Dick Morris: What Many Polls Are Missing

[J. J.]

1st - The feeling isn't in the air.  I don't see the enthusiasm like I saw in 2008 where nearly every single person I knew outside of my family was voting for Obama.  I don't see signs, shirts and other campaign materials.  In 2008, all I saw was a sea of Obama signs.  This year I see much more enthusiasm for Romney and I know multitudes of people who voted for Obama that are either staying home or voting for Romney - and yes, this is post-convention.  I live in a heavily democratic city too.  In the recent primary, turnout was 48% on the republican side, 52% on the democratic side.  Make what you will.

J. J.'s Third Rule of Elections:  Supposed indicators, crowd size, signs and bumper stickers, letters to the editor, are meaningless in terms of actual voter support, though might be an indicator of campaign organization.

I have seen more Obama signs left over from 2008 than I have for 2012, but I'm not in a hotly contested state.

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The polling seems to be lower and if Obama is reelected, it will likely be with fewer EV's.  The polls indicate a tight race.

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The conservative might be more fired up by events.  Obama is dead, but al Qaeda lives.  The handling of the Islamic world may inspire more Republicans than Democrats; Libya may turn into a net minus for Obama.  Operation Fast and Furious will inspire many on the right to vote against Obama, and may energize the base.

[J. J.]

The Libyan intervention had more to do with Atlanticism than anything else, but I guess that it's all globalism to you, brother.

Me?  No.  What bothers me is the changing story about Libya, the serial and the attacks on about 20 embassies since then.

I've generally given Obama high marks on foreign police, but he blew this latest crisis.

[J. J.]

The Libyan intervention had more to do with Atlanticism than anything else, but I guess that it's all globalism to you, brother.

Me?  No.  What bothers me is the changing story about Libya, the serial and the attacks on about 20 embassies since then.

I've generally given Obama high marks on foreign police, but he blew this latest crisis.

What could Obama have done that would have been better than having 30,000 Libyans storm the extremist's compound?

Well, not changed the story about who attacked the embassy in Libya.  Not apologized for the film (which may caused more trouble).  

[J. J.]

The Libyan intervention had more to do with Atlanticism than anything else, but I guess that it's all globalism to you, brother.

Me?  No.  What bothers me is the changing story about Libya, the serial and the attacks on about 20 embassies since then.

I've generally given Obama high marks on foreign police, but he blew this latest crisis.

I was addressing nhmagic there, J.J. As for your concerns about Obama's handling of the embassy attacks, I'd turn your attention to the massive pro-democracy, pro-USA, anti-militia demonstrations taking place in Libya. It's hardly the xenophobic scare story the American right-wing would like to feed us.

I don't deny that, but the serial apologies for the film seem to have emboldened others.  Also, the change in stories regarding Libya, first a protest that became violent, then a "self evident" terrorist attack, created a problem.

[J. J.]

This is the key cognitive dissonance with this issue. Saying that this movie was deeply, deeply offensive is not apologizing for it, no one did. The only purpose of the film was to garner that kind of response.

You can say, "I personally disagree with the movie, but in US, we let people say what they wish.  And if you would like to make a movie showing the truth about the Prophet,^* many Americans will watch and it certainly will be permitted."  

^*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad,_Messenger_of_God

[J. J.]

A brain-damaged baboon would make a better Romney surrogate.

The Democrats already have Biden.

[J. J.]

Eh, it was dumb of me to stoop to name-calling, despite my statement being true in its most technical sense.

In any case, I'm baffled by the constant disparagement Biden. Much of it is as superficial as the feigned outrage over Michelle Obama's vegetable garden. What's the deal, Biden-haters? Still upset over him torpedoing Bork?

Ah, who is complaining about the garden.

Biden has had a sting of blunders, including some recently.  A joke on SNL last night was that Obama was doing well, and not hearing Biden's name in a month was an example.

[J. J.]

How about you, J.J.? You admittedly haven't been nearly as over the top unrealistic as Politico or NH Magic, but I still detect enough confidence in your posts to satisfy a betting man.

Consider the offer below open to you too.

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

Ask me next Tuesday.

There are some good signs.  Libya has damaged Obama (and so has the rest of the Islamic world).

The "right track wrong direction" numbers went up after the DNC, but the swung back up.  The R's are leading on generic congressional ballot, after dropping after the DNC.

The 47% comment was damaging, but the damage appears to be ephemeral; it appears was on Rasmussen.  I'm waiting to see in Gallup swings after the same 3-4 day period.  Obama was actually decreasing before that on Gallup.

I'm looking at enthusiasm and turnout.  So far, I'm not seeing too many outward signs for Obama in my area.  That is not a good measure (J. J.'s Third Rule).  I have not been in areas that were overtly GOP, so it could be the same across the board.

Registration in PA seems not to have been pushed.  I had to go down to the Registration Office to change my ID to comply with the new PA law.  I got there at 1:00 PM; I was the only person there (though three others came as I was being taken care of).

From what I can tell, NC is shifting to Romney in the actual voters.  I would expect Romney to run better in EV's than McCain.

I predicted the drop Romney would have this week on Gallup.  If it just a reaction to 47%, he should be tied or better by Monday on both Gallup and Rasmussen.  If that happens, I'll start from there.

[J. J.]

Catch me Tuesday if I don't catch you first.

Or tell me when those "good signs" are enough to make you want to bet more than espuse maybes.

Well, I just did.    Enthusiasm seems low.  There has been no effort to register the base.  (In PA, you have to vote every two years or your registration lapses.)  I think you only have until 10/6 to reregister. 

The absentee ballots in NC, so far, are showing a 10% African American makeup and they are trending older.  Youth vote (which wasn't a huge component) seems to be lower. 

Yes, I think voter turnout with key elements of the Democratic base will be lower, but I don't know how much lower.

I would not be too surprised to see Obama's percent of the popular vote fall, even if he wins.