2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

[KingSweden]

Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

For a moment there I thought my Ignore list had stopped working and this was from Lear.

His spirit channeled through me

[KingSweden]

The Q Poll means per my model that BlueTsunami2018^(C) is back on and I’m headed to Kaye Upton’s house to get it on

[KingSweden]

The Q Poll means per my model that BlueTsunami2018^(C) is back on and I’m headed to Kate Upton’s house to get it on

She will need consoling after her uncle loses to some guy named Paul Clements by 10 points.

*adjusts tie*

Why did you think I was headed over there?

[KingSweden]

Probably people who want Democrats to be able to block legislation but not judges.

Could also be noise/MoE

[KingSweden]

GOP + 3 in Missouri is a disaster lol. I don't even believe that Wagner is vulnerable.

Yep, it's a disaster for the Dems. Considering that they've banked on winning suburban seats like Wagner's...this will be a rough November. I can see the GOP gaining 10 seats at this rate. Just wait for the N. Korea bounce.

Yep, now I know why King Lear has been inactive.

[KingSweden]

Virginia you have the patience of Job. You have my admiration and respect.

[KingSweden]

Virginia you have the patience of Jeb! You have my admiration and respect.

...please clap

[KingSweden]

Jason Ritterreiser is apparently dominating primary polling for WA-08. Having him be the likely D nominee makes me a lot more confident in that seat.

Oh that is good news. Same here.

[KingSweden]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 1977 RV

D 43 (-2)
R 35 (+1)

...and people had the nerve to come at me for talking of a Korea bounce.

You declared that “the blue wave” was dead and the GOP would gain ten seats in the House and that a R+3 GCB in *Missouri* was a disaster for Democrats

[KingSweden]

Morning Consult

Dems: 43% (-1)
GOP: 34% (-1)

They polled Gen Z (18-21 year olds)

Dems: 58%
GOP: 20%

Millennials (22-37 years old)

Dems: 45%
GOP: 28%

That’s a -17 vs a -38

That’s a MASSIVE spread.

I imagine the Gen Z numbers are replicated with younger Millennials, while older ones like myself (1990 and earlier) are probably a bit more conservative overall

[KingSweden]

Yougov

Democrats - 42 (-1)
Republicans - 39 (+1)

You said you'd be gone for a week.

[KingSweden]

Even as Trump's approval increases in the new Monmouth Poll, the Generic Ballot remains essentially the same:

RIP Limo

[KingSweden]

Limo - you’re once again stubbornly refusing to consider what it is about your history on this site, your posting style, and your lack of humility that have brought us to the point where people give you zero benefit of the doubt about your intentions when you add editorial comments or analysis to polls.

[KingSweden]

The Pew poll is not very credible lol.

Explain.

Yes, please do. Throw it in the pile and move on, but Pew isn’t Zogby

[KingSweden]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

Here’s a crazy suggestion - what if one took GCB polls, district polls, state polls, fundraising, recruiting and recent election results and viewed the picture comprehensively rather than cherry picking data that confirms your priors and then trolling the board about how you’re right and everybody else is wrong?

[KingSweden]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

Here’s a crazy suggestion - what if one took GCB polls, district polls, state polls, fundraising, recruiting and recent election results and viewed the picture comprehensively rather than cherry picking data that confirms your priors and then trolling the board about how you’re right and everybody else is wrong?

Something else of course to be taken into account is that Morganelli is to the Lehigh Valley like Tim Holden used to be for Schuylkill. Insanely popular in his seat, but not to liked outside the region for his rightish views. I have a hard time seeing Moganelli loose.

I mean - yes, that too, but your response is actual analysis rather than Hofoid’s craptastic buffoonery

[KingSweden]

Love live the chart:

Huh; I havent seen that dip in GCB averages myself so IDK where the chart is pulling it from

I’m curious about this too. What is Morris’s average?

[KingSweden]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Great poll for Democrats!

I don't want Morganelli to win the primary, but at the same time I do want him to win because I think his immigration views actually do line up well with the composition of this district (Lou Barletta was very popular in NE PA even in the Obama years because of this) and he would make this an instant pickup

It’s an odd district now that it combines Northampton, which is more NEPA, and suburban Lehighz

Still, I’ve seen no sign that Morganelli will lose. We’re looking at potentially 3 instapickups in PA

[KingSweden]

I kind of want to ask G. Elliot Morris to do an AMA here lol

God me too can you imagine?

[KingSweden]

I thought we already established that Reuters is trash.

I don’t think so. You wind up with outliers every now and then. QPac has been crazy noisy of late.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

I’m still of a mind that NC/9 and 13 would fall before this district does

[KingSweden]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Morganelli is trash but if he won the Dem Primary this district is his as long as he wants. Unless he gets booted in the Dem primary, of course, which will always be a risk considering his... interesting views on immigration.

I'd rather have Edwards win the seat and have it start as Lean D/Toss-Up every cycle than have Morganelli hold it down for decades.

[KingSweden]

States like Nevada have become way more diverse since the 1990s, but democrats aren't doing much better in Nevada today than they were in the 1990s...

Yes, it is kind of amazing how that has worked out. There is good reason to think that Democrats will have consolidated their power over NV after the Nov elections, but from 2000-now, it's not really been a good time for them. They have had the state House locked down mostly since the 1930s, but that's it. They haven't controlled the Governors mansion for 20 years. That is pretty bad, all things considered. They did better pre-1998.

Edit: I wonder if the inability of Nevada Democrats to consolidate power sooner is due to the post-Reagan shift of WWCs to the Republican Party. NV's changing demographics has helped balance it out, but there seems to be a similar pattern at play here. Or maybe Republicans just had a good run of it, with the electorate generally being too swingy for Democrats to lock down.

Having the world-conquering titan that is Brian E. Sandoval helps too, of course.

[KingSweden]

Looks like YouGov is out today at +9 and Morning Consilt at +7, per DKE