LA PrimR: Magellan Strategies: Santorum Leads Romney by 13% with Gingrich Close Behind

[J. J.]

No, since non-Romney vote isn't an entity. Only votes over 25% counts.

That only accentuates my point even more, since it means 25.01% instead of 24.99% can mean losing more than five delegates. "Non-Romney" is not an entity for proportional purposes, but it is for avoiding a brokered convention purposes (although I imagine if Romney were at 1139, there would be heavy pressure on Gingrich and Santorum to drop out).

Beet is correct, as usual.  A vote of Romney 24.9%, Gingrich 24.0%, Others 10.1% and Santorum 41 will net Santorum 20 delegates (if it is even across the state).  A vote of Romney 25.01%, Gingrich 20.00%, Others 5% and Santorum 50.99% will give  him 13 delegates and Romney 7 delegates, for a net gain of six for Rick.

[J. J.]

Due to the threshold, if Mittens fails to break 25% of the vote here, he is really in trouble. Consider.

25.01% of the vote = 5 delegates for Mittens, 15 delegates non-Mittens. Or best case scenario, non-Mittens nets 10 delegates over Mittens.

24.99% of the vote = 20 delegates for non-Mittens. Non-Mittens nets 20 delegates over Mittens.

Difference is a net of 10 delegates.

The only thing that matters is the number of delegates Mittens gets. 5 delegates are at stake here. I consider Newt and Rick as one candidate at this point, and I don't expect Newt to be campaigning in any state where his increasing his vote share, might increase the number of Mittens delegates. In other words, I expect to see him only in proportional states.

It is actually a bit lower.  Once the 25% threshold is reached, the delegates will be divided.  If Mittens get just 25% and Santorum gets 50%, Mittens gets 1/3 of the delegates with Rick getting 2/3, or 6 to 14.

If Romney should get 30% Santorum 45%, Mittens gets 8 and Santorum gets 12.

If Newt also breaks 25%, Mitt 28%, and Santorum gets 45%, the split is 5, 6, 9.

[J. J.]

My guess is a 60/40 split on the proportional delegates.  Santorum 12, Romney 8.