Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

This thing is going to settle back into a modest Obama lead that's only going to get worse for McCain over the course of the debates. 

More than a bit of wishful thinking. 

[J. J.]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

[J. J.]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

[J. J.]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

JJ looks like 538 was right and you were wrong.   But we shall keep observing.

He should have; he normally gets a weekend bounce. 

[J. J.]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

JJ looks like 538 was right and you were wrong.   But we shall keep observing.

He should have; he normally gets a weekend bounce. 

So you expect movement for Mccain in a day or two eh? We will see.

I'm saying, if there isn't, the race is tightening.  McCain normally gets a mid week bounce; Obama normally gets a weekend bounce.

[J. J.]

LOL. But how will JJ spin this one?

"Obama should be up at least 5 points. This is not good news for Obama."



Because in J.J.'s world, nothing is ever bad for McCain.

No it's a good result for Obama.  In theory, McCain should be going up due to the mid week bounce.  If he just holds, it meant the race was tightening.  Now, if McCain doesn't pick up over the next three days, it is great news for Obama.

[J. J.]

LOL. But how will JJ spin this one?

"Obama should be up at least 5 points. This is not good news for Obama."



Because in J.J.'s world, nothing is ever bad for McCain.

No it's a good result for Obama.  In theory, McCain should be going up due to the mid week bounce.  If he just holds, it meant the race was tightening.  Now, if McCain doesn't pick up over the next three days, it is great news for Obama.

OR the midweek bounce was a mirage based on not enough data and this is just noise in the data and it's been close all along.
OR McCain had a nice bounce for a couple weeks and that bounce has faded and we are going back to the basic race which is slight lean obama.
OR there's a bad high Obama sample for yesterday mucking up the numbers.

If there is no shift to Obama, McCain's numbers should go up, because of the midweek bounce.    If this is a bad sample, it should drop out by Saturday. 

[J. J.]

Probably a real shift to Obama of 3-5 points.

[J. J.]

The scales have tipped in our favor. If I were to use a baseball analogy, we just scored a touchdown in the 7th inning.

Try in the 5th, with the other side getting the same inning at bat.

Obama has a problem policy wise; he favors a capital gains tax increase that hurts investment.

[J. J.]

The scales have tipped in our favor. If I were to use a baseball analogy, we just scored a touchdown in the 7th inning.

Try in the 5th, with the other side getting the same inning at bat.

Obama has a problem policy wise; he favors a capital gains tax increase that hurts investment.

American voters don't know that means. They probably don't even know about it.

Enough do, because they pay it.

[J. J.]

And the Dow is off by less than 100 points for the week.

[J. J.]

Last three nights estimated Gallup results(most recent first):

Obama +3.0%
Obama +3.4%
Obama +8.6%

Thus Obama's best night will fall off the tracker, so McCain should gain a point or 2 tomorrow.

It might have been a bad sample.

[J. J.]

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Is it at least comortable underneath that rock?

Serious answer is the market, which has cooled (did it end the week up?).

[J. J.]

Remember that there will be a 1 in 20 sample every three weeks statistically, and between the two "main" tracking polls that means one every 10 days, or a week and a half.

Or, McCain tends to go up in Gallup on week days, which I've been saying for about two months.

[J. J.]

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)

Obama probably up by 4-5.

[J. J.]

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

[J. J.]

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Gore was never ahead for even a whole week, just sporadically. Bush led 95% of the time, and then Gore surged at the last minute.

lmao, Bush held a steady lead on Gore for most of the campaign.  the only times Gore was even or ahead came right after the DNC and in the final week, aided by the late-breaking Bush DUI story.  JJ should probably stop posting here and stick to things he's better at, presuming they exist.

Oh PLEEZE, until the Oprah appearance, Bush was consistently losing to Gore.  Remember the RATS ad?  That late September bounce was Oprah.

[J. J.]

In other words, J.J. got the year right, he just got the wrong name.

I think the last candidate to lead by this much and lose was Gore, as the chart shows. 

The mid to late September peek and the smaller peek in October.  You also have to remember that it was an earlier convention.

[J. J.]

In other words, J.J. got the year right, he just got the wrong name.

I think the last candidate to lead by this much and lose was Gore, as the chart shows. 

The chart is using the media color scheme, not the sane color scheme. Look again. (Besides, Gore didn't lose the election anyhow. )

that's the only justification for what he's saying, that JJ is reading the graph as the inverse of what it really is.  (and the graph of course tracks PV, which Gore did win, so there's no necessary)

Gore is blue:



What do you call that blue peek in mid September.  It was followed by Bush surge (Oprah) and then a slight uptick for Gore.

[J. J.]

Original quote:

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

The last time Gore was up by 3% was mid-September.  He was never up by anywhere near 3% in the final month, let alone consistently.

Since we are not in the last month, as of yet, I preferred at this time. 

[J. J.]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

[J. J.]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

I didn't see that. 

[J. J.]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

The most recent polling put it at a tie.

[J. J.]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

[J. J.]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

SAY SOMETHING NON-HACKISH FOR ONCE

I didn't say the crisis would end or would end soon enough, but that has been driving the numbers.