Most vulnerable Southern state for Republicans

[illegaloperation]

I was going to say a few things, but Lt. Governor TJ seems to have already covered them.

And yes, the same forces that is reshaping Virginia is also reshaping North Carolina.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina is particularly interesting: it's the only state where the governor cannot veto redistricting.

After 2010, Republicans have gerrymandered themselves in and are almost impossible to remove. As a result, they will keep moving to the right undaunted by the shift of the state.

Of cause, the state as a whole is moving aggressively to the left thanks to the people who are move there from the northeast (and other places) for STEM.

In the future, North Carolina is going to have very liberal governor and other statewide office holders (and vote for Democratic presidents), but extremely conservative statehouses.

Democrats are going to have hard time making inroad to the statehouses and congressional districts because the gerrymandered districts are very conservative.

Meanwhile, Republicans are going to have hard time with winning statewide since their state and congressional districts are extremely conservative while the state as a whole is liberal.

[illegaloperation]

Its a shame what happened to the so-called "Rust Belt". Those cities have by far the coolest skylines, and are in my opinion the most beautiful cities in America. I like "old" cities. Unfortunately, even with 5 decades of decline brought by unionism, they still seem not to learn. Whilst Whites down South have long shifted to the GOP, many ethnic Whites up there seem to be very stubborn going Republican. I'd say even the old southern Whites were not that stubborn leaving the Dems.

Stop blaming unions!!!

North Carolina has a big decline in manufacturing and yet it has a right to work law since 1947.

[illegaloperation]

The obvious answer is of course Virginia and North Carolina. We already know that the Democrats are able to win those states.

In the near future they may also be able to win Georgia. If the Democrats are able to pick away Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia there is absolutely no chance of the Republicans winning the election. The GOP needs to realize that Virginia might not return to the fold, and that Georgia might not be as solidly red as it is today.

They need to develop policies to appeal to new voters in these states, both highly educated transplants from the Northeast and Hispanics (I don’t think they can compete for the Black vote anytime soon).  The good news is that this will not just help them in Virginia. It may also help them in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Are you kidding me?

After the Republicans took over the North Carolina state government for the first time in 130 years, the Republicans are swinging the state as far right as possible.

Don't like it? Well, too bad since they have supermajority thanks to redistricting.

And don't let me even get to race-baiting in Georgia. (I am not African American, but even I think it is outrageous.)

[illegaloperation]

Even though this poll is already nine years old, the answers are still correct...

Except for Arkansas. Georgia is probably a lot more dangerous for the GOP.

I might actually be more worried about Georgia than North Carolina right now:

1. There are still significant Blue Dog rural Democrat pockets in NC that haven't switched sides yet- enough to control multiple CDs under the old Dem gerrymander.  This will give Republicans a buffer against more Northern transplants moving in.  In GA, white voters outside of Atlanta are already near unanimous R as of 2012 and any Dem gains in Atlanta metro will translate statewide.

2.  The demographics are changing significantly faster in GA than NC.

3.  A future Dem governor in GA would be able to veto 2021 redistricting, unlike in NC.

There is a myth that Democrats have a lot of room to collapse in western NC because it doesn't vote as Republican as eastern TN or western VA.

Unlike eastern TN or western VA, western NC doesn't have large scale coal mining. As result, the floor for a Democrat is higher.

Did I also mention Ashville is in western NC?

[illegaloperation]

The blue dog vote in WNC is here to stay, IMO. If it didn't collapse under Obama, I seriously doubt that its gone for good.

And Asheville is growing, but, more importantly, is increasing its D numbers - Buncombe went from voting for Bush in 2004 to being a safe D county today.

Ditto.