Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Verily]

McCain's in trouble now!  The trend is there!  THE TREND

McCain has not gained ground in over a week. It's clear that his campaign is finished. The Republicans might as well dump him and replace him with Mitt Romney.

[J. J.]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

[Eraserhead]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

[Reds4]

It seems to me like the national trackers are pointing towards the possibility that by this weekend Obama will lead both Ras and Gallup by a point or so. The economy talk isn't going to help McCain.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I WANT TO BATTLE TO THE DEATH OVER THE POLL NUMBERS FOR MID SEPTEMBER

LOL MCCAIN IS THRU I SAY THAT SARCASTICALLY, LOL

LOL BARACK HUSSEIN IS ON THE ROPES, LOL, LOL, SARCASM LOL.

[J. J.]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

[Sbane]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

JJ looks like 538 was right and you were wrong.   But we shall keep observing.

[J. J.]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

JJ looks like 538 was right and you were wrong.   But we shall keep observing.

He should have; he normally gets a weekend bounce. 

[Sbane]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

JJ looks like 538 was right and you were wrong.   But we shall keep observing.

He should have; he normally gets a weekend bounce. 

So you expect movement for Mccain in a day or two eh? We will see.

[J. J.]

Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

JJ looks like 538 was right and you were wrong.   But we shall keep observing.

He should have; he normally gets a weekend bounce. 

So you expect movement for Mccain in a day or two eh? We will see.

I'm saying, if there isn't, the race is tightening.  McCain normally gets a mid week bounce; Obama normally gets a weekend bounce.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday -  September 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-2)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Wednesday -  September 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-2)

[Verily]

That midweek McCain bounce is clearly in full swing.

[Eraserhead]

LOL. But how will JJ spin this one?

[Iosif]

This is not what I expected.

[Aizen]

LOL. But how will JJ spin this one?

"Obama should be up at least 5 points. This is not good news for Obama."



Because in J.J.'s world, nothing is ever bad for McCain.

[Brittain33]

LOL. But how will JJ spin this one?

"In what respect, Charlie?" buys him a few seconds.

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday -  September 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-2)

Good, Obama now leads by an average of 2% in today's 4 tracking polls (46.8%-44.8%).

[ChrisFromNJ]

America wants to elect Barack Obama, but they are very unsure about him and are willing to look at other options.

That is my synopsis of the last few weeks.

Show them what you are made of over the next two months, Barack.

[Torie]

What would you guys do without JJ? 


Hey, I leave the States for a few days, and the stock market tanks, and McCain erodes. I will need to get back soon in order to restore some order.

[Iosif]

[J. J.]

LOL. But how will JJ spin this one?

"Obama should be up at least 5 points. This is not good news for Obama."



Because in J.J.'s world, nothing is ever bad for McCain.

No it's a good result for Obama.  In theory, McCain should be going up due to the mid week bounce.  If he just holds, it meant the race was tightening.  Now, if McCain doesn't pick up over the next three days, it is great news for Obama.

[Rowan]

Umm its a close race and will be a close race, no one should be surprised.

[JohnCA246]

This has to be the most consistently close race in history.  Others have bounced up and down and ended close.  04 was generally close, but Kerry spun in sept and rose up in early oct.  This race has been a consistent flat line.

[Sam Spade]

A few observations:

1. The earlier movement downward in the tracking polls from middle of last week I'm pretty sure had to do with McCain building an "unrealistic" lead among Independents post-RNC, which faded back down to roughly about even (where it had been pre-DNC).  I pretty much noted that, which is why I said the height of McCain's bounce was M+3 or M+2, while Gallup was saying M+5.

2. The present movement downward has little to do with Independent movement and is mostly due to shifts in party ID.  I don't have Gallup's exact numbers, but in comparison to Rasmussen's stable Dem +5, I'm willing to bet good money that Gallup is back to Dem +7-9. Hotline also has it as Dem +5, but I simply don't trust them as much (for good reason).  Note where Kos has it, flaws and all.

3. Post-RNC, it was pretty clear that a push would be found at a party ID of Dem +7.  It is quite possible that the push may now instead exist at a party ID of Dem +5 or Dem +6, but I am unsure as of yet.  I need to see how Rasmussen is at the end of the week in order for me to make a call.  That movement would indicate *actual* movement and something to really note.

4. The trick is to figure out whether this is actual party ID shift in voters or whether Republicans are becoming less enthused and are showing up less in polling.  Only time will tell there.

That is all.