The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

But that is just wrong.  It was R + 26.1 at this point in 2008, not R+20.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/



19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

First, you are using the 2012 numbers for 2008.

Second the 2008 absentee ballots received for 10/16/08 were:

arty

    Republicans:  54.71%
    Democrats:  29.17%  

That is a gap 25.5%.  Today the gap is 27.1.  So the votes received are about 1.6 point improvement, but the applications are still running higher for R voters, so the gap is likely to grow.
    

I am using the numbers I got by hitting the "Compare to 2008" bar.

Bottom line numbers are very close to 2008 levels.

I copied them straight off the page.  And we are talking a slight shift to the GOP, but the state was only slightly D in 2008.  Obama carried it by less than 15,000.

[J. J.]

We should see a swing to the D's today in NC, because of early voting.

[J. J.]

NC with One Stop voting:

Dem    47.3%
Rep    34.8%
None/Oth    17.9%

Race jumped, but age did not, with the younger group.  The electorate is skewing about 3 years older.

First day comparison from 2008:

D 52.1%
R 32.1%

R gain of about 7.5 points, in terms of the gap.  The age gap is higher than 2004 however.

Race is running about the same.  It is a slightly less white electorate, but under 0.5 points.

IA has a votes cast D +0.3 over 2008.  In terms of applications, R have improved from 2008 from a 18.8 gap to a 14.8 gap, though we don't have day to day comparisons.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[J. J.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.wect.com/story/19852629/dozens-turn-out-for-first-day-of-early-voting

While narrowing, it's still not bad for the Democrats. But considering that 2008 was really close, I would say Romney will win it this time by a few points.

That has been my premise for a few weeks.

IA more strongly R as well, and both these are supported by the polls.

I wish we had decent numbers out of OH.

[J. J.]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

[J. J.]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

[J. J.]

I don't think anybody expects the Democrats will get the same percentage margins over Republicans in early voting in 2012 that they did in 2008 simply because this year the Romney Campaign is making an effort in Early Voting while McCain did not. To me the more interesting numbers will be comparing raw Democratic turnout in 2012 vs 2008. The Republican talking point the past couple of years has been that Democratic enthusiasm and turnout will be down this year, so far that does not seem to be the case. If Democrats show up in the numbers they did in 2008 Obama wins, simple as that.

Not a good comparison.  The raw numbers are different percentages of turnout.

[J. J.]

Actually, you should note that there was a massive influx of D requests at the start (noted by Tender Branson on page 2 or 3).  It is like the D's entered into battle and fired all their ammunition with the first shot. 

The requests have been soaring and the percentages have been closing.

Not this week. Nor  in absolute terms.

10/12

Democrats 110,053
Republicans 57,341
Indies          38,801

Gap: 52,712

Today

Democrats 147,234
Republicans 92,072
Indies          61,833

Gap: 55,162

The Democratic absolute lead is growing and has been for a week and a half. But because that lead is less than the 17% margin overall from 2008, and turnout is on track to exceed 2008, the relative gap is falling.

Iowa's absentee requests are interesting:

Dem    49.1%
Rep    29.0%
None/Oth    21.9%
   
in 1998, they were:

Dem 47
Rep 28.2
Other 24.8

Both the R and D have improved, the the D's still hold the edge.  It has closed a bit.

Today, in terms of absentee ballot requests, Iowa Republicans have closed the gap below the 2008 levels, but not by a lot.

Party Reg    
Dem    48.1%
Rep    29.7%
None/Oth    22.1%

[J. J.]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore.  

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

He said the Democrats have been gaining in raw votes.  You said "Actually, that is wrong," and then noted that their proportion of the ballots has decreased.  Those are different things.  You are awful.

Yeah, JJ stated it poorly, but IF he's correct the point remains Democrats will reap a lower net vote total from pre-election day voting than in 2008.

Well, it was top heavy initially with Democratic voters.  Even from the start, the percentage of D voters has dropped.  Since yesterday, the number of D voters has decreased relative to the R's.  The applications for absentee ballots are running more strongly for R's than D's and the percentage of R's have increased and D's have decreased in terms of percentage of the vote.

The percentage difference between R and D voters is smaller than 2008 and it appears that R's will be a larger percentage of the electorate in IA (and NC and OH) that it was in 2008.

[J. J.]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

He's using the Marist crap, not the actual ballots. 

The "one stop" registration and mail registrations not processed was just under a 40,000 vote net gain in 2008.  The R's had a 70,000 + gain.  On election day, there will be 30-40 K more Republicans than there were in 2008.  Obama's MOV was just under 14,200.

NC is gone for Obama.

[J. J.]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

He's using the Marist crap, not the actual ballots. 

The "one stop" registration and mail registrations not processed was just under a 40,000 vote net gain in 2008.  The R's had a 70,000 + gain.  On election day, there will be 30-40 K more Republicans than there were in 2008.  Obama's MOV was just under 14,200.

NC is gone for Obama.

Eh, you have the same problem with those stats as you do with Early voting. The current electorate is less white than 2008, but also the gap between Ds and Rs is less. The same is true of North Carolina. Republicans may have closed the gap by 70,000, but Democrats closed the gap by about 350K in terms of the White-Black/Hispanic/Other numbers. On election day in 2008, NC registration was 73.1% white. Today it is 71.4% white. Nonwhites are registering independent.

Obama on a simple demographic measurement has probably picked up abut a net 75,000 or so voters since November 2008. He has probably lost far more than that because of his poor performance as President and generally poor poll ratings, but I wish hacks would shut up about the supposed D-R % gap as if it meant anything at all. It does not. In NC the Racial demographics, and age breakdown of the white vote matter far more.

I terms of actual voters, the R/D gap is hugely important.  Most people register for a party based on their ideology.  Someone who just loves Obama doesn't say, "Hey, I think I'll register Republican."

Also, so far, the racial divide in NC is up by about 2%, but the party affiliation number is up by about the same amount.  Further, the electorate is skewing older.  

NC is gone.

[J. J.]

Washoe County Nevada.

Nevada's swing county.

Early Vote day 1

Total 9,638

Dems 4,604 (47.77%)
Reps 3,619 (37.54%)
Other 1,415 (14.68%)

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Now, how do these compare to last time?

[J. J.]

Day 1 2008 (Sorry no link. Being the geek I am I had these numbers saved on my computer)

Total 6,554

Dems 3,909 (59.64%)
Rep 1,668 (25.45%)
Other 977 (14.91%)

FWIW Republicans do hold a small voter registration advantage in Washoe county. Any Democratic lead, even a smaller one than in 2008, is good news for the Dems.

Not really.  This is a turnout situation, so comparing 2008 to today is a better indicator.  Obama won it 55 to 42, but he probably won the early voters, since that was the pattern in other states.

[J. J.]

The median age fell 8 years in two days. I would hold your horses on declarations about that. Secondly, black democrats vote very differently than white democrats. If Blacks are voting we know they are voting 95-5 Obama. Black Democrats will vote 99-1 Obama. White Democrats 75-25. Black Independents 85-15.

Demographics are especially important in a state like NC, far more important than Party ID given the number of DINOS.

Even comparing the median age with the same points in time in 2008, 2012 is an older electorate.

I also took a look at the week after registration ended.  That was this past week and the D's had a net gain of 11,000 votes.  In 2008, it was 36,000.  The trending is not there.  NC is going R this year, and both campaigns have pulled resources.

[J. J.]

I terms of actual voters, the R/D gap is hugely important.  Most people register for a party based on their ideology.  Someone who just loves Obama doesn't say, "Hey, I think I'll register Republican."

Also, so far, the racial divide in NC is up by about 2%, but the party affiliation number is up by about the same amount.  Further, the electorate is skewing older.  

NC is gone.

Blacks have added about 120k voters, and other minorities 100k, over the past 4 years. In the meanwhile they lost 180k or so white Democrats.


The dropoff probably mixes olds and college kids in the triangle.

Olds voting are up this year, at this point. 

[J. J.]

Democrats have large advantages in Clark and Washoe country after the first day of early voting. Nevada may be off the table for Romney by next weekend.

Possibly, but we don't know if he is doing better or worse than 2008. 

[J. J.]

He won by 13% in 2008. He can afford to do a lot worse and still win easily.

We don't know the percentages in 2008.  He could be doing far better or far worse.

[J. J.]

Washoe County Nevada.

Nevada's swing county.

Early Vote day 1

Total 9,638

Dems 4,604 (47.77%)
Reps 3,619 (37.54%)
Other 1,415 (14.68%)

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

The final in 2008 was:

Dem
   47.1%
Rep
   35.3%
No/Oth
   17.5%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

I would caution against making comparisons, but the gap is currently lower.
   

[J. J.]

2008 early voting was a disaster for the Republicans, if they can't improve on those horrible numbers they should just give up.

Well, it seems to be better and, in general, the early vote gets front loaded D (as it did in IA).  If we had a same point in time comparison, we might have a better understanding of what's happening.

Basically, NV shows some indication of being a more R electorate, but it too early to tell. 

[J. J.]

Republicans lost Washoe County again today, 2262 to 1830.

What was the total vote and what was the percentage?

[J. J.]

Republicans lost Washoe County again today, 2262 to 1830.

What was the total vote and what was the percentage?

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

So we are talking about, so far:

D 46.7%

R 36.9%

O  16.4%

The gap closed slightly since yesterday and is running about 2 points below 2008.  The key words are "so far."

[J. J.]

Okay, we have three states, IA (in terms of applications), NC, and NV, where, so far, R's are running a little bit ahead of 2008. 

[J. J.]

How is Clark County, NV (home of Las Vegas) doing?

Clark is running a bit more strongly in the first day. 

[J. J.]

Okay, we have three states, IA (in terms of applications), NC, and NV, where, so far, R's are running a little bit ahead of 2008. 

Which, in an election like this, still has to be considered good news for Obama, no? I mean, he doesn't need 350, just 270. Or will there be so much smaller a gap on actual election day that this shift could be significant?

No.  From what we were seeing this is the time of D peak in early voting, at least in NC.  It looks like the had a net loss in same day registration in the last weeks 2008.  They will probably peek in that category this coming week.   We can see the peek, and we know it is slightly lower than 2008; how deep will the valley be?  

In IA and NC the indications are that there will be an influx in R's.  Now in neither case will that probably be enough to give Romney the lead in early or absentee voting, but it might give him the lead when combined with election day voting.

It is also a measure of enthusiasm.  

[J. J.]

NC

Dem    48.1%
Rep    30.9%
None/Oth    21.0%

Black voters are running at about 5 points higher than 2008 final.  Under 45 voters are running more than 12 points behind there final 2008.  In 2008, this looks like the top week for the D's.  R's are still a fractional point ahead of the 2008 final.

IA has not updated.

J.J., I don't believe anyone will dispute that Republicans will do better this year than in 2008.

The problem is, stating this fact is banal. We know Republicans will do better. But the deficit to overcome in these states (except NC) is so enormous that statements like this are meaningless. Romney can win NC narrowly, lose Iowa narrowly, and lose Nevada by mid single digits and lost the election. There is simply no value in noting that Republicans are doing slightly better than in 2008, even if you talk about "trends" and "closing."

Also: Florida.

A number of posts have been disputing that, or hinting at it.  The margin is important as is the demographics (where we have it).  I really can't figure out why we wouldn't be talking about this on this thread.

FL curtained in person voting (or tried to) forcing more people to use an absentee ballot.  IA, from what I understand, is permitting it in some situations that would likely benefit R's slightly.