New Tradesports rankings

[J. J.]

There is another possibility, the unpledged delegates may constitute enough so that neither group of pledged delegates has enough to elect.

Yes, the pledged delegates could be split evenly, and you could get enough unpledged delegates to refuse to vote for either of them.  But come on.  Is that really going to happen?  Isn't it pretty much a given that all the unpledged delegates would go for either Clinton or Obama, and one of them would win a majority on the first ballot?

Anyway, the share price for Dem. brokered convention has dropped to 10.3...should be closer to 0.

It might not be split down the middle.  Neither side has a majority, but one has a plurality.  The super delegates could be the "brokers," in this case.

[J. J.]

Time to buy him to win the election. He should really be at least 40 on that market.

Definitely!

[J. J.]

Long term Clinton buy, but I'd suggest waiting until after Super Tuesday.

[J. J.]

Obama is too high for CA.  Sell.

[J. J.]

Now is the time to buy McCain for President.

[J. J.]

Dem. nomination market narrows to nearly a 50/50 ties:

Clinton 50.5
Obama 49.5

Tomorrow, I would say buy Clinton.  I expect her to drop slightly; it's unwarranted, but it will happen.

[J. J.]

Dem. nomination market narrows to nearly a 50/50 ties:

Clinton 50.5
Obama 49.5

Tomorrow, I would say buy Clinton.  I expect her to drop slightly; it's unwarranted, but it will happen.

If Obama wins more delegates than Clinton tonight, the nomination fight could be over. Eight of the next nine primaries or caucuses in February favors Obama. If he leads her in the delegate count going into the Super Tuesday 1.0 and then wins TX and OH, Clinton's campaign will probably be done.

Because of the strength of the Clinton machine, I still predict Hillary will be the nominee.

The Democratic Nomination Campaign will go on past today.  This is not the Battle of Waterloo, but perhaps Ligny or Quatre Bras.

[J. J.]

Shouldn't be too much of a surprise, but:

GOP NOMINATION
McCain  95.3 (+8.3)
Romney  3.4 (-5.6)
Huckabee 2.2 (+1.2)

DEM NOMINATION
Clinton 64.0 (+10.0)
Obama 36.0 (-10.0)

Clinton may drop, slightly, in the next several days.  If it drops below 60, buy.

[J. J.]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

[J. J.]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

[J. J.]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

Another major problem for Obama are the Superdelegates, which by and large support the establishment candidate Clinton.

Oh, and if Democrats think they can get away with having a down-to-the-wire race without including Florida and Michigan's opinions in any way, they're nuts.  They probably wouldn't have won Florida anyway, but they shouldn't be trying to give McCain any more of an edge in Michigan than he might already have, lest they risk losing the state.

Both FL and MI might have caucuses, but there is at least an argument for seating the elected delegates.  In all honesty, had Obama been in the Senate since 1998, or was in his second term as Governor and had a good record there, he'd be the nominee by now.

[J. J.]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

Another major problem for Obama are the Superdelegates, which by and large support the establishment candidate Clinton.

Oh, and if Democrats think they can get away with having a down-to-the-wire race without including Florida and Michigan's opinions in any way, they're nuts.  They probably wouldn't have won Florida anyway, but they shouldn't be trying to give McCain any more of an edge in Michigan than he might already have, lest they risk losing the state.

There are still a lot of superdelegates out there that haven't endoresed either side. If Obama is leading by elected delegates by the end, then some 200-300 superdelgates will throw their support behind him. No way that the supers overrule the elected delegates. Not unless the Democratic party wants a open revolt on their hands.

He has to win in the field first.  I'm betting he won't, this time.

[J. J.]

Buy Clinton.

[J. J.]

Buy Clinton.

Agreed. She's definitely undervalued at this point.

By 4/1, you'll be able to make a 10 point profit. 

[J. J.]

Sell Obama, buy Clinton, after next weekend.

[J. J.]

Dem. Nom.

Obama  72.0
Clinton 27.5 Buy big time

Winning Idv.

Obama 48.6
McCain 34.4
Clinton 17.0 Buy big time

Winning Party

Dem 66.1
Rep 34.0  Buy

[J. J.]

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?

Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.

I'll still give a buy for Clinton for the nomination; undervalued at this point, but I'd be prepared to sell in a hurry.

[J. J.]

Clinton has surged to 92.0 to win Ohio, while Obama has surged to 82.0 to win Texas (the primary, not the caucus).

Clinton plummets to 12.1 to win the Dem. nomination.

I have a feel will see a  Clinton upswing.

[J. J.]

Democratic nomination
Obama 72.5
Clinton 27.0
Gore 1.2
Edwards 0.1

Clinton is highly undervalued, BUY!