NJ-11: Frelinghuysen retiring

[KingSweden]

That’s a nice looking lady

God new Jersey is going to be a bloodbath for 2018 republicans isn't it? NJ-02 is on the fast track to being triaged with Van Drew, NJ-11 is now a tossup at worst, NJ-07 is moving towards tossup, NJ-03 is blessed with MacArthur and his Health Care fiasco, and NJ-04's Chris Smith is on the retirement watch-list due to his age and moderation. This congressional map was drawn to be a 6-6, and their is now an outside chance of it being 12-0 in 2019. A total dummymander.

It’ll be 10-2 at the very worst.

[KingSweden]

Frankly I'm hoping for a 10D-2R delegation through redistricting. NJ is prone for incumbent-protection plans, and it's safer long-term for Dems to have two Republican vote sinks (one in Ocean County/southern-inland Monmouth and another in northwest NJ) to avoid a dummymander.

My ideal scenario would be Dems gain NJ-2, 7 and 11 and hope Smith holds off retiring until redistricting (since he wouldn't live in the NW NJ district vote sink). Smith is also probably the best person Democrats can hope for out of that seat.

I think Democrats would have to be pretty satisfied with Jen Beck as well, who seems like the likely replacement if Smith retires any time soon. (There is no indication he will nor should he.)

It would not surprise me if Chris Smith is Dean of the House some day