UK Election 2010

[J. J.]

In America, we have a term for what the Labor campaign is becoming.  That term is train wreak.

[J. J.]

There is a reasonable chance here that the LibDems will become one of the two major parties in the UK.  If Labour come in second in terms of popular votes, the next election could be basically between the LibDems and Tories.

[J. J.]

If Labour come in second in terms of popular votes, the next election could be basically between the LibDems and Tories.

That doesn't make any sense.

The Libs, now the LibDems, have been since the 20's the "third party" of UK politics.  Basically, they are not seen as a group with a real chance of governing.  They were actually spoofed in that regard in the last episode of Monty Python.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Monty_Python%27s_Flying_Circus_episodes#6._Party_Political_Broadcast

In other words, the Libs were seen as a virtual joke or as an out of touch ideological party.  If they come in second, they are not a joke.  Voters will look to them as the legitimate opposition.

[J. J.]

J.J., I understand that argument. Your original sentence still doesn't make sense though.

Well, Meeker and BRTD didn't so I had to explain it slowly.

If the LibDems come in second, even in terms of popular vote, the may (and I suspect will) be seen as the main opposition party, especially if the Conservatives form a government.

Elections can be about change in some cases, Home in 1964, Callahan in 1979, Major in 1997, and possibly Brown in 2010.  In those elections, people looking for change looked at Lib/LibDem and, even if they liked the party/potential prime minister, also thought that the party didn't have a chance of effecting that change, by governing.  That served as a reason not to vote for them.  Simply put, Lib/LibDem couldn't win.

Now, if it suddenly looks like it could win, that argument goes away.  

Further, some Labour voters, in particular, may decide, in the next election, that Labour cannot win, and vote for the party of change, LibDems.

It all depends on if the LibDems look like they can win nationally.  Driving Labour to third place in terms of the popular vote, would help with that perception, possibly enough to really cut into Labour seats.

[J. J.]

There is a reasonable chance here that the LibDems will become one of the two major parties in the UK.  If Labour come in second in terms of popular votes, the next election could be basically between the LibDems and Tories.

J.J. !

This is the only thing I'm picking on

Sorry, if Labour comes in behind the LibDems. 

[J. J.]

I'll take the British more seriously when they lose their accents.

Come one, the accent even makes a Cockney tart sound both upper class and intellectual. 

[J. J.]

When will we start to see results coming in?

Polls close at 10pm

Our time our their time?

There time.  Our time it will be 5 or 6 in the afternoon.

[J. J.]

5pm Eastern. Are people really so bad at time zones? First results will come out around midnight BST, or around 7pm Eastern. All results that will come out this evening should be out by around 4am BST, or around 11pm Eastern.

I never know which county is on daylight savings time, or isn't.