Which State is Most Likely to "Flip" in 2016?

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina.

Republicans have turned the state into a laughingstock after they took over the state for the first time in 130 years.

[illegaloperation]

The only sensible answers are Florida and North Carolina, as the closest states and the closest won by each party. [..]
Your answer should basically boil down to "Do you think it's more likely than not that the 2016 Democratic nominee will outperform Obama?", with perhaps a further tilting of the scales towards the Republicans on the basis that NC was not as close as FL and Obama is perhaps a uniquely good fit for that state.    

The order doesn't have to stay the same in every election. It's conceivable that North Carolina move to the left of Florida and the Democratic nominee lost Florida, but won North Carolina.

North Carolina is basically a two cycle delay of Virginia.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina's the most likely Romney state to flip, but it is historically unlikely since it requires the Democratic nominee to outperform Obama in 2012.

North Carolina is experiencing the same similar demographic trends to those of those of Virginia.  The urban areas (Research Triangle, Charlotte, etc.) is gaining population while the rural parts of the state is losing population.

Furthermore, after the Republicans have taken over the state government for the first time in 130 years, they have alienate the urban dweller by pushing through far-right wing agenda.