Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

Latino neighborhood, Clinton bumper stickers (PA-1, Juniata Park).  Black neighborhood (PA-2, Germantown, Nicetown), Obama signs.

[J. J.]

"The Barack Barage" is a nice allusion to the first world war as now i think about it there are plenty of similarities, a massive bombardment (Obama's media buy) against a rock solid defensive position (Clinton massive organisational and demographic edge in PA)... wouldnt be surprised if the whole thing panned out the same way again.

You mean that when Obama's troops go over the top on the first day they will discover, to their horror, that not only are the Clinton defenses basically undamaged, but that the bombardment hasn't even broken the barbed wire?

Casualities on both sides would be extremely high.

Pretty much... I've been likening writing my dissertation to the battle of the Somme so the analogy apealed to me and i think it fits PA rather nicley, of course there could be various ways of interpreting it, i mean the Obama folks would probably hope that it'd be more like Amiens rather than the Somme or Passchendaele, then again they could face complete disaster and then it'd be more like the second Battle of the Aisne... but perhaps I'm taking this too far

I see this as more of an American Civil War analogy.  Is PA Chancellorsville or Gettysburg?  The first day of Gettysburg?  We won't know until May 6 or 7.

[J. J.]

At the Walmart on Roosevelt Boulevard, two Obama supporters trying to register folkes, both college students.

Phila Registrar's Office reports 25,000 new registrations/changes, about twice the number as usual for a PA primary.

[J. J.]

I'm not a big television watcher but I listen to radio.......I've heard Obama ads frequently in Pittsburgh on the radio but no Hillary ones so far.

The gist of the ads is - Obama doesn't take PAC money or cater to special interests/lobbyists etc......no policy type ads

That's basically Philadelphia as well; they've been mostly TV ads. 

I heard one radio ad regarding voter registration.

[J. J.]

Just saw an Obama TV ad. He's at a gas station talking about rising prices. It was ok but his clothing choice was odd (he had on a shirt and tie with a grey overcoat).

He also said gas was $3.50 (it's $3.11).

[J. J.]

Just got back from Hershey.  I saw one Obama sign and no Clinton signs.  I saw ads for Clinton on local stations, but none for Obama (this is the Susquehanna media market).

[J. J.]

A nice article about Nutter's support for Hillary - http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_left_story/20080407_Nutter_s_national_debut.html

I can sum it up in a nutshell:

Nutter is a DINO who was supported by almost all Republicans.

Ah, Nutter won the Democratic primary for mayor in Philadelphia.  Rendell won the i]Democratic[/i] primary for governor.  Both were contested (and closed).

I was in West Phila tonight, very few signs for Obama signs, few Clinton signs.  Not a lot of energy compared to the mayor's race.

[J. J.]

  Not a lot of energy compared to the mayor's race.

Does that surprise you? 

Actually, it does.

[J. J.]

I just listened to an interview with the Beast......she was in a burb of Pitsburgh...when asked about the poll numbers and her lead shrinking she proudly stated:  "I don't pay attention to the polls"!   

Truth is obviously not a word in the Clinton dictionary.

J. J.'s First Rule. 

She did qualify it by saying that they were a "snapshot."

[J. J.]

I just listened to an interview with the Beast......she was in a burb of Pitsburgh...when asked about the poll numbers and her lead shrinking she proudly stated:  "I don't pay attention to the polls"!   

Truth is obviously not a word in the Clinton dictionary.

J. J.'s First Rule. 

She did qualify it by saying that they were a "snapshot."

I thought your first rule was - rewrite the rules in the middle of the game?

No, the "First Rule of a Coup Master" is "1.  If possible, the coup master should write the rules." 

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."
 
I think that part of her strategy is to move the numbers,  It's not a snapshot but a goal.

[J. J.]

I had a lit drop for the Democratic candidate for state treasurer.  Nothing for the presidential candidates. 

[J. J.]

I had a lit drop for the Democratic candidate for state treasurer.  Nothing for the presidential candidates. 

Who was it for? Cordisco?

Yes.

[J. J.]

I'd react the same way.

[J. J.]

Clinton now running radio ads attacking Obama for voting on the "Bush" energy bill.

[J. J.]

Clinton now running radio ads attacking Obama for voting on the "Bush" energy bill.

But what is the "Bush" energy bill provisions he voted for?

I'll have to hear the commercial again.

[J. J.]

PA-2, yard signs are divided almost by race.  Hillary does have a presence.

[J. J.]

Just a last one before I go.  I was just invited to an Obama Campaign rally, Friday evening. 

Automated call, obviously targeting geography.  It could be an indication of a weak ground game in Phila.  No lit yet.

[J. J.]

I was sitting next to GM3 during much of the meeting, but I was also in West Chester.  Few signs, but it looked like a completely racial divide, yard sign and campaign button wise.

Poll wise, it looks like a narrow victory (and a strategic loss) for Hillary.  I'm really wondering if there isn't a Bradley Effect in PA.

[J. J.]

The Obama campaign called me and asked me to vote on Tuesday.    They got my polling place right as well.

[J. J.]

SEIU workers out in North Phila, but not a lot.

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

[J. J.]

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

Based on what? Your own wishful thinking?

No, the fairly large undecided numbers.  Instead of saying "I'm for Obama," and voting for Hillary, they might be saying "I'm undecided," and voting for Hillary.  Something like that seemed to occur in OH.

The Bradley Effect has yet to occur in any state (except in reverse in some heavily-black Deep South states) in this primary.

I've been hearing rumors that internal Obama polls show that the race is within a few percentage points and winnable. Makes sense, considering that he put out two new ads yesterday, something he didn't do in Ohio. His canvassing operations are also much more targeted than they were the weekend before Ohio.

If it was truly targeted, I shouldn't be getting GOTV calls.

[J. J.]

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

Based on what? Your own wishful thinking?

No, the fairly large undecided numbers.  Instead of saying "I'm for Obama," and voting for Hillary, they might be saying "I'm undecided," and voting for Hillary.  Something like that seemed to occur in OH.

Not really. The final polls in Ohio (ignoring Zogby and ARG, although ARG would corroborate this) were on both sides of Clinton's margin.

SUSA: C+10
PPP: C+9
Suffolk: C+12
Rasmussen: C+6
Actual: C+10

Well, if you're using Rasmussen as a comparison, Hillary by seven.   The should be a last round out. 

If I were Obama, I'd be very worried about that undecided.

[J. J.]

If it was truly targeted, I shouldn't be getting GOTV calls.

They're just assuming basically that every single person in your area is a Democrat and likely to vote for Obama. Which isn't too far from the truth in this case. In such an area it's not worth it to analyze it enough to take the 5 Republicans who live in it off the list.

It is, because it doesn't look like Obama is targeting other districts.  A friend of mine in PA-1 who is both a Democrat and African American got calls from Bill Clinton and Rendell, but not from Obama.

It sure looks like Obama is making an effort in PA-2 and taking a shotgun approach.  Clinton's ground game might be more tailored.

[J. J.]

Well her's has to be. Just like the Republicans' have to be in the general election. If you have wards that are going to vote 80%+ for you no matter what, it's worth it to just try to get every single voter who lives there out rather than spend the time filtering the few non-supporters (especially as if, as in this case, the non-supporters aren't even eligible to vote rather than being likely to vote for your opponent.)

It's not tailored but a shotgun approach.  My friend lives in a Democratic ward in PA-1.

[J. J.]

JJ, can you or one of the other Pennsylvania posters give me a list of counties you expect Obama to carry and maybe some he might carry.  I'm a total novice when it comes to your state and would like to have something to go by when the returns start coming in Tuesday night.

Thanks in advance.

"Might" would include, in this order:

1.  Montgomery County.
2.  Delaware County (especially the PA-1 Sections).
3.  Centre.
4.  Dauphin.
5.  Allegheny.

If I had to bet, Montco and Delco (but not PA-7).  Allegheny has several disadvantages, high white Catholic, high Jewish, populations, large percentage of gun ownership.  Centre has Penn State, but it's surrounded by rather conservative Democrats.  Dauphin has very high percentage of government employees.

In reality I'd look at CD's and I expect a victory in CD's 1, 2, 13, 14.  I would almost say that would be the order.  I don't expect a huge Obama victory in 2 or 13, and there is an outside chance that PA 2 will be his only win.  In a few districts, e.g. PA-12, I could see Obama gaining only 1 delegate to Clinton's 4.

I was in Chester County this weekend and I don't see an Obama victory.