Gore vs. Bush 1988

[J. J.]

My prediction:

206  Gore/Clinton

332 Bush/Quayle

Gore has two problems:

1.  He indirectly bashed Jesse Jackson in the primaries; there will be weaker Black support.  Jackson was exceptionally popular with the Black community, more so than today, and this would have been a one to one battle.

2.  Clinton has "bimbo eruptions."  In 1988, there are not in the distant past and they are sprung immediately on the country after he's nominated.  This also comes on the heals of Hart's withdraw for sexual impropriety.

There was also the draft question.

Clinton had ample time to counter attack in 1992, but this would have come out in July or August of 1988. 

Clinton here is a worse political choice than Quayle, politically.  The firestorm that erupted over Quayle would have look like a burnt out match in comparison.

[J. J.]

the correct answer:

gore/clinton: 52%, 307 EVs
bush/quayle: 47%. 231 EVs

I do not see CA or NM (or even IL) going for Gore in 1988.

[J. J.]

bush won illinois by 2% against dukakis.  i definitely think gore couldve done better than the duke in the land of lincoln.

ca and nm would have been very close, but i think gore would have squeaked it out.

IL I can see, but not CA or NM.  The Gore of 1988 was a lot different in 1988 that the one of 2000.  Likewise, CA and NM were a lot different.

I don't see any appeal of either Clinton or Gore in CA and NM in 1988. 

If there had been another VP candidate, it might have worked.

1988 Clinton as a VP candidate would have been a worse disaster than J. Danforth.