Obama Approval Thread October 10/16/12-1/20/13

[J. J.]

The earlier thread is here:  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.0

I will start a new one on 1/21/13 (and attempt to make them yearly threads)

Please sticky this.

Today's Gallup is:

Approve:  49, +1

Disapprove:  45, -2

[J. J.]

Please sticky this thread.

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  49, +1

Disapprove:  50, -1

Strongly Approve:  32, u

Strongly Disapprove:  43, u

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  45, u

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, +1

Obama:  45, -2

[J. J.]

Aw, J.J. thinks we won't need this thread anymore after January 20th. That's cute.

No Lief, though that might be the case.

Dave found that the other thread was slowing down the site.  I though that we should keep an approval thread, but keep it to one or two years.  I hope that there is one for whomever is elected and whose term will begin on 1/20/13.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  45, u

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, +1

Obama:  45, -2

LOL gallup is F****D up right now

Silver noted a large GOP bias in Gallup.  However, PPP has a D bias and has Romney up by 4.

[J. J.]

That's comparing a tracker poll to a field poll. The PPP poll would have given the two candidates a tie but for the lopsided Romney sample on Sunday.

If you compare Gallup to other conventional tracker polls it's a bit...askew...no?

There were two other contemporaneous polls that showed the same number.  I tend to think it is Romney, +2 to +6.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  48, -1

Disapprove:  51, +1

Strongly Approve:  30, -2

Strongly Disapprove:  44, +1

Head to Head:

Romney: 49, u

Obama:  47, u

One third of the sample is post 2nd debate.

And thank you for stickying this thread! 

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  50, +1

Disapprove:  44, -1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u


Note that only 1/7 of the sample is post debate; I really think they has to be a pro-Romney sample in there. 

[J. J.]

No way obama is having an approval of +6% but losing to romney by 7%!!

Approval is based on all adults.  The head to head is likely voters.  That could account for some of the difference.  As I've said, I think there is a pro Romney bad sample in there.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  48, -1

Disapprove:  51, +1

Strongly Approve:  29, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  43, -1

Head to Head:

Romney: 48, -1

Obama:  48, +1

Two thirds of the sample is post 2nd debate.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  50, u

Disapprove:  46, +1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, -1

Obama:  45, u

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  47, -1

Disapprove:  52, +1

Strongly Approve:  28, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  44, +1


Head to head (likely):

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  48, u

This is the first totally post 2nd debate tracker. 

Rasmussen indicated that Friday's sample was very strong for Romney. 

Could someone else get Gallup today, as I will be out.  Maybe it will come back to earth.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, -1

Disapprove:  46, u

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, u

Obama:  45, u

You can always tell when Obama's numbers are bad or at least not improving.  Nobody posts them. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  49, +2

Disapprove:  51, -1

Strongly Approve:  27, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  43, -1


Head to head (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1

Okay, keep your eye on the Strongly Approved number.  That is the lowest since 9/26.  It might be a bad sample, but it has shown a 5 point drop in four day.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  44, -1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

[J. J.]

So his Job Approval is going up... but his LV is tanking...hmmmmmmm

Voters vs. all adults. 

[J. J.]

Yeah, Gallup includes minorities in their adult sample, but does not include minorities in their likely voter sample, explaining the disparity between the two numbers.

Where did you get that? 

Obviously, the all adult sample includes non-voters. 

[J. J.]

An article on HuffPost extrapolated that Gallup's likely voter electorate is 80% white, which is obviously ridiculous.

That might be a bad extrapolation, or it might be how they are treating Hispanics.  It might also express a change in the demographics of turnout. The non-Hispanic white vote in the exit polls were 72% or 73% (if Alcon can be believed).   

[J. J.]

If Obama got blown out with a 51% approval rating on election day, it will be the most ridiculous thing ever.

Here's to hoping Obama's Chicago Machine fights through the malaise and chicanery and gets supporters of both candidates to turn out and vote.

So far, the numbers indicate that there less enthusiasm on the D side.  I would be paying attention to early/absentee voting now vs. 2008 and the "strongly approve" numbers on Rasmussen. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  50, +1

Disapprove:  49, -2

Strongly Approve:  26, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  42, -1

Head to Head:

Romney: 49, u

Obama:  47, u

Strange sample, but that strongly approved numbers are still declining.  It has been more than a 3 day sample.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  46, +1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, +1

Obama:  45, u

Romney is no longer warping through interstellar space; he is in low earth orbit.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  50, u

Disapprove:  49, u

Strongly Approve:  26, u

Strongly Disapprove:  42, u

Head to Head:

Romney: 50, +1

Obama:  46, -1

Strongly approved does indicate a loss of enthusiasm.  It has fallen six points in one week.   

Note that all these numbers were pre-third debate.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  51, +2

Disapprove:  45, -1

? ? ?

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, u

Obama:  46, +1

[J. J.]

Its kind of weird how since the RDNC Obama's approval has been very steady. It didn't change much when Romney got hit with 47% nor has it changed much since Obama lost the first debate. It has pretty much hovered between 49 and 50.

This is all about enthusiasm though. Is Bush's 49.5 better than Obama's 49.5? I would say yes. Republicans have been shown to be more likely to vote. So While it is a good thing to have Obama around 50, he is going to have to work even harder than Bush to get those people to actually vote

Obama needs to emphasize early voting as he did in 2008.  That's the key.

Get as much locked in supporters as possible to vote early and then get those same supporters to spend election day nudging leaners with promises of shorter voting lines.

Well, where we have numbers, early voting is going R, at least compared to 2008. 

Personally, I'd rather try to switch monentum at this point.

[J. J.]

Its kind of weird how since the RDNC Obama's approval has been very steady. It didn't change much when Romney got hit with 47% nor has it changed much since Obama lost the first debate. It has pretty much hovered between 49 and 50.

This is all about enthusiasm though. Is Bush's 49.5 better than Obama's 49.5? I would say yes. Republicans have been shown to be more likely to vote. So While it is a good thing to have Obama around 50, he is going to have to work even harder than Bush to get those people to actually vote

Obama needs to emphasize early voting as he did in 2008.  That's the key.

Get as much locked in supporters as possible to vote early and then get those same supporters to spend election day nudging leaners with promises of shorter voting lines.

Well, where we have numbers, early voting is going R, at least compared to 2008. 

Personally, I'd rather try to switch monentum at this point.

That's irrelevant.  What early voting has been thus far has nothing to do with Obama encouraging Democrats to vote early.

His much lauded GOTV drive must be broken then.