's  (or even Saturday's poll).  Saturday's numbers will drop out tomorrow and Sunday's numbers will drop out on Thursday.

[J. J.]

Wednesday - August 6, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Weekend numbers dropping out.

[J. J.]

And yet:

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Not happening.

We don't have the mid week numbers yet.  Sunday is still in the sample.

My only real question is if Obama gets a weekend bump or if McCain gets a mid-week bump.

[J. J.]

My only real question is if Obama gets a weekend bump or if McCain gets a mid-week bump.

Or if Obama suffers a mid-week sag, or if McCain suffers a weekend sag.

What is truth in this situation?

Bingo.  I fully expect McCain to pop up ahead on Thursday or Friday, but I don't expect him to be on Monday.

I think the "truth in this situation," is Obama eroded, maybe 3-4 points and the candidate's numbers will seem to be slow dancing around the others.  The "minuet period" of the campaign?

[J. J.]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

She doesn't have a shot, unless something comes out on Obama between now and the nomination (and it would have to be bad).  She does have a very good shot of destroying the convention at this point.

[J. J.]

Obama will probably drop, but pick it up over the weekend.  He has from Monday.

[J. J.]

Obama should bounce with tomorrow's numbers.