LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

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NC Pub Senate field is still a jungle, but Berry is the only one to tie Hagan. Hagan leads Cain/Foxx/Tillis 48-41, Ellmers 48-39.

Hagan approval rating improved, but she now has a smaller lead? What's up with that?

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What are some of Kagan's specific weaknesses?

Her coming out of same-sex marriage is an obvious one. I am not sure how much of an impact that may have.

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Well, how bout that. Senator Landrieu and I were both in Charlotte this weekend; she was at the race with Dale Jr. supporting the National Guard:

You managed to run into her? Wow!

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Tillis will soft launch tomorrow, file next week.

He will have to answer why a bunch of stupid bills are passing the State House.

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What's happening in North Carolina? There are these huge protests against NC Republicans.

Obviously the R majority in the general assembly is locked in by redistricting. The D can cut R advantage of supermajority to just simple majority: that is if the D can get their party back in order.

I am very surprise that the R is driving the state hard to the right just as the state is becoming more and more purple. NC is probably 8 years behind VA.

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I don't think NC has anything like the DC suburbs in NOVA driving its growth like VA does, does it?

Actually, NC does. It has the Research Triangle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_Triangle

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Here's a good DKE diary about some of the regressive bills that are driving the protests.

What does this mean for future NC elections?

Does it mobilize the Democratic base? I've heard that the GA has also alienated a lot of moderate Republicans.

The state is moving to the left so it will be even more competitive in the future.

Obviously, the far right-wing NC Republicans in the GA are protected to a big extent by redistricting.

Then there's the problem of voter suppression.

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I just have a question. Why is this Gop gerrymandering passed in 2010? I mean, the governor was democrat!

The Governor can't veto redistricting in NC. NC has a relatively weak executive; the Governor's office didn't get veto power over anything until 1996.

So as Krazen said, the democrats risk to have "100 years of punishment"...

The easiest way to fix this is by ballot initiative to create bipartisan redistricting.

It would be much harder for Democrats to win back the majority right before the 2020 redistricting.

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I just have a question. Why is this Gop gerrymandering passed in 2010? I mean, the governor was democrat!

The Governor can't veto redistricting in NC. NC has a relatively weak executive; the Governor's office didn't get veto power over anything until 1996.

So as Krazen said, the democrats risk to have "100 years of punishment"...

The easiest way to fix this is by ballot initiative to create bipartisan redistricting.

It would be much harder for Democrats to win back the majority right before the 2020 redistricting.

North Carolina doesn't have an initiative system though. Only the state legislature can refer something to the ballot right now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiatives_and_referendums_in_the_United_States#Types_of_initiatives_and_referendums

It looks like fixing this will be harder than I thought.

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I just have a question. Why is this Gop gerrymandering passed in 2010? I mean, the governor was democrat!

The Governor can't veto redistricting in NC. NC has a relatively weak executive; the Governor's office didn't get veto power over anything until 1996.

So as Krazen said, the democrats risk to have "100 years of punishment"...

The easiest way to fix this is by ballot initiative to create bipartisan redistricting.

It would be much harder for Democrats to win back the majority right before the 2020 redistricting.

North Carolina doesn't have an initiative system though. Only the state legislature can refer something to the ballot right now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiatives_and_referendums_in_the_United_States#Types_of_initiatives_and_referendums

It looks like fixing this will be harder than I thought.

Yeah. I personally think the fastest route to end all of this is Democrats winning the presidency in 2016/2020 and appointing new Supreme Court justices after retirements come, thus breaking the current conservative majority on the court. Then that [new] court issues a ruling ending gerrymandering (both federal and state maps) nationwide. And that's quite a stretch too so we're probably going to be dealing with this for some time.

I highly doubt that that would happen. Both parties like gerrymandering.

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For redistricting reform, we're basically at the mercy of the Assembly.

The House would probably pass nonpartisan redistricting legislation, but the Republican leaders in the Senate are more partisan.

Why did Democrats ran North Carolina for 130 years without building a fire exit?

Yeah but they don't equally "benefit" from it right now, meaning one party has more of an incentive to end the practice:

That's true. Democratic voters cluster around smaller area (big cities) so they also are more prone to gerrymandering.

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Anyway, Democrats should have passed an independent redistricting commission in mid 2010 when polls showed that it was clear that Democrats would likely lose both chambers of the legislature.  

They don't even have to do that.

After losing the election, the general assembly could have met in a Special Session and pass bipartisan redistricting before a new session in January.

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After losing the election, the general assembly could have met in a Special Session and pass bipartisan redistricting before a new session in January.

Perdue tried to make the case for that, but it was too little, too late.

Were the lawmakers on vacation and can't comeback or something? All she has to do was call for a lame duck Special Session.

The bill was already written. All they have to do is vote on it.

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What does all that has happened do to the NC Republican brand?

NC Democrats can make very compelling arguments to moderates why NC Republicans shouldn't be elected.

The NC Democratic Party is already run by a bunch of conservative Democrats rather than a bunch of liberal Democrats anyway.

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I wonder what turnout is going to be like in 2014 in North Carolina.

These extremist Republican policies might mobilize the Democratic base to turnout in large number in a normally low turnout midterm election.

Of cause the election is well over a year away so I wonder how long they will be able to keep up the pressure.

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New poll: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/06/nc-voters-continue-to-look-down-on-state-government.html

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Democrats should convert the anger over North Carolina legislators into energy to turnout the base in 2014.

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Democrats should convert the anger over North Carolina legislators into energy to turnout the base in 2014.

Which is whats so great about Tillis running

ditto

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I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

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At this point, I would almost see her as an improvement over Tillis, which says a lot about Tillis.

I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

Yes, but they also have to distance themselves from the national party to some extent. A candidate like Heath Shuler could probably steal the majority of my family at this point. Obama, Obamacare and Amnesty are going to keep them voting Republican otherwise, regardless of how much they despise the GOP state government at this point.

Arguably, what North Carolina Democrats need is a Mark Warner.

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Who would be the best person for Hagan to run against?

I am guessing Tillis or Foxx.

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I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

There are actually vulnerable Democrats left in the legislature?  If Republicans hold two thirds of the seats there, Democrats must be down to black majority seats and white liberal areas in the Research Triangle and Asheville. 

Miles, please look into this

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There are actually vulnerable Democrats left in the legislature?  If Republicans hold two thirds of the seats there, Democrats must be down to black majority seats and white liberal areas in the Research Triangle and Asheville.

Looking at the NC SoS site (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/42923/114645/Web01/en/summary.html)

Wow. So many ~55% Republican districts. I wonder how vulnerable those are.

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A full piece in the Charlotte Observer about the tough calculus McCrory and Tillis now have:

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I've read the same article on News & Observer. This is what will probably happen: Tillis will put it up to a vote then McCrory will let it become law without him signing it.

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Miles, what would you rate Hagan's reelection chances?