National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.

It's Zogby.

[J. J.]

I really, really think (even if Obama loses) that Gallup will end up with egg on its face again.

They did the last time, but in the other direction.

I think it just be a very pro-Romney sample skewed everything. 

[J. J.]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.

And in all fairness, we are not seeing any debate bounce on other polls, though I think it is too early.

[J. J.]

Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

The odds on two are about 400 to 1.

[J. J.]

Way too early to know what the debate bounce will be like in the trackers (if there is one). All of these are majority pre-debate.

Plus, as I've pointed out before, the coverage of these debates is usually more important than the debates themselves. The coverage of this debate has definitely been more favorable toward Obama than his opponent (although it admittedly doesn't quite compare to the Romney lovefest that happened after the first one).

It will take days for things to sink in.

We might start getting something on Rasmussen tomorrow, if there is anything.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  48, -1

Obama:  48, +1

[J. J.]

THE BOUNCE HAS BEGUN

Ah, Obama didn't go up. 

[J. J.]

THE BOUNCE HAS BEGUN

Ah, Obama didn't go up. 

Don't make me use the panic man. 

[J. J.]

The thing is, Obama was doing worse than last week than he is now, so the debate did shift things somewhat. He recovered points even before the debate, so there wasn't going to be a huge change at the stage, anyway.

Ah, no. 

[J. J.]

Ah, no. 

Such an intelligent response.

Double that of the quoted material. 

[J. J.]

Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP is "pretty good," you need a new definition of "pretty good." 

[J. J.]

Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP, you need a new definition of "pretty good." 

Nobody takes Gallup seriously. Not even Romney's Republican pollsters. Plus there are national polls besides those three, perhaps you haven't heard.

And the main point was that all of the movement in the national polls so far today has been toward Obama, maybe you missed that too.

It still isn't a good day, though I think Gallup has a bad sample in it.  It will be a good day when it drops out, but that wasn't today. 

[J. J.]

Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP is "pretty good," you need a new definition of "pretty good." 

Don't reference Gallup seriously if you want to be taken seriously.

JJ will need to do much more than that to be taken seriously.

Quoted for truth. 

[J. J.]

Larry Sabato is questioning Gallup's methodology on Twitter. I think Gallup may have some real issue here.

That is a possibility.  It still has a self fulfilling prophesy effect.

[J. J.]

The debate bounce is sweeping across the country. I invite my Romney-supporting friends to jump aboard the Obama Train before it's too late!

It is ship, not a train.  The RMS Titanic.

[J. J.]

RAND Poll
Obama 48.54% (-.28)
Romney 45.89% (+.23)

Looks like a pretty good Romney sample was picked up last Thurseday.

Rasmussen got on on Friday, according to their website. 

[J. J.]

Alan Abrmowitz says that Gallup is an outlier because their LV model is excluding too many non-whites...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/election-polls-gallup_b_1989865.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

Unlike the obsession with party ID weighting, race is something that really matters.

Even the Romney campaign is working on the assumption that 26% of the electorate will be non-white
http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/obama-needs-80-of-minority-vote-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824

While I will agree that their modeling may be off, Obama dropped to 46% (-1) on Gallup's Registered Voter poll.

[J. J.]

Rasussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1

[J. J.]

Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered): 

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

[J. J.]

Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered): 

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

Some comments.

1.  This is not due to a problem with the likely voter screen.  It could be a problem of sample weighting.

2.  This is not do to a bad sample; this has lasted too long. 

3.  Okay, Lief, now you can panic. 

[J. J.]

So today's trackers range from Romney +7 to Obama +6.

Gallup are in a world of their own.

Possibly IBD/TIPP is susceptible to wild swings. Remember how it shot up to Romney +5 the second day it was published, before settling down again?

No, that's Rasmussen, not Gallup. 

Gallup might have a problem with their sample.  In 2008, they overestimated Obama.

[J. J.]

Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered):  

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

The state polls do not agree with this sh*t. Tied race at best, but not Romney+7.

I doubt that it is at +7, but it does show momentum, as does the LV numbers.  It is Romney lead, at best.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen (Likely Voters):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

[J. J.]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.

[J. J.]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.

Down compared to what?

2008 and to the other party.  Obama's Strongly Approve number has dropped 5-6 points in the past week.