2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

Nice result for CA-45, which I have as the 5th or 6th likeliest CA seat to flip

[KingSweden]

Saw somewhere that Rasmussen was D+6, I believe on DKE

[KingSweden]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet.

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/OH12Results_ECU.pdf

OH-12 Special Election - PPP for Ends Citizens United (D)

Troy Balderson (R) - 45
Danny O'Connor (D) - 43

Trump won this district 53-42.

Not bad results this soon after the primary. It’d be an easier out if that crazy lady had won on the GOP side though.

[KingSweden]

I am shocked that some random lady is trailing by more than a former Congressman in an NRCC internal

[KingSweden]

The takeaway from Limo's posts continues to be that he is as much a hack as the people he no doubt thinks of here, except he's a Republican-favoring hack, who has tunnel vision just as much as anyone else, except for his own narrative. So tbqh he (you, Limo) are in no position to be calling out other people for their unwavering beliefs in a Dem wave this November. You're even worse, just for the opposite.

He can be a GOP hack if he wants. But the "I'm just an oh so concerned elitist latte sipping Northern Virginia limousine liberal" troll schtick is getting old.

If a Democrat troll made the account "WhiteTrashConservative" with an R-WV avatar, and started spamming every thread with "howdy ya'll this dem wave sure is gonna be big with all them darkies votin an such!" something tells me they wouldn't last very long.

Challenge accepted!

[KingSweden]

That's a very odd way of asking questions...

Can we even count that as a generic ballot poll?

I don't see why not; I'd count it as D 45, R 43.  It's just more nuanced than the typical GCB question, just like some Trump approval polls separate strong approval/disapproval from somewhat approve/disapprove, but others don't.

Previous CBS poll had D+9. Dems losing ground in both internet and high-quality polls with their 538 lead at its lowest point since May.

Looks like this is YouGov rather than SSRS, so while both are affiliated with CBS it is not, technically, the same poll.

[KingSweden]

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/week/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180521/collapsed/true

GOP leading according to newest reuters poll if I am reading it right

Reuters's new model is already discredited.

What do you mean by discredited? As in you don’t like the results or there are known statistical issues with it? Do you have methodological problems with it? I’m not familiar with how Reuters does their poll.

I don’t think it’s discredited, but there’s been discussion over how they changed their model. If they did make tweaks, it’s derived multiple results that are very GOP friendly

[KingSweden]

I don’t think anyone is suggesting the poll is accurate. The question is, what is it about the methodology that is different? If it’s a matter of having a rosier turnout model for Rs but also just seeing shifting opinions toward Rs, then it should get thrown in the average. If it’s more experimental, than it shouldn’t be thrown in the average yet until we see how it moves and reacts to shifting opinions.

If the generic ballot is actually down to around even, then an R+5.5 or whatever poll isn’t out of the question. It’s also possible that their turnout model tilts a few (or more than a few) points to the right, making the information valuable in change terms of not in absolute or top line terms.

It’s also possible this is just an outlier like we see all the time. Remember that CNN poll with D+20 or whatever? That looks as out of place next to the average as this does now, just in the other direction.

Yeah it’s worth recalling that CNN poll came out when the averages were more like D+10-11

[KingSweden]

I don’t think anyone is suggesting the poll is accurate. The question is, what is it about the methodology that is different? If it’s a matter of having a rosier turnout model for Rs but also just seeing shifting opinions toward Rs, then it should get thrown in the average. If it’s more experimental, than it shouldn’t be thrown in the average yet until we see how it moves and reacts to shifting opinions.

If the generic ballot is actually down to around even, then an R+5.5 or whatever poll isn’t out of the question. It’s also possible that their turnout model tilts a few (or more than a few) points to the right, making the information valuable in change terms of not in absolute or top line terms.

It’s also possible this is just an outlier like we see all the time. Remember that CNN poll with D+20 or whatever? That looks as out of place next to the average as this does now, just in the other direction.

Yeah it’s worth recalling that CNN poll came out when the averages were more like D+10-11

Sure, but the difference was still 10 points or so off the average. R+5.5 is about the same in the other direction - should’ve been clear I meant adjusted for the difference in average.

I apologize if I was unclear, I was agreeing with your statement.

[KingSweden]

Heads Up: LL didn't post anything of substance. No need to click "show"

“LL didn’t post anything of substance”

Does that need to be said? Haha

[KingSweden]

I believe, per DKE, that Reuters poll LL creamed himself over has a R+4 sample, which would explain quite a bit

[KingSweden]

As a general rule I try to trust polling, but the fact that that these good polls for the Republicans are occurring despite no readily-identifiable cause for these shifts makes me more than a bit skeptical that this is anything other than noise.

It does make me nervous though.

Nothing wrong with being skeptical but vigilant/concerned.

[KingSweden]

Politico/Morning Consult-

Democrat: 42% (-1)
Republican: 36% (-2)

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-8a20-d9c0-a1f3-feb194ce0001

Crosstabs-

Dems leading amongst Baby Boomers 43-39%
Dems leading amongst Independents 30-25%
Dems leading amongst moderates 45-24%
Dems leading amongst blacks 73-8%
Dems leading amongst Catholics 45-36%
Dems leading amongst Suburban voters 42-38%
Dems leading amongst Generation Z 47-25%

GOP leading amongst whites 41-37%

GOP has a -22 favorable rating, 33%-55%
Dems have a -11 favorable rating, 38%-49%

A shift of +1 is statistical noise, more or less, but it does suggest that all that crazy movement from Reuters may be because of their sampling

[KingSweden]

Tulchin Research-CA-39: Cisneros 20, Kim and Huff with 14

A Cisneros internal, I believe, so grain of salt

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/999314587194417152

I think this tradeoff would make the Democrats quite happy.

Except in, say, WV or ND.

Though those states are quirky enough that it could be a wash.

[KingSweden]

Tulchin Research-CA-39: Cisneros 20, Kim and Huff with 14

A Cisneros internal, I believe, so grain of salt

Do you take the Change Research polls (non-internals, Cisneros is leading Democrat) with a grain of salt?

No, that one Id lend more credence to.

[KingSweden]

I’ve presumed Young Kim would be the nominee for long enough I have no idea who Bob Huff is.

[KingSweden]

The wearing of jorts past the age of 20 should frankly be a capital offense so Barbara is doing God’s work here

[KingSweden]

Why are people obsessing over every movement of the Reuters poll?

It’s Memorial Day week and Atlasians need fapping material

[KingSweden]

The big news on that site is that he's a cuck who wants to see his wife get plowed on a big pile of money

Yeah that site was a rabbit hole now wasn’t it

[KingSweden]

So who’s gonna unironically endorse this guy?

[KingSweden]

LimoLiberal I've put links to generic poll listings at the top, so you can stop posting tweets with useless "periodic updates" from now on.

Your are a godsend.

[KingSweden]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

[KingSweden]

Does anyone still have that chart with the current average trend and the prior years’ average trends?

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

Indeed, we will be so grateful for his constant warnings.  We would have never been prepared for the inevitable “red monsoon” that stopped the blue wave brought ashore otherwise.  We will shower him with praise and picnics.

One of us might even throw down and get him a medium quality hooker

[KingSweden]

Kind of surprised by how low Bush's "very negative"s were back in late 2006.

In 2006 the dam really broke in the summer and fall with the Mark Foley stuff. Dems probably don’t nab the House and miss out on 2-3 Senate seats without it